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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 April 2019

Júlio Lobão

The literature provides extensive evidence for seasonality in stock market returns, but is almost non-existent concerning the potential seasonality in American depository receipts…

2832

Abstract

Purpose

The literature provides extensive evidence for seasonality in stock market returns, but is almost non-existent concerning the potential seasonality in American depository receipts (ADRs). To fill this gap, this paper aims to examine a number of seasonal effects in the market for ADRs.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines four ADRs for the period from April 1999 to March 2017 to look for signs of eight important seasonal anomalies. The authors follow the standard methodology of using dummy variables for the time period of interest to capture excess returns. For comparison, the same analysis on two US stock market indices is conducted.

Findings

The results show the presence of a highly significant pre-holiday effect in all return series, which does not seem to be justified by risk. Moreover, turn-of-the-month effects, monthly effects and day-of-the-week effects were detected in some of the ADRs. The seasonality patterns under analysis tended to be stronger in emerging market-based ADRs.

Research limitations/implications

Overall, the results show that significant seasonal patterns were present in the price dynamics of ADRs. Moreover, the findings lend support to the idea that emerging markets are less efficient than developed stock markets.

Originality/value

This is the most comprehensive study to date for indication of seasonal anomalies in the market for ADRs. The authors use an extensive sample that includes recent significant financial events such as the 2007/2008 financial crisis and consider ADRs with different characteristics, which allows to draw comparisons between the differential price dynamics arising in developed market-based ADRs and in the ADRs whose underlying securities are traded in emerging markets.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 24 no. 48
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 June 2018

Faisal Abduleh Salman Irag Al-Najaf, Mahdi Salehi and Hind Shafeeq Nimr Al-Maliki

The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock…

2285

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock Exchanges.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the infrastructure models of the capital market, the daily stock prices were calculated for the sacred and non-sacred months. As the data of this study are non-stationary, the AMIRA time-series model was used for better understanding of the model or future projections. The dependent variables of this study are the daily stock indexes for Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges, and independent ones are the sacred and non-sacred months of a lunar year. Data were gathered daily from the financial statements of Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges websites. To test the hypotheses under study, a five-year period from 2012 to 2016 was considered for both Iraqi and Iranian Stock Exchanges, which corresponds with the lunar calendar from 1433-1437AH.

Findings

The obtained results indicated that there is no significant difference in stock prices between the sacred months of Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah and other non-sacred months. However, the stock price in the Iranian Stock Exchange has a significant difference in Rajab and Dhu al-Qaʿdah with other non-sacred months.

Originality/value

The results of this study will reveal more than ever the role of Islamic sacred months for society and users of financial statements to make better financial decisions especially in Islamic emerging markets.

Details

ISRA International Journal of Islamic Finance, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0128-1976

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 August 2022

Pramath Nath Acharya, Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal and Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra

In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to…

1163

Abstract

Purpose

In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to make predictions about the possible future movement by the investors. But literatures have detected certain calendar anomalies where a day(s) in a week or month(s) in a year or a particular event in a year becomes conducive for investors to earn more than the normal. Hence, the purpose of this study is to find out the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, daily time series data of Sensex and Nifty from 1996 to 2021 is used. The study uses month dummies to capture the effect. Different variants of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, both symmetric and asymmetric, are used in the study to model the conditional volatility in the presence month effect.

Findings

This study found the September effect in the return series of both the stock market. Apart from that, asymmetric GARCH models are found to be the best fit model to estimate conditional volatility.

Originality/value

This study is an endeavour to study month of the year effect in the Indian context. This research will provide valuable insight for studying the different calendar anomalies.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2021

A.N. Vijayakumar

Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate…

2614

Abstract

Purpose

Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

Findings

The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract.

Research limitations/implications

These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market.

Practical implications

The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery.

Originality/value

This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 September 2020

Parul Bhatia

The stock market anomalies have been studied across the globe with intermingled results for individual markets. The present study has investigated the financial year effect for…

1344

Abstract

Purpose

The stock market anomalies have been studied across the globe with intermingled results for individual markets. The present study has investigated the financial year effect for Indian stock markets by testing month-of-the-year-effect anomalies.

Design/methodology/approach

The oldest stock exchange's index returns (Bombay Stock Exchange [BSE]) have been tested using ordinary least squares (OLS) and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (ARCH-M) models with Student's t and Student's t-fixed distributions for the period between 1991 and 2019. The Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle-generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH) model has been further used to find out existence of the leverage effect in returns.

Findings

The findings indicated no evidence for anomalies in the Indian stock market which may be used by investors for making unusual returns. However, the volatility in returns has shown weak but significant results due to the financial year impact. The leverage effect has not been found in the financial year cycle change over. The Indian market may be said to be moving towards a state of efficiency, leaving no scope for investors to gauge bizarre profits.

Research limitations/implications

The study has incorporated the Indian context for testing anomalies during the start and end of the financial year cycle. The model may be extended further to developed and developing nations’ markets for testing efficiency in their stock markets during the same cycle.

Originality/value

The paper may be the first of its kind to test for the financial year effect on standalone basis for Indian markets. The paper also adds to the existing literature on testing events’ effect.

Details

Asian Journal of Accounting Research, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2443-4175

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 August 2022

Ismail Olaleke Fasanya

In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global…

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global pandemic, COVID-19, in predicting sector stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considers estimation of dynamic panel data with dynamic common correlated effects estimator and two pair-wise forecast measures, namely Campbell and Thompson (2008) and Clark and West (2007) tests in dealing with the nested predictive models.

Findings

The results show that pandemic uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the different sector returns, implying that sector stock returns decline as the pandemic outbreak becomes more pronounced. While the single predictor model consistently outperforms the historical average model both for in-sample and out-of-sample, controlling for other macroeconomic variables effect improves the forecast accuracy of infectious diseases uncertainty. These results are consistently robust to both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast periods, outliers and heterogeneity. These results have implications for portfolio diversification strategies, which we set aside for future research.

Originality/value

The empirical literature is satiated with studies on how news can predict economic and financial variables, however, the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the stock return predictability especially at the sectoral level is less understudied, this is the main contribution of the study.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 November 2021

Anne Moes, Marieke Fransen, Bob Fennis, Tibert Verhagen and Harry van Vliet

Physical stores are increasingly dependent on impulse visits and the impulse purchases of passers-by. Interactive advertising screens in store windows could help retailers…

4644

Abstract

Purpose

Physical stores are increasingly dependent on impulse visits and the impulse purchases of passers-by. Interactive advertising screens in store windows could help retailers increase impulse-visit urges and impulse-buying urges. However, the effects of interactive screens in physical surroundings have not been studied before. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the effect of interactive screens on impulse urges and gain insight into the underlying mechanism that explains the possible effect.

Design/methodology/approach

An interactive screen was placed in a store window. Using three field experiments, we studied the effect of interactivity-level (high vs low) on the impulse-visit and impulse-buying urges of passers-by, and the mediating role of self-agency in these effects.

Findings

Highly interactive (compared to less interactive) advertising screens in store windows positively affect impulse-visit and impulse-buying urges through self-agency. Retailers can therefore use interactive advertising screens to increase the number of impulse purchases if feelings of self-agency are activated.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the extent to which interactive screens in a store window enhance the impulse-visit and impulse-buying urges of passers-by and the mediating factor of these effects. By conducting three field experiments, we achieved a high external validity and managed to share very reliable results owing to the replication of the findings.

Details

Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-7122

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 February 2018

Ali Murad Syed and Ishtiaq Ahmad Bajwa

This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market…

19070

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on Saudi stock exchange is also tried on.

Design/methodology/approach

The market model is applied to help gauge the expected returns and to illustrate abnormal returns around the event date.

Findings

The results established that Saudi Stock Market does not bear semi-strong form of EMH. How efficient is the Saudi market is also reflected through evidence of significant abnormal returns and post-earnings announcement drift around earning announcements dates.

Research limitations/implications

The authors have not used analysts’ forecast as the expected earnings which are the limitation. As mentioned earlier, the authors used the quarterly earnings of the previous year as a proxy and that proxy could have been replaced by analysts’ forecast. Another limitation is that the trading volume in the event window is not considered.

Practical implications

The behavior of Saudi capital market is of much concern, and the study of this with a perspective of EMH is the significance of this paper.

Social implications

All stakeholders closely watch earnings announcements and its share price movement around the announcement date. Recently, Saudi Arabia has opened its doors to foreign investors, and big foreign investors are going to enter into Saudi capital market, and after their entry, the behavior of market could be different. In the authors’ opinion, this is the right time to study the efficiency of Saudi market before the entry of foreign investors.

Originality/value

This study is based on the gap created by EMH of Saudi market using event methodology, observed in the existing literature, and it will be a contribution to literature.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 13 June 2016

John Kuada

4358

Abstract

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Content available
Article
Publication date: 1 January 2009

Don Johnson

338

Abstract

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 35 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

1 – 10 of 89