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The establishment of a currency union is a topical issue in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). The subject of currency union formation needs to be reassessed in light of the recent efforts towards the economic integration of west African countries. This study employs the Markov Switching Model (MSM) to determine whether a currency union in WAMZ is feasible. The study analyzes the regime switching behavior in WAMZ countries’ foreign exchange markets before and after the formation of the union. The contribution of this study is two-fold. First, the study accounts for the success or otherwise of the latest efforts to integrate the fiscal and monetary strategies in the zone. Secondly, the study contributes to the literature on the currency union literature in WAMZ by using Markov Switching Model (MSM) to generate novel results. The results of the study revealed that prior to the WAMZ formation, the real exchange rates of member states were more divergent. In contrast, a growing but marginal, convergence was observed after the formation of the zone amongst four (Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Gambia, and Liberia) of the six countries. The authors conclude that while WAMZ is on course for establishing a currency union, their monetary authorities must work together, particularly with Ghana and Liberia, to synchronize their policy efforts, and policy makers must implement policies to strengthen harmonious trade interactions.

This study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.

In this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.

It can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.

Quantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.

The Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.

The OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.

In this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

The purpose of this paper is to enhance our understanding of effects of International Clearing Unions on the exchange market pressure (EMP). Using Asian Clearing Union (ACU) as an example of a typical International Clearing Union, the authors infers that ACU has not been very successful in synchronizing the EMP in the region. Other countries that are not members of such clearing union but are interested in monetary cooperation with other countries should consider the behavior of their EMP indices before attempting any form of integration. The study also provides a generic methodology for using EMP as an indicator for predicting the feasibility of monetary cooperation across countries.

An EMP model using the median absolute deviation is derived to reflect the policy preferences of each country. The weights for change in foreign reserves and interest rate differential are derived using analytical models. The index is then applied to ACU as a case study using monthly data from 2006 to 2015 for Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Iran. The descriptive statistics are studied to find the possibility of short-run relationship between the exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves and interest rate differential. The longitudinal data set generated is checked for cointegration to evaluate the EMPs of the countries.

The study finds that the EMP of ACU members’ shows similarity only in short-term movement but have no cointegration of EMP indices indicating the absence of long-term relationship. The absence of long-term cointegration of EMP for ACU members also indicates that ICU membership may not necessarily lead to similarity in exchange rate policies that facilitate the formation of a currency union. Creation of an ICU is not a sufficient condition for the formation of a currency union. The study also finds that the sample countries have faced persistent depreciation pressures in the period. The preferred tool for the management of EMP is direct intervention by sale and purchase of foreign currency. Interest rate changes are found to have the most significant effect on EMP.

The EMP model limits itself only to the study of exchange rates, foreign reserves and interest rates. Exchange rate variation and policy responses there to are known to be driven by other factors such as speculation, political factors, autonomous capital flows and micro-level dynamics of exchange markets like order flows among others. The EMP model is a simplification of the market dynamics and does not look for associations on the account of these factors. The model is evaluated for only one ICU where member countries regulate exchange rates. The study of ICUs that comprises free float currencies and pegged currencies may yield different results.

Results indicate that the member of any ICU such as ACU cannot assume that its participation will serve as a foundation for creating higher forms of economic unions such as currency unions. In the absence of any long-term relationship between the EMP of countries, any attempt by these countries may cause the exchange rates to deviate further. This leads to the conclusion that the members of ACU should avoid any attempts to form currency unions or use a common currency for its settlement.

Various countries that are considering the formation of currency union or the use of a common currency peg may like to examine its feasibility using EMP as a tool. Using EMP, they may be able to derive short-term and long-term strategies for pursuing their objectives.

There are few other studies that use EMP as an index for measuring the feasibility of formation of a currency union among countries that are the member of an ICU. While earlier studies apply EMP to a group of countries, none attempt to modify the index to reflect the EMP that is likely to affect central bank policy action. Few studies have attempted to use EMP to study the feasibility of formation of a currency union in South Asia based on exchange rate markets itself.

The paper discusses recent changes in conventional wisdom about the optimality of fixed and flexible exchange rates. It develops the important difference between traditional and hard currency fixing. The main part of the paper analyzes the traditional benefits and costs of fixed currencies, how they are changed by first modifications of and second fundamental challenges to the Keynesian paradigm. The last part reviews empirical finding that fixed currencies hard currency fixing leads to a higher economic growth.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate inflation convergence within the East African Community (EAC) as it aspires to become a currency union.

An unobserved dynamic factor model was used to decompose the variation in inflation into a component that is common across the countries in the EAC region and a component that is country specific. Convergence was measured by the percentage of variation in inflation that is common across countries.

The estimated results from the dynamic factor model for the pre‐EAC Treaty (1981:3 to 2000:2) period and post‐EAC Treaty (2000:3 to 2009:1) period suggest that the percentage variation in inflation in the EAC that is explained by the common regional component increased significantly during the post‐Treaty period.

One of the limitations of this paper is that it does not address the mechanism through which the convergence in a currency union is achieved. Future research should try to examine the link between convergence and different macroeconomic policies.

This paper suggests that the push towards forming a currency union in East Africa has led to a greater degree of inflation synchronization across different countries in the region.

The main contribution of this paper is to use an unobserved component model to estimate the degree of inflation synchronization in East African countries.

When sectoral shocks hit a large, regionally heterogeneous economy, it is likely that regions with sectoral specialization will be affected in different ways. In these cases, it might be optimal for the country to decentralize the currency into a number of regional currencies, thus allowing for differentiated monetary policy. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The author explicates the potential benefits and costs to decentralization. The author also highlights characteristics that should be satisfied in order to consider multiple currencies. This paper uses a theoretical and empirical model to test if the USA contains regional optimal currency areas. The author tests five potential divisions of the states into monetary subunions.

One of these divisions is proven to result in higher welfare (a 2 percent increase) than the status quo national monetary union. Thus, the USA is not an optimal currency area, and monetary decentralization could be a feasible and welfare-improving option for future policy.

There have been no previous studies of monetary divisions. Given the importance of fiscal decentralization, it is important to also understand the implications of monetary decentralization.

A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the European Monetary Union crisis. The purpose of this paper is to assess real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states.

In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100 percent) convergence are then computed from the estimations.

Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF-backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence.

As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs.

It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions.

Does a strong commitment to an exchange rate peg reduce the cost of financial capital to less developed countries? We use a sample of twelve Caribbean countries to examine the impact that the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), a currency board/monetary union, has in lowering the cost of borrowing to its members. Results from estimations on individual and pooled annual data from 1976–1999 indicate that membership in the ECCU, in addition to other policy variables, significantly reduces the cost of financial capital.