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Provides a review of basic appraisal and statistical principles combined with a simple numerical simulation. Suggests two main directions in which the appraisal profession should move. First, because public stock exchanges tend to be more informationally efficient than private property markets, appraisal accuracy can be improved by making increased quantitative use of the information in the share prices of publicly‐traded property companies. Second, it must be recognized that the valuation techniques which are optimal for individual property appraisal are suboptimal for the mass appraisal of aggregate portfolios or indexes of property market values. Suggests that regression‐based techniques based purely on transaction prices may be superior for this latter function.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential value of significant vertical phasing – that is, the addition of five or more stories to an existing building – as a valuable real option in real estate development, in particular for corporate real estate strategy.

The demonstration is done through in‐depth case studies of four major projects in North America: the 24 story, 880,000 square feet expansion of the Health Care Service Corporation building in Chicago; the Court Square Citicorp Campus in New York City; the Bentall Five project in Vancouver; and the Tufts University School of Dental Medicine building in Boston.

Vertical expansion appears to have significant organizational and logistical advantages for corporate developers, such as the ability to keep staff in one building, and the elimination of the need to relocate with its resulting inconvenience and potential to lose employees. Further, the financial analysis indicates that the option to expand vertically is a reasonable way for corporate developers to access convenient expansion space, while limiting their downside risk. Commercial developers on the other hand may find that the ability to scale back designs in the case of market downturns is particularly valuable. The case studies also confirm by example that the vertical expansion of buildings is technically possible. Although the process of erecting a major new building on top of a fully occupied building is clearly complex, it is not extraordinary difficult so long as the possibility of vertical expansion is built into the original design.

Vertical expansion of buildings has not been appreciated as an attractive feasible option for flexible development of real estate in a risky environment. These case studies and analysis bring this possibility to the attention of the real estate industry and corporate real estate managers.

This study examines the issue of cross‐continental publishing in real estate research to understand the research interaction between the two major English‐speaking countries and to determine if a home bias exists. This study also determines the extent to which authors from other countries publish in US and UK journals, and provide a ranking of non‐US universities and authors. The survey of top US and UK real estate journals from 1993 through 1998 reveals that a home bias exists. The home bias concentration is higher in US journals than in UK journals, while UK journals exhibit more balanced origins, emanating not only from the USA/Canada, but also from Australia, New Zealand and Asia. In addition, the study reveals that the Universities of Reading, Ulster and Glasgow are well placed among European universities, while the National University of Singapore ranks well in Asia. Top US researchers tend to publish exclusively in US journals; likewise the same is observed for UK researchers. However, some notable exceptions are observed. Finally, a possible reason for the home bias could be the different research approaches undertaken by US and UK journals.

The purpose of this paper is to decompose and measure the microstructure of property investment returns for Tokyo’s residential property markets in as much detail as possible in comparison with office market.

Using enterprise value data for property investment trust companies composed of share prices available on capital markets, this study proposed a method of estimating property investment returns corresponding to changes in capital markets, and clarified the distortion in capitalization rate that are formed based on property appraisal prices.

The results for residential property showed that as building floor space increased, income and price increased while the discount rate decreased. In particular, a higher return could be obtained from office property than residential property by investing in larger-scale properties. Building age lowered asset price and income for both residential and office property, especially for residential property.

In Japan, investors believe that investment returns are high for properties close to the city centre, relatively new properties and those with large design or floor space. Therefore, this study first measured how asset prices, income and asset price–income ratios that comprise property investment returns change based on differences in these property characteristics. Second, the reliability/distortion of information that can be observed on the property investment market was measured. Furthermore, there was a significant divergence between discount rates and risk premiums formed by asset or space markets versus capital markets.

The differences of discount rate and risk premium formed by asset markets versus capital markets indicate that appraisal prices have biases. Thus, when it comes to property investment decisions, it is essential to make active use not just of property investment returns based on appraisal prices formed by asset markets but also information formed by capital markets.

A greater difference was generated in a shrinking market, suggesting that analysing property returns estimated on asset market information alone could lead to erroneous investment decisions.

This research is the first to use the enterprise value data from real estate investment trust companies composed of share prices available on capital markets for calculating discount rate and risk premium in property market.

Research impact has taken on increased importance at both a micro- and macro-level and is a key factor today in shaping the careers of real estate researchers. This has seen a range of research impact metrics become global benchmarks when assessing research impact at the individual academic level and journal level. Whilst recognising the limitations of research impact metrics, this paper uses these research impact metrics to identify the leading research impact researchers in real estate, as well as the leading real estate journals in the real estate impact space. The nexus between research quality and research impact is also articulated. As well as focusing on research quality, strategies are identified for the effective incorporation of research impact into a real estate researcher's agenda to assist their research careers; particularly for Early Career Researchers in real estate.

The research impact profile of over 150 real estate researchers and 22 real estate journals was assessed using Google Scholar and Publish or Perish. Using the research impact metrics of the h-index, total citations and i10, the leading high impact real estate researchers as well as the high impact real estate journals are identified.

Based in these research impact metrics, the leading real estate researchers in impactful real estate research are identified. Whilst being US focused, there is clear evidence of increasing roles by ERES, AsRES and PRRES players. The leading real estate journals in the impact space are identified, including both real estate-specific journals and the broader planning/urban policy journals, as well as being beyond just the standard US real estate journals. Researcher career strategies are also identified to see both research quality and research impact included as balanced elements in a real estate researcher's career strategy.

With research impact playing an increased role in all real estate researchers' careers, the insights from this paper provide strong empirical evidence for effective strategies to expand the focus on the impact of their real estate research agendas. This sees a balanced strategy around both research quality and research impact as the most effective strategy for real estate researchers to achieve their research career goals.

Research impact has taken on increased importance globally and is an important factor in shaping real estate researchers' careers. Using research impact metrics, this is the first paper to rigorously and empirically identify the leading research impact players and journals in real estate, as well as identifying strategies for the more effective inclusion of impact in real estate researchers' agendas.

Real option valuation is capable of accounting for uncertainties in residential development projects but still lacks practical adoption due to limited evidence to support application of the theory in practice. The purpose of this paper is to use option valuation to value staging option embedded in residential projects and compare with results from DCF to determine which of the two methods delivers superior results.

The fuzzy payoff method (FPOM), a real options model that uses scenario planning approach to generate a range of figures, from which a single-numerical value is computed for decision-making.

The results showed that the use of a range of figures was able to represent uncertainties to a higher degree of accuracy than the static DCF. As a result, the FPOM was able to capture about 3 per cent of the value of the project that was missed by the DCF. The staging option offers an opportunity to abandon unprofitable phases of a project, thereby limiting downside losses. Thus, real option models are practically applicable to cases in property sector.

Residential property developers must consider flexibility in financial feasibility evaluation of development because of the embedded value in uncertain property projects. It is important to account for optionality in financial evaluation of property projects for value maximisation.

The FPOM has been used for the first time to evaluate a horizontal phasing of a residential development project.

The paper aims to form system dynamics modeling in introduced in conjunction with econometric analysis and planned scenario analysis which will uniquely structure the process whereby the ex ante capital values of the prime retail real estate sector.

The integrated system dynamics model investigates the structural factors affecting a unique expectation‐centered capital value (CV) formation of the prime retail real estate sector, through system dynamics modeling, econometric analysis , and the analysis of planned scenarios. This model extends beyond the usual lags and time line aspect of the price discovery process. The retail real estate sector is investigated within the Singapore context, as this sector changes dynamically and non‐linearly in relation to rental, cost and general demand expectations and to exogenous shocks like the Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. These macroeconomic factors are introduced to investigate their impact on retail space CVs through sensitivity analysis, during the simulation period of 20 quarters from the zero reference quarter (2Q2002).

The paper finds that simulation runs of the expectations‐centered system dynamics model are based on three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for each scenario. Optimistic scenarios' CVs are lower than those of the likely scenario, owing to developers forming excessively high expectations that cannot be met by the actual rental levels. Pessimistic scenarios' CVs are highest. Based on bounded logic and the conditions for all scenarios, there are huge differences in expectations resulting in a large disparity in the endogenous CVs. Low actual rents are primarily due to poor informational efficiency, as the prime retail real estate sector is not transparent enough, and that many transactions are privately closed. Expectations cannot be met as the market information is not disseminated extensively through the agents and players. The scenarios clearly highlight the problem of informational non‐availability in the sector. The main policy implication is a need for a more transparent system of sharing rental and pricing information for the retail real estate sector, which is meaningful for real estate developers, investors and urban planners to sustain the retail real estate sector's viability.

This paper takes system dynamics modeling to the next level of incorporating econometric analysis, to estimate the sensitivity of retail rent to cost and the change in retail rent, for effectively structuring the dynamic process whereby the ex ante CVs of the prime retail sector in Singapore are formed and assessed, through a unique and rigorous expectations‐centered system dynamics model of rents, cost, retail stock, general demand and exogenous factors.

Uncertainties in residential property investment performance require that real estate assets are designed in a flexible manner to respond to impacts of market dynamics. Though estimating the cost of flexibility is straightforward, assessing the economic value of flexibility is not. The purpose of this study is to explore the potential practical application of real option analysis to determine the economic value of a switching output flexibility embedded in a residential property investment in Australia. The study involves the exploration of an optimal strategy for investment in a residential development through real option analysis and valuation of a mixed use investment.

The real option valuation model developed by McDonald and Siegel (1986) is adopted for the evaluation because the switching output flexibility is likened to a perpetual American call option with dividend payout.

Through real option analysis, the economic value of switching output flexibility of the mixed use building was determined to be higher than the initial upfront costs. Moreover, a payoff of about $4million was determined to be the value of the switching output flexibility, therefore justifying upfront investments in flexibility as an uncertainty and risk management tool.

This application is an important demonstration of the practical use of options pricing techniques (real options analysis) and delivers further evidence needed to support the adoption of real option valuation in practice. Flexibility can also enhance risks and uncertainty management in residential property investment better than the adjustment of discount rates.

There is limited evidence on the use of real options techniques for the valuation of switching output flexibility in practice, and this comes as an original application; both the case study and data are all initial applications of switching flexibility in the Australian property market.

The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks?

Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers.

The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant.

The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing.

The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.