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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2019

Debojyoti Das and Kannadhasan Manoharan

The purpose of this paper is to study the co-movement and market integration dynamics of the emerging/frontier stock markets in South Asia (India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) with a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the co-movement and market integration dynamics of the emerging/frontier stock markets in South Asia (India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) with a portfolio management perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

Scholars in the past have documented the limitation of standard econometric techniques such as co-integration analysis to capture this phenomenon. The other econometric technique widely used in integration and comovement literature is dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. This method captivates the time-varying correlations, although frequency information is absent. The wavelet-based analysis decomposes the time-series data in a time-frequency domain, which is largely useful to fund managers and policy makers. This study examines the regional integration in selected South Asian markets using wavelet analysis.

Findings

The results suggest some degree of market integration, however weak as compared to regional integrations in developed markets. Pakistan and India were found to be the potential leaders at varying time scales in the region. Weaker co-movement phenomena may offer ample arbitrage opportunities to investors in this region. In addition, the authors also find that the structure of correlation changes after some of the major macroeconomic events.

Originality/value

This study is among the first to examine co-movement and integration of stock returns in a time-frequency domain for South Asia. In addition, the authors also highlight weak integration in these markets, which may be beneficial for portfolio diversification.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2020

Debojyoti Das, M Kannadhasan and Malay Bhattacharyya

The study aims to understand the role of different streams of oil shocks (demand, supply and risk shocks) on the oil-importing and exporting countries' stock returns. The study…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to understand the role of different streams of oil shocks (demand, supply and risk shocks) on the oil-importing and exporting countries' stock returns. The study also examines the impact of crude oil shocks across the economic regimes and market states. Besides, the role of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 in shaping the oil–stock relationship is also investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors revisit the impact of oil shocks on emerging equity markets by using the novel shock decomposition algorithm proposed by Ready (2018). The authors consider 24 emerging equity markets for the period spanning over July 15, 2002, to June 18, 2018, and bifurcate them based on oil dependence. The authors use rolling and dynamic conditional correlation analysis to understand the time-varying co-movements between oil prices and stock returns. The regime and state-specific dependence of stock returns on the structural oil shocks are captured by the Markov regime switching and quantile regression models.

Findings

The authors find that the demand shocks are positively associated with stock markets, whereas the supply shocks are negatively related, except in some of the oil-exporting countries. The risk-based shocks also appear to have a negative association with stocks. The authors do not find evidence of strong regime dependence and the direction of relationship across the high and low regimes is somewhat stable. Further, the authors observe an intense oil–stock relationship in the bearish market conditions. Besides, the authors also report evidences of changes in oil–stock relationship onset the GFC.

Originality/value

This is among the first studies to use the oil shock decomposition algorithm of Ready (2018) in the context of emerging equity markets. Additionally, oil shocks' role on the stock market movements across the regimes and market states is studied comprehensively. Thus, the nature of oil shock and the extent to which the emerging markets are exposed is observed in this study.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 March 2024

Pablo Agnese, Pedro Garcia del Barrio, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Fernando Perez de Gracia

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.

Findings

The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.

Originality/value

Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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