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African LGBT campaigners will make marginal gains

Location:

AFRICA

A high-profile judgement does not portend wide-ranging continental reform

Trump’s Iran choice will play into Middle East crises

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

In a framework of heightened confrontation with Iran, national-level controversies across the region could be magnified

French elections are likely to see shift to the right

Location:

FRANCE

With a divided Left, the presidential elections may become a competition between the centre-right and the far-right

AI augmentation and automation will alter job markets

Location:

INT

AI will lift global economic productivity over the coming decades, but also transform labour markets

Long-term shifts to weaken traditional EU left

Location:

EU

Traditional left-wing parties are struggling for electoral success, despite the economic crisis

Tackling terrorism in Europe will become tougher

Location:

EUROPE

The variety of terrorist threats and operational challenges are complicating counter-measures

Northern Kosovo will remain a flashpoint

Location:

SERBIA/KOSOVO

Western states are seeking to prevent conflict between Kosovo’s government and its Serb minority

Trade shifting from multilateralism to smaller groups

Location:

INT

The WTO meeting may struggle to reach agreement on fishing and farming, let alone on dispute resolution or digital trade

German election could bring change of coalition

Location:

GERMANY

Chancellor Merkel has a good chance of staying in power, but possibly with different coalition partners