Search results

This study aims to investigate the existence of contagion between liquid and illiquid assets in the credit default swap (CDS) market around the recent financial crisis. The authors perform analyses based on vector autoregression model and the dynamic conditional correlation model. The estimation of vector autoregression models reveals that changes in liquid CDS (LCDS) spreads lead to changes in illiquid CDS spreads at least one week ahead during the financial crisis period, whereas the leading direction is reversed during the post-crisis period. Moreover, the results are robust after controlling for structural variables which are proven as determinants of CDS spreads and are empirically supported. This study interprets that information was incorporated first into the LCDSs because of the flight-to-liquidity during the recent crisis period but there is a default contagion effect by reflecting illiquidity-induced credit risk after the crisis. Finally, the dynamic conditional correlation analysis also confirms the main results.

The authors estimate systemic risk in the Korean economy using the econometric measures of commonality and connectedness applied to stock returns. To assess potential systemic risk concerns arising from the high concentration of the economy in large business groups and a few export-oriented sectors, the authors perform three levels of estimation using individual stocks, business groups, and industry returns. The results show that the measures perform well over the study’s sample period by indicating heightened levels of commonality and interconnectedness during crisis periods. In out-of-sample tests, the measures can predict future losses in the stock market during the crises. The authors also provide the recent readings of their measures at the market, chaebol, and industry levels. Although the measures indicate systemic risk is not a major concern in Korea, as they tend to be at the lowest level since 1998, there is an increasing trend in commonality and connectedness since 2017. Samsung and SK exhibit increasing degrees of commonality and connectedness, perhaps because of their heavy dependence on a few major member firms. Commonality in the finance industry has not subsided since the financial crisis, suggesting that systemic risk is still a concern in the banking sector.

The authors investigate whether the effects of stock buyback announcements on credit default swap (CDS) spread changes for US firms depend on macroeconomic conditions. The authors find that abnormal CDS spreads increase for small-sized firms announced to repurchase a higher share ratio during the normal period. In contrast, abnormal CDS spreads decrease for big-sized firms regardless of the magnitude of the repurchase ratio during the crisis period. The results of this study suggest that the wealth transfer effect dominates the signaling effect for small-sized firms with higher target ratios during the normal period. In contrast, the signaling effect is stronger for bondholders of big-sized firms during the crisis period.

This study investigates the deviation from put-call parity in the KOSPI200 options market. The sample period is from January 2, 2006 to May 31, 2009. Due to the financial crisis in 2008, short sale of stocks had been prohibited from October 1, 2008 to May 31, 2009. The sample is divided into the pre-crisis period and the crisis period. The crisis period is the period during which short sale of stocks are prohibited. The summary statistics shows that the trading volume of KOSPI200 stocks doubled, but the trading volume of call options and that of put options declined to one half and one third from the pre-crisis period to the crisis period, respectively. The equation which relates the deviation of futures price to the deviation of put-call parity is derived and the deviation from put-call parity is analyzed by using two stage least square. This paper looks into not only the prior 60 day return's momentum effect, but also the intraday spot return's momentum effect. Evidence indicates that the intraday momentum does exist in options and stock prices. Empirical results show that the prior 60 day return's momentum effect is statistically insignificant during the pre-crisis period, but statistically significant during the crisis period whereas the intraday return's momentum effect is strongly significant for both of the periods. This result lends support to the argument that the deviation of futures price from its theoretical price is a component of the deviation from put-call parity. The sign and significance of the regression coefficient for momentum effects are consistent with Kim and Park (2011) and Kim (2012) again lending support to the validity of their regression equation. Overall, our results are consistent with the validity of the derived equation, Kim and Park (2011) and Kim (2013)’s rationale.

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty on value of cash before and after the global financial crisis.

We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and value of excess cash based on the valuation model of Fama and French (1998). Baker et al. (2016) news-based index (BBD index) is employed to calculate measures of economic policy uncertainty. Our research sample includes 103,474 observations from 11,000 firms across 19 countries over the period 2004–2016.

We find that economic policy uncertainty is negatively “positively” related to value of cash in the pre-crisis “post-crisis” period. Moreover, we also document that the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty in the post-crisis period is stronger in financially constrained firms.

While prior studies find a relationship between economic policy uncertainty and cash levels or the effect of firm-level uncertainty on value of cash, this paper shows how economic policy uncertainty as an institutional environment factor affects value of cash. Moreover, it documents that economic policy uncertainty has opposite effects on value of cash before and after the global financial crisis.

本研究旨在探討經濟政策不確定性在全球金融危機之前及之後對現金價值的影響。

我們基於法馬及佛倫奇(1998) (Fama and French (1998)) 的估值模型，來探討經濟政策不確定性與過剩現金價值的關係。我們採用了貝克等人(2016) (Baker et al. (2016)) 以新聞訊息為基礎的指數 (BBD指數) 、來計算經濟政策不確定性的程度。我們的研究樣本包括橫跨19個國家、涵蓋期為2004年至2016年、取自11,000間公司之103,474個觀察。

我們發現經濟政策不確定性與現金價值在危機前時期成負相關,在危機後時期則成正相關。而且,我們也記錄了在危機後時期經濟政策不確定性的正面影響於財務受限的公司會較大的情況。

過去的研究發現了經濟政策不確定性與現金水平之間存有關係、及企業層面的不確定性對現金價值的影響。唯本研究顯示了經濟政策不確定性作為一機構環境因素,如何影響現金價值；同時，亦記錄了經濟政策不確定性在全球金融危機之前及之後對現金價值會有相反影響的情況。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of herding phenomenon, spill-over effects related to herding and whether herding is driven by fundamentals or non-fundamentals for various sub-periods and sub-samples.

The cross-sectional absolute deviation model is applied to China’s A- and B-share markets in combination with fundamental information.

Herding is prevalent on both A- and B-share markets. In detail, investors on A-share market herd for small and growth stock portfolios irrespective of market states while they only herd for large or value stocks in down market, therefore leading the whole herding behaviour to be pronounced in down market. Comparatively, on B-share market, herding is robust for various investment styles (small or large, value or growth) or market situations. Additionally, spill-over effects related to herding do not exist no matter from A-shares to B-shares or from B-shares to A-shares. Moreover, investors on B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis.

Investors on A- and B-share markets tend to herd as the response to non-fundamental information more frequently during financial crisis. Analysing the herding behaviours could be helpful in controlling the financial risk.

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). The two selected black swan events are the US Mortgage and credit crisis (Global Financial Crisis of 2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The performance of all the six stock markets are represented by their return and price volatility behavior, which has been measured by applying ARCH/GARCH model. The comparative analysis is done by employing mean difference models. The data is collected from Bloomberg on a daily frequency.

The response of two black swan events on the GCC stock markets has been heterogenous in nature. During the financial crisis, the impact was heavily felt on most of the stock markets in the GCC countries. It is revealed that the financial crisis had a negative significant impact on four of the six countries. Whereas during the COVID-19 crisis, it is revealed that there is no significant impact on four of the six selected stock markets. The positive significant impact is felt on two stock markets, namely, the Abu Dhabi stock market and the Saudi stock market.

The present investigation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on the intended topic because it is evident from the literature on the chosen subject that no study has been undertaken to evaluate and contrast the impact of the GFC crisis and COVID-19 on the GCC stock markets.

Inflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of this policy on economic performance, particularly in periods of economic turmoil remain controversial. Thus, this paper re-examines the treatment effect of inflation targeting on two important macro indicators which are inflation rate and output growth with the focus on emerging market economies. The global financial crisis, which is known as the great recession since the last decade, is investigated as an exogenous shock to test for the effectiveness of this popular regime.

The difference-in-difference approach in the fixed-model is employed for this investigation using a balanced panel data of 54 countries with 15 inflation-targeting countries for the period 2002 to 2010.

The examination finds that there is no significant difference in terms of the inflation rate and gross domestic product growth over the whole research period between the treatment and control groups. However, the outcome suggests that emerging economies can control the increase in inflation rate when the economy has to cope with the exogenous uncertainties.

This finding indicates important policy implications for central banks in many countries.

Inflation targeting can help emerging countries to reduce an increase in inflation rate in the crisis period without many trade-offs in the growth of output.

The unprecedented economic crisis in Greece deeply affected entrepreneurship, which was traditionally characterised by low levels of innovation and competitiveness, the dominant presence of micro-sized enterprises and the weak signs of prosperity in large firms. This paper, in acknowledgement of the necessary transformations that production incurred due to the crisis, attempts to detect the characteristics of large manufacturing firms that contributed to their greater resilience during the unstable period of 2011–2016 by analysing the determinants of the higher profitability of firms. The analysis shows that firms that improved their productivity and sales levels and in parallel are flexible, in the sense that they have limited amounts of both assets and liabilities and thus a small risk, are those that presented higher profits during the period under study. Initial conditions, sectoral characteristics and the broader national environment do not seem to have a strong contributive role in firms' profitability.

The analysis follows a dynamic system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation based on a panel data set of 125 Greek large firms over the time span 2011–2016.

The analysis shows that firms that improve their productivity and sales levels and in parallel are flexible, in the sense that they have a limited amount of both assets and liabilities and thus a small risk, are those that present higher profits during the period under study. Initial conditions, sectoral characteristics and the broader national environment do not seem to have a strong contributive role in firms' profitability.

The present paper attempts to explain the performance of the most dynamic large manufacturing firms in Greece by investigating the role of some of the most important determinants of firm profitability (according to data availability), acknowledging, however, some analysis' limitations as the absence of some other parameters like the export activity or the incorporation of any innovative features in the firms

The novelty of this paper lies in two points. First, the subject of the analysis is the large firms in Greece, which have not received much attention as Greek entrepreneurship was traditionally based on the light, labour- or resource-intensive production and the main bulk of the literature was not on that topic. Second, during the deep and protracted crisis that Greece has experienced, several production transformations have taken place that remain partly undiscovered. The present paper attempts to analyse the characteristics of large firms that drove their profitability and improved their resilience during the crucial time period 2011–16.

在希臘出現的史無前例的經濟危機深深地影響了該國的創業能力，而希臘的創業能力有其傳統特徵：低水平的創新與競爭力、微型企業佔主導地位和大企業呈現微弱的繁榮跡象。本文在承認這經濟危機導致生產必須轉型的前提下，研究那些於2011年至2016年這不穩定期間營運的大型製造公司，透過分析它們能取得更高利潤的決定因素，以探求是哪些公司特徵使其有更強的抵禦和復原能力。分析顯示，那些改善了生產率和銷售水平的公司，亦同時是靈活變通的公司 （所謂靈活變通，是指公司無論在資產抑或負債方面的數量上都是有限的，因此，它們只需冒小風險），就是那些在本研究涵蓋期間展示獲取更高利潤的公司。初始條件、行業的特徵和更廣泛的國家環境，就公司的盈利能力而言，似乎沒有扮演重要的促進角色。

分析用了廣義動差估計(GMM)這動態系統，基於涵蓋125間希臘大公司、橫跨2011年至2016年期間的面板數據。

分析顯示，那些改善生產率和銷售水平的公司，亦同時是靈活變通的公司 （所謂靈活變通，是指公司無論在資產抑或負債方面的數量上都是有限的，因此，它們只需冒小風險），就是那些在本研究涵蓋期間展示獲取更高利潤的公司。初始條件、行業的特徵和更廣泛的國家環境，就公司的盈利能力而言，似乎沒有扮演重要的促進角色。

本文擬透過探討一些決定公司盈利能力最重要的因素 （根據數據的可獲性），來闡釋在希臘那些最有動力的大型製造公司的績效，但亦同時承認分析有局限之處，那就是，分析沒有涵蓋一些其它決定因素：出口活動和那些公司有否納入任何創新功能。

本文有兩個創新之處：首先，本研究分析的對象是在希臘的大企業，而這個研究對象和課題未曾得到頗多的關注，這是因為希臘的創業能力一向基於勞動密集型或資源密集型的輕工業生產，而過去大部分文獻都不涉及這個課題。另外，當希臘經歷這個巨大且持久的危機時，國內有些仍未普遍察覺的生產轉型出現了。本文擬分析推動大企業於2011年至2016年間這關鍵時刻取得利潤，及改善其抵禦和復原能力的公司特徵。

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the association between drug consumption and unemployment. This paper also studies the differential association between these variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. The results are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is more vulnerable in terms of how likely they are to get and hold down a job in the labour market.

Matching methods and microdata from the Survey on Alcohol and Drugs in Spain, EDADES are used. The use of these methods on the estimates carried out prove to be particularly effective in reducing treatment-selection bias. The authors’ interest is also to analyse the differential association between the interest variables in both the pre- and current-crisis periods. For this purpose, the authors also use the differences-in-differences (DID) estimation method between the two periods to check if the impact of drug use on unemployment depends on the economic context. The estimations are compared in an attempt to verify that the population of users is less likely to attain and hold down a job in the labour market than non-drug users.

The results obtained in the current study are consistent with the hypothesis that drug use decreases an individual’s capacity and availability when he or she is trying to enter the labour market. In both 2007 and 2013, drug users were more likely to be unemployed, regardless of the type of drug. Differences in the probability of being unemployed intensify during an economic crisis. In light of these results, it is possible to conclude that the negative effect of drug consumption on an individual’s employability is increased during periods of economic recession.

The study presented here has some limitations. Firstly, cross-sectional data were used to examine the causal relationship between consumption and employment. In this sense, the results are susceptible to bias. The unavailability of longitudinal data on the same individual made it impossible for the researchers to consider periods of abstinence, the duration of periods of consumption and how this consumption affected an individual’s productivity and his or her working situation. Another limitation is that certain relevant unemployment variables may have been omitted. Among the variables that affect an individual’s labour participation is the existence of sources of income as an alternative to market salaries. With state subsidies, income from illegal activities and money sent by family or friends, an individual may decide not to work. This problem could be mitigated if omitted variables operate in a similar way throughout both of the periods examined.

Given the results obtained in this paper, the authors believe that public policy conclusions should be mainly concerned with the importance of implementing proactive employment policies, along with family support programmes and a greater role for primary care among the people with the highest risks of exclusion. Health treatment should go jointly with measures that make it easier for individuals to enter the workforce. These steps would only be possible with an improved level of education and more complete professional profiles, to increase motivation when individuals seek employment.

This study could make various contributions to the existing body of evidence. In the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to document the effect of the economic crisis on the employability of the drug-using population in contrast with the general population. Moreover, a methodology is presented that provides an alternative to those used in earlier studies, in terms of reducing treatment-selection bias. At the same time, the use of a DID estimation method between pre- and current-crisis periods allow us to check if the impact of drugs consumption on unemployment depends on the economic context.