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Article
Publication date: 2 November 2020

A dynamic relationship between crude oil price and Indian equity market: an empirical study with special reference to Indian benchmark index Sensex

Nikhil Yadav, Priyanka Tandon, Ravindra Tripathi and Rajesh Kumar Shastri

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.

Findings

The study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.

Research limitations/implications

The study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.

Originality/value

The study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-06-2020-0306
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

  • Association
  • Causality
  • Crude oil prices
  • Sensex
  • Vector autoregression

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Article
Publication date: 3 September 2018

The dynamic information spill-over effect of WTI crude oil prices on China’s traditional energy sectors

Yue-Jun Zhang and Yao-Bin Wu

The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic influence of WTI crude oil returns on the stock returns of China’s traditional energy sectors, including oil and gas exploitation, coal mining and processing, petroleum processing and coking, electricity, heat production and supply and mining services.

Design/methodology/approach

Hong’s information spill-over test and the DP Granger causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two markets. Moreover, a rolling window is introduced into the above two tests to capture time-varying characteristics of the influence of WTI crude oil returns.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that, first, there exists significant bidirectional linear causality between WTI crude oil returns and China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns, but the nonlinear causality appears weaker. Second, the influence of WTI crude oil returns on traditional energy sectoral stock returns has time-varying characteristics and industry heterogeneity both in the linear and nonlinear cases. Finally, the decline of WTI crude oil prices may strengthen its linear influence on the stock returns of traditional energy sectors, while the excessive rise of market values in traditional energy sectors may weaken the linear and nonlinear influence of WTI on them.

Originality/value

The general nexus between international crude oil market and China’s traditional energy stock market is explored both in the linear and nonlinear perspectives. In particular, the dynamic linear and nonlinear influence of WTI crude oil returns on China’s traditional energy sectoral stock returns and its industry heterogeneity are analysed in detail.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-05-2017-0094
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

  • Crude oil
  • DP Granger causality test
  • Hong’s information spill-over test

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Article
Publication date: 4 June 2018

The optimal thermal causal path analysis on the relationship between international crude oil price and stock market

Can Zhong Yao, Peng Cheng Kuang and Ji Nan Lin

The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to reveal the lead–lag structure between international crude oil price and stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The methods used for this study are as follows: empirical mode decomposition; shift-window-based Pearson coefficient and thermal causal path method.

Findings

The fluctuation characteristic of Chinese stock market before 2010 is very similar to international crude oil prices. After 2010, their fluctuation patterns are significantly different from each other. The two stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices, revealing varying lead–lag orders among stock markets. During 2000 and 2004, the stock markets significantly led international crude oil prices but they are less distinct from the lead–lag orders. After 2004, the effects changed so that the leading effect of Shanghai composite index remains no longer significant, and after 2012, S&P index just significantly lagged behind the international crude oil prices.

Originality/value

China and the US stock markets develop different pattens to handle the crude oil prices fluctuation after finance crisis in 1998.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 47 no. 6
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/K-04-2017-0139
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

  • Empirical mode decomposition
  • Stock markets
  • International crude oil price
  • Lead–lag analysis
  • Thermal causal path method

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Article
Publication date: 14 May 2018

Volatility spillover from crude oil and gold to BRICS equity markets

Vikas Pandey and Vipul Vipul

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillover from crude oil and gold to the BRICS stock markets, after removing the effect of co-movement of prices…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillover from crude oil and gold to the BRICS stock markets, after removing the effect of co-movement of prices of crude oil and gold.

Design/methodology/approach

Three multivariate GARCH models (dynamic conditional correlation, constant conditional correlation, and Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner) are used to capture the dynamic relationship between the crude oil and gold returns. The innovations from gold and oil are orthogonalized, and the EGARCH model is employed for the spillover analysis. The influences of oil price shocks and gold price shocks are tested on the returns of each of the BRICS equity markets.

Findings

There is evidence of volatility spillover from both the crude oil and gold to the BRICS stock markets. A sub-sample analysis suggests that the volatility spillover from gold was not significant before the financial crisis of 2008, but became significant post-crisis. The volatility asymmetry, which was not significant before the crisis, also became significant after it.

Originality/value

This study examines the volatility spillover to the BRICS stock markets from crude oil and gold, after accounting for the co-movement in their prices. It can help equity investors to judge whether gold can provide incremental diversification benefit, if used in conjunction with crude oil. The study also provides insights into the changes caused by the 2008 financial crisis on this volatility spillover mechanism.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2017-0025
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

  • EGARCH
  • BRICS stock markets
  • BEKK GARCH
  • Crude oil volatility spillover
  • Gold volatility spillover
  • Volatility asymmetry

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Article
Publication date: 18 April 2017

Volatility spillovers between crude oil price and stock markets: evidence from BRIC countries

Bhaskar Bagchi

The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between crude oil price volatility and stock markets in the emerging economies like BRIC (Brazil, Russia…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between crude oil price volatility and stock markets in the emerging economies like BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries in the context of sharp continuous fall in the crude oil price in recent times.

Design/methodology/approach

The stock price volatility is partly explained by volatility in crude oil price. The author adopt an Asymmetric Power ARCH (APARCH) model which takes into account long memory behavior, speed of market information, asymmetries and leverage effects.

Findings

For Bovespa, MICEX, BSE Sensex and crude oil there is an asymmetric response of volatilities to positive and negative shocks and negative correlation exists between returns and volatility indicating that negative information will create greater volatility. However, for Shanghai Composite positive information has greater effect on stock price volatility in comparison to negative information. The study results also suggest the presence long memory behavior and persistent volatility clustering phenomenon amongst crude oil price and stock markets of the BRIC countries.

Originality/value

The present study makes a number of contributions to the existing literature in the following ways. First, the author have considered crude oil prices up to January 31, 2016, so that the study can reflect the impact of declining trend of crude oil prices on the stock indices which is also regarded as “new oil price shock” to measure the volatility between crude oil price and stock market indices of BRIC countries. Second, the volatility is captured by APARCH model which takes into account long memory behavior, speed of market information, asymmetries and leverage effects.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-04-2015-0077
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

  • BRIC
  • Emerging economies
  • Stock market volatility

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Article
Publication date: 16 August 2013

Correlation transmission between crude oil and Indian markets

Dilip Kumar and S. Maheswaran

In this paper, the authors aim to investigate the return, volatility and correlation spillover effects between the crude oil market and the various Indian industrial…

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Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, the authors aim to investigate the return, volatility and correlation spillover effects between the crude oil market and the various Indian industrial sectors (automobile, financial, service, energy, metal and mining, and commodities sectors) in order to investigate optimal portfolio construction and to estimate risk minimizing hedge ratios.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors compare bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models (diagonal, constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation) with the vector autoregressive model as a conditional mean equation and the vector autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model as a conditional variance equation with the error terms following the Student's t distribution so as to identify the model that would be appropriate for optimal portfolio construction and to estimate risk minimizing hedge ratios.

Findings

The authors’ results indicate that the dynamic conditional correlation bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is better able to capture time‐dynamics in comparison to other models, based on which the authors find evidence of return and volatility spillover effects from the crude oil market to the Indian industrial sectors. In addition, the authors find that the conditional correlations between the crude oil market and the Indian industrial sectors change dynamically over time and that they reach their highest values during the period of the global financial crisis (2008‐2009). The authors also estimate risk minimizing hedge ratios and oil‐stock optimal portfolio holdings.

Originality/value

This paper has empirical originality in investigating the return, volatility and correlation spillover effects from the crude oil market to the various Indian industrial sectors using BVGARCH models with the error terms assumed to follow the Student's t distribution.

Details

South Asian Journal of Global Business Research, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJGBR-08-2012-0104
ISSN: 2045-4457

Keywords

  • Crude oil prices
  • Volatility
  • Indian industrial sectors
  • Hedge ratios
  • Portfolio construction
  • Oils
  • Oil industry
  • India

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Book part
Publication date: 25 March 2010

Improved diversification through a mix of oil and equities

Helen Xu

This study presents evidence of a statistically significant negative correlation between crude oil and equities over the past 20 years. Including proper proportions of…

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Abstract

This study presents evidence of a statistically significant negative correlation between crude oil and equities over the past 20 years. Including proper proportions of negatively correlated assets in a diversified portfolio can improve the ratio of reward relative to risk, and therefore, adding crude oil with equities into a diversified portfolio can provide superior portfolio performance, compared with equities alone. Because crude oil prices held stable for nearly a century before the oil crisis of 1973, and oil derivatives did not begin trading actively on public markets until the 1980s, the diversification value of oil is a relatively new phenomenon. Also contributing to the phenomenon, the majority of oil reserves and the majority of crude oil production capacity worldwide are held by entities that are not traded in public equity markets, and therefore, the diversification benefits of oil cannot be fully realized by holding a portion of the global market portfolio of equities.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/S0196-3821(2010)0000026008
ISBN: 978-1-84950-726-4

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Book part
Publication date: 23 September 2019

Oil Price and Energy Security

Yi-Ming Wei, Qiao-Mei Liang, Gang Wu and Hua Liao

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Abstract

Details

Energy Economics
Type: Book
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83867-293-520191006
ISBN: 978-1-83867-294-2

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Article
Publication date: 23 July 2020

Forecasting extreme risk using regime-switching GARCH models: a case from an energy commodity

Yang Xiao

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regime-switching and single-regime GARCH models for the extreme risk forecast of the developed and the emerging crude oil markets.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regime-switching and single-regime GARCH models for the extreme risk forecast of the developed and the emerging crude oil markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The regime-switching GARCH-type models and their single-regime counterparts are used in risk forecast of crude oil.

Findings

The author finds that the regime-switching GARCH-type models are suitable for the developed and the emerging crude oil markets in that they effectively measure the extreme risk of crude oil in different cases. Meanwhile, the model with switching regimes captures dynamic structures in financial markets, and these models are just only better than the corresponding single-regime in terms of long position risk forecast, instead of short position. That is, it just outperforms the single-regime on the downside risk forecast.

Originality/value

This study comprehensively compares risk forecast of crude oil in different situations through the competitive models. The obtained findings have strong implications to investors and policymakers for selecting a suitable model to forecast extreme risk of crude oil when they are faced with portfolio selection, asset allocation and risk management.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-11-2019-0974
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

  • Crude oil
  • Volatility
  • Regime-switching model
  • Extreme risk forecast

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2004

Oil and currency factors in Middle East equity returns

Kofi A. Amoateng and Javad Kargar

The desire to increase investor interest in emerging markets has motivated many studies of return and risk characteristics of equity prices in these markets. Using data…

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Abstract

The desire to increase investor interest in emerging markets has motivated many studies of return and risk characteristics of equity prices in these markets. Using data from January 1999 to December 2002, we examine the dynamic relationships between oil, currency, and stock prices in the four major markets in the Middle East. Three of the four are highly correlated with the major stock markets. The potential for diversifying in Middle East markets is limited. The Egyptian and Jordanian markets, on one hand, and the Israeli and Saudi markets, on the other, are marginally integrated. While Israeli shekels significantly explain their equity prices, crude oil futures prices fairly explain oil‐rich Saudi and Egyptian equity prices. We conclude that it takes a long time for crude oil futures prices to reach equilibrium with stock prices in Israel when there is a shock to the system. However, it takes relatively a short time for crude spot oil prices and currency price to reach equilibrium with stock prices when there is a shock in the system of Saudi Arabia or Egypt. Our results suggest that, in the short and long term, investor decisions in these markets are influenced by oil and currency prices.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 30 no. 3
Type: Research Article
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/03074350410768930
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

  • Accounting research
  • Share prices
  • Economic fluctuations
  • Egypt
  • Israel
  • Jordan
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Correlation analysis
  • Stock markets

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