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The purpose of this paper is to lay a theoretical basis for discussion of the ways by which organized foresight can be employed in the service of pro‐poor objectives. This is in line with the fundamental mandate of the Rockefeller Foundation, dating from its establishment.

The objective was to capture concepts that the author has been developing and teaching under the heading of “Forward engagement”. Forward engagement is a particular approach to anticipatory governance, drawing upon complexity theory for assessment of issues requiring government policy; network theory for proposed reforms to legacy systems of governance to enable them to manage complexity under conditions of accelerating change; and cybernetic theory to propose feedback systems to allow ongoing measurement of the performance of policies against expectations. For more detail, visit www.forwardengagement.org.

The paper sketches out some core elements of a system for anticipatory governance.

In addition to the primary findings of forward engagement (see web site), this paper argues that foresight and anticipatory concepts can play a vital role, not only for governance in the United States, but for governance in developing countries: perhaps even more so, because such countries have narrower margins for response to significant changes of circumstance.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a conceptual model to unpack the relationship between organisational routines and strategic foresight integration.

Three moderating factors, actors mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity, are used in a Routines-Foresight Model to explain how and when organisational routines might influence strategic foresight integration. In addition, the interactions between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines are linked to the concept of routines as generative structures to provide a solid theoretical foundation for the relationship between routines and foresight.

The success (or failure) of foresight integration is partly a result of the nature of interaction between the ostensive and performative aspects of routines within a focal organisation. As a result of the characteristic embeddedness of routines in organisations however, certain factors further act as moderators to contribute to a holistic explanation of how the ostensive and performative interaction influence foresight integration success.

This paper proposes that routines, whether seen from a change or stability-inducing perspective, could lead to success or failure in foresight integration depending on how the moderating factors (actor’s mindfulness, organisational context and organisational ambidexterity) are managed to accommodate feedback from an organisation’s external environment. In this way, the model proposed challenges present perceptions of routines as leading to successful change behaviours if flexibility is allowed or to failure if they are rigid and unchanging.

Cultivating strategic foresight involves the integration of foresight into organisational decisions and requires organisations to pay attention to understanding the organizing logic of its organizing routines and the contextual factors within which these routines are performed.

The paper draws on the organisational routines literature to develop new insights into the cultivation of organisational foresightfulness.

This paper aims to contend that to achieve the resilience needed to thrive long‐term in a dynamic, highly competitive marketplace companies need to commit to continual customer‐focused agility training.

The paper uses “Big Brown Box Inc.”, which is a disguised case about a real company's practices and experiences.

The paper reveals that training for resilience involves mastering three strategic management practices: cultivating foresight, rehearsing non‐routine behaviors and building an experimentation‐oriented community.

The takeaway from the Big Brown Box Inc. example is that all companies need to continually exercise their operational resilience to prepare for setbacks and the maneuvers of rivals.

The paper reveals that the rehearsing and training exercises needed to develop resilience will help an organization learn how to proactively engage in exploration and experimentation.

Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.

This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.

Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.

The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

Scholars and practitioners generally acknowledge the crucial importance of visions in motivating and inspiring organizational change. In this article, we describe a two-part activity based on visionary leadership scholarship and theory designed to teach students to cultivate foresight and consider future possibilities through the organizational vision statement development process.

Using an experiential design, the exercise draws on several empirically validated techniques to encourage foresight and future thinking, to help students place themselves in the shoes of the chief executive officer of a hypothetical organization and use dramaturgical character development strategies to craft the vision statements that they will champion.

The exercise has been used in three different business courses (N = 87) and has been well received.

The content of the exercise is adaptable to a variety of courses in which leadership and vision are focal topics – such as organizational behavior, strategy and leadership – and could also be modified for an online classroom setting.

This paper aims to introduce and test a model of shaping strategic agility based on dynamic capabilities such as information technology (IT) competencies, entrepreneurial alertness and acuity market to improve firms’ competitive activity.

A study based on a quantitative approach has been designed. Data have been collected through closed questionnaires from a sample of firms. The study has been conducted in the electronics industry in Italy based on the dynamism of the setting. Through SPSS-AMOS application, path analysis has been performed to conduct a first assessment of the theoretical model.

The dimensions of strategic agility are relevant capabilities for improving competitive activity. Furthermore, increasing strategic agility in the three dimensions (customer, operational and partnering) depends on the ability to improve other dynamic capabilities of the organization, including IT competency, systematic insight and strategic foresight. Finally, strategic agility results to be the only variable able to leverage the firm’s competitive activity.

The study presents some limitations linked to the response rate and the ability to conduct further analysis. However, it highlights the main dimensions that managers and entrepreneurs should develop to improve the competitive activities of the firm.

The paper addresses practitioners’ need to identify the main variable to leverage in order to increase firms’ competitivity.

The results of the study offer the opportunity for new reflections when designing business executives’ training programs and defining recruitment pathways.

This is the first study that investigates strategic agility building in a turbulent environment in the Italian setting.