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Despite significant progress in Iran's immunization programs, vaccine policymaking in the country still faces various challenges and shortcomings. To address these issues and ensure sustained progress toward achieving comprehensive vaccination policies, it is essential to identify the critical factors influencing vaccine policies in Iran. Our study aims to provide evidence-based insights that can inform the development of effective and equitable vaccine strategies, leading to a more sustainable and efficient approach to vaccination in the country.

This mixed-method study aimed to analyze the factors influencing the future of human vaccine policy using Cross Impact Analysis. Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify the factors affecting the future of human vaccine development. Secondly, a semi-structured interview was conducted with experts in this field to add more factors and confirm the identified factors within the Iranian context. Finally, a Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) approach was applied to comprehend the complex relationships between the identified factors. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative data, and MICMAC analysis was applied to characterize the relationships between the factors.

Seventeen key driving force factors were identified through comprehensive review and interviews. These factors were assigned weighted values ranging from zero to three and subsequently analyzed using MICMAC software. Employing the Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) technique, the study characterized the impact of each factor on vaccine policy and elucidated the intricate interactions between them. The findings underscored that robust leadership and governance, an innovative ecosystem, and well-established immunization information systems emerged as pivotal driving forces shaping vaccine policy in Iran.

While this study contributes valuable insights into the driving factors influencing vaccine policy in Iran, it is important to acknowledge several limitations. The results rely on the subjective perceptions of a diverse group of specialists, and future research could delve into additional factors in other countries to identify common themes and differences.

This study provides evidence to assist policymakers in making informed decisions regarding vaccines in Iran. The findings suggest that enhancing access to vaccines, fostering trust in the healthcare system, and prioritizing equity in distribution can contribute to increased vaccination rates and a reduction in vaccine-preventable diseases.

This study provides a unique contribution to the field of vaccine policy by utilizing the cross-impact analysis to examine the complex interactions among various factors. The results of this analysis demonstrate that these interactions can significantly impact the overall system, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider multiple factors when formulating effective strategies. By revealing the significance of these interactions, this research offers valuable insights into the development of successful policies that can shape a desirable future for vaccine policy in Iran. Future studies could ratify the findings from this research by applying other methodological approaches.

This case recounts how an expert scenario consultant and a team of managers at a government agency used proprietary technology to define a set of alternate futures; it describes how this scenario analysis provided a framework for understanding the existence of interlocking relationships – the logic model – among factors that determine desirable future outcomes.

As a tool for forecasting and strategic planning, Battelle employs a method called interactive future simulations (IFS) that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross‐impact analysis for generating probabilistic alternative futures (scenarios). The tool has been used both for Battelle's own business strategy analysis and for fee‐for‐service projects for some 55 clients in North America, Europe, and Japan.

The logic model showed that, higher achievement depends primarily on only two clusters of descriptors: students receiving high quality instruction aligned with academic content standards and students having the right conditions and motivation for learning.

Having completed the first generation of the logic model through the exercise of cross‐impact analysis, the Ohio Department of Education project team will revisit the scenarios and give them increased attention. A revised logic model will be constructed in 2005.

This article introduces the logic model as a potentially valuable new strategic management tool.

Managers in for‐profit and nonprofit organization can get a rare inside look at the process and potential of scenario analysis and the development of a logic model.

Organisations operate within a three‐tiered environment – internal, micro and macro. The environment is a powerjul force acting upon the effectiveness of strategic decision making. Failure to take cognisance of the influence of the three‐tiered environment can have disastrous consequences. The cross‐impact matrix and the TOWS matrix are two strategic decision‐making aids that improve effective decision making. When used in conjunction with creative problem solving methods they can provide the basis of a powerful management tool.

Megaprojects are large-scale and long-term investments. Three pillars of sustainable construction objectives, namely, social, environmental and economic, should be integrated into megaproject risk management to ensure long-term success. A risk assessment method, Risk Assessment Method for Sustainable Construction Objectives in Megaprojects (RAMSCOM), was developed for this purpose.

RAMSCOM was developed based on the latest concepts and identifying relevant and critical sustainability objectives and risks through an extensive literature review. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) were used to determine and quantify the threats regarding the importance of the sustainability objectives. The applicability of RAMSCOM was demonstrated on a real megaproject.

The findings revealed that sustainability risk assessment requires integration of economic, environmental, social objectives and analysis of cross-impacts of risk factors. Visualization of interrelated threats, vulnerabilities and objectives has a potential to support risk mitigation decisions to achieve sustainability goals.

The method has been developed based on the findings from a detailed literature survey on sustainability objectives and risks. RAMSCOM was tested on a single project with the assistance of three experts' views. Findings from the case project cannot be directly generalised for various megaprojects considering the unique nature of megaprojects.

Decision-makers can use RAMSCOM to assess sustainability risks in megaprojects and develop risk management plans for the most vulnerable and important sustainable objectives in a visual and quantified approach to ensure megaproject's sustainability in the long-term.

The theoretical contribution is a novel risk assessment method that integrates all dimensions of sustainability and quantifies the vulnerability of sustainability objectives considering their priorities, interrelations and risks. Sustainability dimensions, objectives and risks used in RAMSCOM can be useful for other researchers aiming to develop similar methods.

Qualitative information‐gathering techniques are focused on to determine whether they can be adapted or adopted to support strategic goal‐setting. Much of the literature suggests that if planning is based on information gathered and presented in a manner which managers can understand they are more likely to act on it, and, for this reason, qualitative rather than quantitative techniques are stressed here. Factors which are not amenable to numerate analysis but which are useful to the strategic planner, such as experience, judgement and intuition, are also isolated and analysed. An attempt is made to facilitate the use of qualitative data‐gathering methods and suggestions are made as to where particular techniques may prove beneficial, together with their limitations. Research, from a small (n = 20), in‐depth survey of small business owners/ managers in Canada, is included which shows that they do not use quantitative planning processes but that judgemental techniques were most widely used; in general, the less sophisticated the planning process the higher it would be ranked among the survey participants. The research from other surveys also shows that scientific mathematically based models often do not fit with small business organisational reality and that methodologies should be developed that integrate research into the decision‐making process.

The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.

The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.

The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.

Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.

Scenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the positive and negative impacts of tourism on the process of tourism growth at a national scale in Iran, by taking into account the reviews of previous studies, views of experts and structural analysis.

In this investigation, structural analysis technique has been used to identify the correlation between variables by using mix method data analysis. By using cross-impact analysis (N × N integer matrix) in the form of the Micmac method, the economic, sociocultural and environmental factors have been evaluated.

The results of the distribution of factors in the coordinate axes and the graphs between them indicate their features, and for reaching a sustainable system of tourism development, at first, priority should be given to the negative influential factors, especially the environmental fields, and then the focus should be on the decrease of the dual and risk variables as they cannot be anticipated.

For the rapid growth of tourism in many countries, governments ensure that policies have been heeded in designing and preparing general plans of the country to understand how the development trend is moving on. In this respect, arisen impacts of tourism system are one of the important issues during the development path and in the field of tourism future. Because of the complexity and broadness of tourism activities, these impacts have also many interconnected dimensions that should also be considered while studying tourism impacts.

Corporate planning involves setting down overall corporate financial goals and using these as the basis for setting goals in the various functional areas of the business. In the case of marketing, strategies aimed at achieving stated goals and objectives are based on an analysis of marketing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their impact on the organization. Employs cross impact analysis to assess the impact of environmental variables ‐ such as technology, economy, customers and competition ‐ on the strategic business units of an organization. It can be extended to look at the impact on future or potential businesses as well. The technique helps to identify various threats and opportunities which surround the organization. Employs gap analysis to identify the difference between aspirations and likely achievements with the current product‐market portfolio. Aids choice of marketing objectives and strategy by an analysis undertaken to identify strengths and weaknesses of the organization and opportunities and threats which exist in the environment.

States there are there different methodologies for managing alternative futures: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis; and cross‐impact analysis. Goes on to give in‐depth examples and explanations of each one of the alternative futures. Concludes many industry associations and some strategy oriented organizations and institutions, produce generic scenarios, but that managers have to recognize scenario processes.

Weighs up the word scenario and its use in modern business. Emphasizes that scenario methodologies come into three categories, which are: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis; and cross‐impact analysis. States scenarios used in exercise situations depend on the intended use, and budget and that, even so, it is worth persevering to reach best outcomes.