The empirical properties of benchmark revisions to key US macroeconomic aggregates are examined. News versus noise impact of revisions is interpreted via the cointegration…
The empirical properties of benchmark revisions to key US macroeconomic aggregates are examined. News versus noise impact of revisions is interpreted via the cointegration property of successive benchmark revisions. Cointegration breaks down in the last two years before a benchmark revision. Hence, we conclude that there is some information content in benchmark revisions. This last point is illustrated by reporting that inflation forecasts could be improved by the addition of a time series that reflects benchmark revisions to real GDP. Standard backward- and forward-looking Phillips curves are used to explore the statistical significance of benchmark revisions.
Penn World Tables (PWT) data on output measured at international prices are the data most frequently used in cross‐country growth regressions. These data are subject to revision, and the amendments can be substantial for a minority of countries, although negligible for most. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of data revisions on research results using the data.
Using Hanushek and Kimko's analysis of the relationship between growth and schooling quality and Sala‐i‐Martin's tests of model selection, the authors investigate how much the results of cross‐country growth regressions vary if the most recent vintage (6.2) of PWT data is used, rather than the previous vintage (6.1).
The variation is substantial enough to imply significant differences in research results using different vintages of the PWT data.
The results reinforce the case for examining the sensitivity of growth regressions to outliers, which may be subject to subsequent data revision that might substantially affect the conclusions.
Previous research has identified significant revisions between successive vintages of PWT growth data, but has implied that this is not likely to affect the results of cross‐country growth regressions based on long‐run averages rather than on annual data. The findings suggest that this is not necessarily the case.
Weak-form rationality of fixed-event forecasts implies that forecast revisions should not be correlated. However, significant positive correlations between consecutive…
Weak-form rationality of fixed-event forecasts implies that forecast revisions should not be correlated. However, significant positive correlations between consecutive forecast revisions were found in most USDA forecasts for U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. This study developed a statistical procedure for correction of this inefficiency which takes into account the issue of outliers, the impact of forecast size and direction, and the stability of revision inefficiency. Findings suggest that the adjustment procedure has the highest potential for improving accuracy in corn, wheat, and cotton production forecasts.
Soon after beginning operations, the Federal Reserve established a nationwide network for collecting information about the economy. In 1919, the Fed began tabulating data…
Soon after beginning operations, the Federal Reserve established a nationwide network for collecting information about the economy. In 1919, the Fed began tabulating data by about retail sales, which it viewed as a fundamental measure of consumption. From 1920 until 1929, the Federal Reserve published data about retail sales each month by Federal Reserve district, but ceased to do so after 1929. It continued to compile monthly data on retail sales by reserve district, but this data remained in house. We collected these in-house reports from the archives of the Board of Governors and constructed a consistent series on retail trade at the district level. The new series enhances our understanding of economic trends during the Roaring ‘20s and Great Depression.
This article describes an important project in the history of preservation of Egypt's culture heritage. Initiated by the Egyptian Ministry of Culture and executed by the…
This article describes an important project in the history of preservation of Egypt's culture heritage. Initiated by the Egyptian Ministry of Culture and executed by the Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC), the project involves the Cairo Egyptian museum that contains the world largest collection of ancient Egyptian antiquities (160,000 objects). A major problem in the museum is the lack of a standardised approach for registration, resulting in a variety of unrelated registration schemes and the non‐existence of efficient tools for information dissemination. This project aims to resolve these problems. A team of Egyptologists, museum curators and system analysts, designers and developers defined the basis for work and specified project challenges which included the indexing of all museum objects ensuring cross‐referencing between already used registration schemes. The result has involved the use of multimedia computer technology to establish a complete database of museum objects (text, image and sound) and various cultural products, in addition to the establishment of required procedures and standards to organise the internal museum workflow and the provision of training programmes for staff. The outcome of the project is expected to be profound in enabling researchers and curators to have instant access to any object in the museum and providing the museum's visitors and public with a wealth of information about ancient Egypt.
Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting US output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit…
Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting US output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve their forecast accuracy. These include using different observation windows for estimation, intercept correction, time-varying parameters, break dating, Bayesian shrinkage, model averaging, etc. This paper compares the effectiveness of such methods in real-time forecasting. We use forecasts from univariate time series models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook as benchmarks.
Social media platforms allow near‐unfettered creation and exchange of user generated content (UGC). Drawing from network science, the purpose of this paper is to examine…
Social media platforms allow near‐unfettered creation and exchange of user generated content (UGC). Drawing from network science, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether high and low quality UGC differ in their connectivity structures in Wikipedia (which consists of interconnected user generated articles).
Using Featured Articles as a proxy for high quality, a network analysis was undertaken of the revision history of six different language Wikipedias, to offer a network‐centric explanation for the emergence of quality in UGC.
The network structure of interactions between articles and contributors plays an important role in the emergence of quality. Specifically the analysis reveals that high‐quality articles cluster in hubs that span structural holes.
The analysis does not capture the strength of interactions between articles and contributors. The implication of this limitation is that quality is viewed as a binary variable. Extensions to this research will relate strength of interactions to different levels of quality in UGC.
The findings help harness the “wisdom of the crowds” effectively. Organisations should nurture users and articles at the structural hubs from an early stage. This can be done through appropriate design of collaborative knowledge systems and development of organisational policies to empower hubs.
The network centric perspective on quality in UGC and the use of a dynamic modelling tool are novel. The paper is of value to researchers in the area of social computing and to practitioners implementing and maintaining such platforms in organisations.
The economy grew by 6.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017, unchanged from the third quarter and taking growth for the whole of 2017 to 6.9%. Growth was led by…
Cyclical fluctuations in the level and rate of growth of economic activity have long been a feature of the British economy. The ability to forecast “turning points” (peaks and troughs) in business activity is of crucial importance for changes in companies' stockholding policy, hiring policy, capital budgeting, and many other aspects of corporate appraisal.
Britain is currently undergoing a severe economic recession which has increased the number of registered unemployed to over 3 million. Employment has fallen dramatically, with certain manufacturing industries recording employment declines of over 40 per cent since 1978. This article examines recent trends in retail employment and is based on a more detailed paper on retail employment and the recession presented to the Annual Conference of the Institute of British Geographers in January.