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Article
Publication date: 1 November 2006

David Allan

6882

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International Marketing Review, vol. 23 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-1335

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397

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Environmental Management and Health, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0956-6163

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Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2022

Kajal Lahiri, Huaming Peng and Xuguang Simon Sheng

From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical…

Abstract

From the standpoint of a policy maker who has access to a number of expert forecasts, the uncertainty of a combined or ensemble forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. This uncertainty formula should incorporate forecaster discord, as justified by (i) disagreement as a component of combined forecast uncertainty, (ii) the model averaging literature, and (iii) central banks’ communication of uncertainty via fan charts. Using new statistics to test for the homogeneity of idiosyncratic errors under the joint limits with both T and n approaching infinity simultaneously, the authors find that some previously used measures can significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty.

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Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2014

Alan Gillies and Nick Harrop

58

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Clinical Governance: An International Journal, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7274

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Book part
Publication date: 27 June 2015

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Research in Organizational Change and Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-018-0

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Book part
Publication date: 17 March 2022

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Innovative Approaches in Pedagogy for Higher Education Classrooms
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-256-7

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Book part
Publication date: 10 August 2022

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Youth Exclusion and Empowerment in the Contemporary Global Order: Contexts of Economy, Education and Governance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-497-7

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2012

Kadir Beycioglu

8275

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Journal of Management Development, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0262-1711

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Article
Publication date: 20 November 2017

Larry Goodson

433

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Strategy & Leadership, vol. 45 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1087-8572

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Book part
Publication date: 17 March 2022

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Innovative Approaches in Pedagogy for Higher Education Classrooms
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-256-7

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