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This paper aims to propose a methodology for managerial decision-making based on scenario planning and a multi-criteria approach.

The methodology consists of two stages, one referring to scenario planning and the other to multi-criteria decision-making. The methodology was applied to a company in the Brazilian agribusiness sector, aiming to help managers face the current situation of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The proposal addresses a set of simple methods for developing a scenario analysis based on different approaches. Although the methodology may allow the future addition of new, perhaps more robust strategies, the purpose of the analysis is not only to tell the decision maker which strategy should be adopted, but also to provide greater knowledge about the problem and possible scenarios.

The contribution of this research is to propose a structured and easily applicable methodology that can help managers in the future planning of their companies, especially when faced with complex decisions and high level of uncertainty.

The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the contingent use of rational, intuitive and political decision-making in R&D.

This research is based on a study in an R&D department of a multinational high-tech firm in the Netherlands. The study consists of a case study design, focusing on four embedded cases, longitudinally studying each case.

The literature distinguishes three dimensions of innovation decision-making processes: rational, intuitive and political. By studying these interwoven dimensions over time, this study finds that the dominant use of each of these dimensions differs across the innovation process. There is an emphasis on intuitive decision-making in an early phase, followed by more emphasis on political decision-making, and moving to more emphasis on rational decision-making in a later phase of the R&D process. Furthermore, the predominant choice in a specific innovation phase for one of the three decision-making dimensions is influenced by the decision-making dimension that is dominantly employed in the preceding phase.

This study contributes to the innovation decision-making literature by developing and applying a model that distinguishes rational, intuitive and political decision-making dimensions, the interactions among these dimensions in innovation decision-making in R&D, and the contingency of these dimensions upon the innovation phase. It calls for further research into the contingent nature of innovation decision-making processes.

For practitioners this study has two relevant insights. First it highlights the importance and usefulness of intuitive and political decision-making in addition to the prevailing emphasis on rational decision-making. Second, practitioners may be more alert to consciously changing their dominant decision-making approach across the phases of the innovation process. Third, companies may adjust their human resource policies to this study’s findings.

The literature on rational, intuitive and political decision-making is quite extensive. However, research has hardly studied how these decision-making dimensions develop in conjunction, and over time. This paper reports on a first study to do so and finds that the dominant use of these dimensions is contingent upon the phase of the R&D process and on the decision-making dimensions used in earlier phases. The study suggests that using a contingency approach can help to further integrate the debate in research and practice.

The paper focuses on how knowledge visualization supports the development of a particular multiobjective decision-making problem as a portfolio optimization problem in the context of interorganizational collaboration between universities and a large automotive company. This paper fits with the emergent knowledge visualization literature because it helps to explain decision-making related to the development of a multiobjective optimization model in Lean Product Development settings. We investigate how using ad hoc visual tools supports knowledge translation and knowledge sharing, enhancing managerial judgment and decision-making.

The empirical case in this study concerns the setting up of a multiobjective decision-making model as a portfolio optimization problem to analyze and select alternatives for upgrading the lean production process quality at an FCA plant.

The study shows how knowledge visualization and the associated tools work to enable knowledge translation and knowledge sharing, supporting decision-making. The empirical findings show why and how knowledge visualization can be used to foster knowledge translation and sharing among individuals and from individuals to groups. Knowledge visualization is understood as both a collective and interactional process and a systematic approach where different players translate their expertise, share a framework and develop common ground to support decision-making.

From a theoretical perspective, the paper expands the understanding of knowledge visualization as a system of practices that support the development of a multiobjective decision-making method. From an empirical point of view, our results may be useful to other firms in the automotive industry and for academics wishing to develop applied research on portfolio optimization.

The research explores indecision of strategic leaders in a complex case organization. This research offers new insights into the drivers of indecision of upper echelons decision-makers and explores the perceived consequences of the decision-makers' indecision.

Following a review of literature on upper echelons theory and strategic decision-making, indecision and the antecedents and consequences of indecision, the research follows a qualitative exploratory design. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among 20 upper echelons decision-makers with responsibility across 19 Sub-Saharan African countries in a case company. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data.

The findings reveal that specific organizational, interpersonal and personal factors work together to drive strategic leader indecision in a complex organization. Strategic leader indecision brings about several negative organizational consequences and demotivates team members.

The findings are based on a single-case exploratory design but represent geographical diversity.

The research cautions organizations to deal with the drivers of strategic leader indecision to help avoid potential negative consequences of stifled organizational performance and team demotivation.

The study offers previously unknown insights into strategic leader indecision. This study builds on current literature on the antecedents and consequences of indecision and has a new research setting of strategic leader indecision in a complex organization.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how far technology and information enable, facilitate or support the planning and implementation decisions in humanitarian vaccine cold chains for vaccination campaigns. The authors specifically focus on three emerging technologies that have the potential to create more flexible conditions in the field, and identify the need to further explore the link between uncertainty, information and irreversibility.

The authors present a basic structure for the analysis of cold chain disruptions in terms of three distinct yet connected layers of deficient infrastructure and capacity, information gaps and failures in decision making. The authors then review three humanitarian technologies and their impact on vaccine campaigns along these layers. From there, a research agenda is developed to address research gaps this review brought forward.

Three critical research gaps in the areas of technology innovation for humanitarian vaccine cold chain management are presented. The authors argue that technology to improve capacity, information and decisions need to be aligned, and that the areas of uncertainty, information and irreversibility require further investigation to achieve this alignment. In this way, the paper contributes to setting the research agenda on vaccine cold chains and connects humanitarian logistics to technology, information management and decision making.

This paper presents the humanitarian vaccine cold chain problem from an original angle by illuminating the implications of technology and information on the decisions made during the planning and implementation phases of a vaccine campaign. The authors develop an agenda to provide researchers and humanitarians with a perspective to improve cold chain planning and implementation at the intersection of technology, information and decisions.

The emerging business partner role of management accountants (MAs) results in an increased requirement of MAs to make business decisions. Frame dependence cognitive biases regularly influence decisions made in conditions of uncertainty, as is the case in business decision-making. Consequently, this study aims to examine susceptibility of MAs to frame dependence bias.

A survey was conducted among an international sample of practising MAs. The proportion of MAs influenced by framing bias was analysed and compared to findings in other populations. Logistic regression was then used to determine whether MAs who exhibit a higher preference for evidence-based (as opposed to intuitive) decision-making are more susceptible to framing bias.

Despite a comparatively high preference for evidence-based decision-making, the prevalence of framing bias among MAs is comparable to that of other populations. A higher preference for evidence-based decision-making was found to only be associated with higher susceptibility to endowment effect bias.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively examine framing bias for MAs as a group of decision-makers. Additionally, this study’s sample consists of practising MAs, and not only students.

This study aims to propose a method known as the fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (fuzzy TOPSIS) for complex project selection in organizations. To fulfill study objectives, the factors responsible for making a project complex are collected through literature review, which is then analyzed by fuzzy TOPSIS, based on three decision-makers’ opinions.

The selection of complex projects is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process for global organizations. Traditional procedures for selecting complex projects are not adequate due to the limitations of linguistic assessment. To crossover such limitation, this study proposes the fuzzy MCDM method to select complex projects in organizations.

A large-scale engine manufacturing company, engaged in the energy business, is studied to validate the suitability of the fuzzy TOPSIS method and rank eight projects of the case company based on project complexity. Out of these eight projects, the closeness coefficient of the most complex project is found to be 0.817 and that of the least complex project is found to be 0.274. Finally, study outcomes are concluded in the conclusion section, along with study limitations and future works.

The outcomes from this research may not be generalized sufficiently due to the subjectivity of the interviewers. The study outcomes support project managers to optimize their project selection processes, especially to select complex projects. The presented methodology can be used extensively used by the project planners/managers to find the driving factors related to project complexity.

The presented study deliberately explained how complex projects in an organization could be select efficiently. This selection methodology supports top management to maintain their proposed projects with optimum resource allocations and maximum productivity.

This paper investigates the factors crucial for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in establishing business relationships with banks in Pakistan.

To investigate how SMEs select banking relationships using criteria, such as decision factors, decision-makers, and decision processes, a comprehensive literature review was used to classify SMEs' decision factors for bank selection. A survey questionnaire was distributed to 200 SMEs, randomly selected from the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority database in Pakistan. Probit/Tobit model is estimated to explain the behavior of SMEs.

The results reveal that SMEs consider a bank's Reputation, Price, and Location essential while establishing bank relationships. SMEs tend to terminate relationships with banks when the Price and Location of the bank are considered essential factors in the relationship with the banks. Price and Location are necessary for SMEs to reduce banking relationships. The SMEs also tend to reduce if they get attractive offers, or the SMEs are recommended to make a banking relationship. This study also provides intuitions for bank policymakers to design policies to retain SME customers and attract new business relationships.

The research emphasizes the importance of competitive and transparent pricing strategies in designing products for SMEs. Banks must prioritize their Reputation and credibility to attract and retain relationships with SMEs.

The study attempts to provide evidence on the SME-Bank relationship focusing on the factors that are crucial for SMEs to decide while establishing business relationships with banks. Also, most of the related literature focuses on developed countries; this research adds to the literature on SMEs' behavior, particularly in a developing country's context.

In a work environment marked by unprecedented complexity, volatility and ambiguity, managers must accomplish their objectives while navigating many challenges. This paper aims to investigate potential interrelations among environmental transformations, cognitive biases and strategic decisions. In particular, the purpose of the study is to crystallize the state of art on the impact of cognitive biases on strategic decisions, in the context of environmental transformations.

The authors have conducted a systematic literature review to identify existing relevant work on this topic and to detect potential avenues for future research.

The findings highlight how decision-making is influenced and enabled by internal (e.g. perception) and external factors (e.g. digitalization). Specifically, the strategic role of cognitive biases appears to be crucial when investigating the related impact on strategic decisions in times of environmental transformation.

Implications are drawn for scholars and practitioners interested in evaluating the role of specific decision-making determinants for the formation and implementation of strategic decisions. In this sense, we stress that decision-makers need to manage their cognitive biases and select the right information out of a wide data set in order to adapt to environmental transformations.

By systematizing the literature review, potential interrelations among environmental transformations, cognitive biases and strategic decisions are identified. Furthermore, the primary phases that drive the decision-making process are proposed (analysis, decision, onboarding and control).

Drawing on the literature on professional ignorance, here defined in affirmative terms as the capacity to act regardless of the incompleteness of available information in organizations and professional communities, the article reports empirical material from an urban development project wherein policy makers' instructions are vague and, in certain domains, inconsistent with market conditions.

Urban development projects regularly include uncertainty and risk taking, and policy makers' stated objectives regarding project goals may be incomplete or merely signal a political ambition. In such situations, first-line project participants need to make decisions as if uncertainties regarding policy objectives are manageable and preferably minimal. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the proposition that professional ignorance is a key mechanism in incomplete or imperfect governance systems.

Project participants actively questioned policy but acted on the instructions just the same, which is indicative of how professional ignorance is supportive of governance system that relies on first-line market actors and agencies to implement also incomplete or vaguely stated policy objectives. Incomplete policies derive from challenges in political deliberation and bargaining processes, uncertainty regarding the future and shifting preferences among policy makers and constituencies more widely. In practice, incomplete policies regularly include issues for first-level actors (e.g. on the urban development project level) to handle and to reconcile in their day-to-day work.

On basis of an empirical study of a major urban development project, the study contributes to a growing literature that recognizes the value of professional ignorance in governance systems and in project management practice. The study invites further scholarly research that takes an affirmative of professional ignorance but without overlooking its risks and potential malfunctions.