Search results

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method that can better evaluate the credit risk (CR) under PPP project finance.

The principle to evaluate the CR of PPP projects is to calculate three critical indicators: the default probability (DP), the recovery rate (RR) and the exposure at default (EAD). The RR is determined by qualitative analysis according to Standard & Poor’s Recovery Scale, and the EAD is estimated by NPV analysis. The estimation of the DP is the focus of CR assessment because the future cash flow is not certain, and there are no trading records and market data that can be used to evaluate the credit condition of PPP projects before financial close. The modified CreditMetrics model and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to evaluate the DP, and the application is illustrated by a PPP project finance case.

First, the proposed method can evaluate the influence of the project’s cash flow uncertainty on the potential loss of the bank. Second, instead of outputting a certain default loss value, the method can derive an interval of the potential loss for the bank. Third, the method can effectively analyze how different repayment schedules and risk preference of banks influence the evaluating result.

The proposed method offers an approach for the bank to value the CR under PPP project finance. The method took into consideration of the uncertainty and other characteristics of PPP project finance, adopted and improved the CreditMetrics model, and provided a possible loss range under different project cash flow volatilities through interval estimation under certain confident level. In addition, the bank’s risk preference is considered in the CR evaluating method proposed in this study where the bank’s risk preference is first investigated in the CR evaluating process of PPP project finance.

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether a long-run stable money multiplier exists in Kazakhstan. It also investigates whether different episodes of currency shocks, including the financial crisis and recession of 2008–2010, have affected the working of the money multiplier in Kazakhstan.

The long-run multiplier is tested employing three cointegration tests: Engle–Granger (1987), Phillips–Ouliaris (1990) and Johansen and Juselius (1990).

The results of cointegration and coefficient restrictions tests are consistent with the money multiplier when broad money (M2 and M3) is used rather than when narrow money (M1) is used. The relationship between broad money and monetary base is structurally stable when examined on the basis of a dynamic (an error-correction) model. However, the M2 multiplier performs better than the M3 multiplier.

This paper is restricted to testing a mechanistic version of the money multiplier and its stability using both narrow (M1) and broad money (M2 and M3) supplies. Thus, the paper focusses on the money view of the multiplier rather than the credit view of the multiplier.

One implication that emerges from the findings of this paper is that the National Bank of Kazakhstan can control M2 by controlling the monetary base, and hence the latter can serve as an indicator for monetary policy.

The validity of the money multiplier implies that monetary policy can be conducted to control the money supply and the provision of bank credit to private sector to stabilize economic activity, thereby leading towards social stability in the economy as well.

In addition to offering a coherent survey of the literature on the standard money multiplier, this paper is a first attempt to find a stable money multiplier for Kazakhstan.

This paper attempts to analysis the credit risk at the angle of industrial and macroeconomic factor using grey incidence analysis method.

Credit asset quality problem is one of the obstacles limiting the further development of commercial banks; the research on credit risk becomes an important part of the implementation of a commercial bank's risk management. Different industries may have different effects on the credit risk of commercial bank. This paper proposes finding out the different incidences between industries and credit risk, as well as macroeconomics. Incidence identification method is established to investigate whether the industry and macroeconomic factor could affect an impaired loan ratio of a bank using the grey incidence analysis method.

The results indicate that the impaired loan ratio differs with diverse industry's influence and the macroeconomics also affect it. From the angle of the industry, the result can also determine the risk deviation scope in the grey risk control process which offers new content and ideas within the grey risk control.

Under the guidance of the principle of “differential treatment, differential control”, this research will help to strengthen the implementation of differentiated credit policy, focus on guiding and promoting the optimization of credit structure, so as to maintain a reasonable size of credit facilities and build a steady currency credit system.

The paper succeeds in finding the top five influent industries compared with others by using one of the newest developed theories: grey systems theory.

The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual realities and the future, potential, best possible conditions of general stable equilibrium which both pure and practical reason, exhaustive in the Kantian sense, show as being within the realm of potential realities beyond any doubt. The first classical revolution in economic thinking, included in factor “P” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of a model of ideal conditions of stable equilibrium but neglected the full consideration of the existing, actual conditions. That is the main reason why, in the end, it failed. The second modern revolution, included in factor “A” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of the existing, actual conditions, usually in disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium (in case of stagnation) and neglected the sense of right direction expressed in factor “P” or the realization of general, stable equilibrium. That is the main reason why the modern revolution failed in the past and is failing in front of our eyes in the present. The equation of unified knowledge, perceived as a sui generis synthesis between classical and modern thinking has been applied rigorously and systematically in writing the enclosed American‐British economic, monetary, financial and social stabilization plans. In the final analysis, a new economic philosophy, based on a synthesis between classical and modern thinking, called here the new economics of unified knowledge, is applied to solve the malaise of the twentieth century which resulted from a confusion between thinking in terms of stable equilibrium on the one hand and disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium on the other.

After the effective date of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 15, the accounting treatment of credit card rewards programmes (CCRPs) is no longer explicitly prescribed. Uncertainty regarding what constitutes faithful representation, and the inconsistent accounting practices observed, has created a need for guidance on the appropriate accounting treatment of CCRP transactions. Accounting theory has the potential to provide the foundation for this guidance. As a result, the objective of this study was to develop a theoretical model for the accounting treatment of CCRP transactions using accounting theory.

This non-empirical qualitative conceptual study utilised document analysis, focussing specifically on accounting theory, to construct an accounting treatment model.

Applying the relevant accounting theory (International Accounting Standards Board's (IASB's) Conceptual Framework), a theoretical model for the accounting treatment of CCRP transactions was developed, which emphasises the importance of understanding the economic phenomenon (the CCRP transaction) and determining how management views the transaction (in isolation as marketing or as an integral part of the credit card transaction).

Addressing the problem of accounting for CCRP transactions with reference to accounting theory (which is the main element of scholarly activity in accounting) distinguishes this study from previous research on the topic. The CCRP accounting treatment theoretical model could assist CCRP management in faithfully accounting for a CCRP transaction and reduce uncertainty and inconsistency in practice. Moreover, this study identified the procedures to be employed when using accounting theory to determine the appropriate accounting treatment of business transactions. These procedures could be employed by accountants when faced with other transactions not covered by specific accounting standards.

Smart card-based E-payment systems are receiving increasing attention as the number of implementations is witnessed on the rise globally. Understanding of user adoption behavior of E-payment systems that employ smart card technology becomes a research area that is of particular value and interest to both IS researchers and professionals. However, research interest focuses mostly on why a smart card-based E-payment system results in a failure or how the system could have grown into a success. This signals the fact that researchers have not had much opportunity to critically review a smart card-based E-payment system that has gained wide support and overcome the hurdle of critical mass adoption. The Octopus in Hong Kong has provided a rare opportunity for investigating smart card-based E-payment system because of its unprecedented success. This research seeks to thoroughly analyze the Octopus from technology adoption behavior perspectives.

Cultural impacts on adoption behavior are one of the key areas that this research posits to investigate. Since the present research is conducted in Hong Kong where a majority of population is Chinese ethnicity and yet is westernized in a number of aspects, assuming that users in Hong Kong are characterized by eastern or western culture is less useful. Explicit cultural characteristics at individual level are tapped into here instead of applying generalization of cultural beliefs to users to more accurately reflect cultural bias. In this vein, the technology acceptance model (TAM) is adapted, extended, and tested for its applicability cross-culturally in Hong Kong on the Octopus. Four cultural dimensions developed by Hofstede are included in this study, namely uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, individualism, and Confucian Dynamism (long-term orientation), to explore their influence on usage behavior through the mediation of perceived usefulness.

TAM is also integrated with the innovation diffusion theory (IDT) to borrow two constructs in relation to innovative characteristics, namely relative advantage and compatibility, in order to enhance the explanatory power of the proposed research model. Besides, the normative accountability of the research model is strengthened by embracing two social influences, namely subjective norm and image. As the last antecedent to perceived usefulness, prior experience serves to bring in the time variation factor to allow level of prior experience to exert both direct and moderating effects on perceived usefulness.

The resulting research model is analyzed by partial least squares (PLS)-based Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach. The research findings reveal that all cultural dimensions demonstrate direct effect on perceived usefulness though the influence of uncertainty avoidance is found marginally significant. Other constructs on innovative characteristics and social influences are validated to be significant as hypothesized. Prior experience does indeed significantly moderate the two influences that perceived usefulness receives from relative advantage and compatibility, respectively. The research model has demonstrated convincing explanatory power and so may be employed for further studies in other contexts. In particular, cultural effects play a key role in contributing to the uniqueness of the model, enabling it to be an effective tool to help critically understand increasingly internationalized IS system development and implementation efforts. This research also suggests several practical implications in view of the findings that could better inform managerial decisions for designing, implementing, or promoting smart card-based E-payment system.

In fraudulent conveyance cases, plaintiffs allege that by entering into a complex leverage transaction, such as an LBO, a firm’s former owners ensured its subsequent collapse. Proving that the transaction rendered the firm insolvent may allow debtors (or their proxies) to claw back transfers made to former shareholders and others as part of the transaction.

Courts have recently questioned the robustness of the solvency evidence traditionally provided in such cases, claiming that traditional expert analyses (e.g., a discounted flow analysis) may suffer from hindsight (and other forms of) bias, and thus not reflect an accurate view of the firm’s insolvency prospects at the time of the challenged transfers. To address the issue, courts have recently suggested that experts should consider market evidence, such as the firm’s stock, bond, or credit default swap prices at the time of the challenged transaction. We review market-evidence-based approaches for determination of solvency in fraudulent conveyance cases.

We compare different methods of solvency determination that rely on market data. We discuss the pros and cons of these methods and illustrate the use of credit default swap spreads with a numerical example. Finally, we highlight the limitations of these methods.

If securities trade in efficient markets in which security prices quickly impound all available information, then such security prices provide an objective assessment of investors’ views of the firm’s future insolvency prospects at the time of challenged transfer, given contemporaneously available information. As we explain, using market data to analyze fraudulent conveyance claims or assess a firm’s solvency prospects is not as straightforward as some courts argue. To do so, an expert must first pick a particular credit risk model from a host of choices which links the market evidence (or security price) to the likelihood of future default. Then, to implement his chosen model, the expert must estimate various parameter input values at the time of the alleged fraudulent transfer. In this connection, it is important to note that each credit risk model rests on particular assumptions, and there are typically several ways in which a model’s key parameters may be empirically estimated. Such choices critically affect any conclusion about a firm’s future default prospects as of the date of an alleged fraudulent conveyance.

Simply using market evidence does not necessarily eliminate the question of bias in any analysis. The reliability of a plaintiff’s claims regarding fraudulent conveyance will depend on the reasonableness of the analysis used to tie the observed market evidence at the time of the alleged fraudulent transfer to default prospects of the firm.

There is a large body of literature in financial economics that examines the relationship between market data and the prospects of a firm’s future default. However, there is surprisingly little research tying that literature to the analysis of fraudulent conveyance claims. Our paper, in part, attempts to do so. We show that while market-based methods use the information contained in market prices, this information must be supplemented with assumptions and the conclusions of these methods critically depend on the assumption made.

The rich financial knowledge of small and micro business owners helps to enhance the formal credit demand of small and micro enterprises and change the credit channel preference of small and micro enterprises. The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between financial knowledge and the credit practices of 290 small and micro enterprises in China’s Jiangsu and Shandong provinces based on their formal credit needs and preferred channels of credit.

To measure the degree of the credit constraints of small and micro enterprises, this study applied questionnaire surveys to obtain information on the credit demand and supply of 363 small and micro enterprises in the Jiangsu and Shandong provinces. Firstly, a probit model is used to study the influence of financial knowledge on the formal credit demand and credit acquisition possibility of small and micro enterprises, and tool variables and a biprobit model are used to deal with the possible errors of endogenesis and sample selection. Secondly, a tobit model is used to study the influence of financial knowledge on the credit access of small and micro enterprises in different channels, and tool variables and a Heckman two-stage model are used to deal with endogenesis and possible errors in sample selection. Finally, this study carried out a series of robustness tests to make the conclusions more reliable.

This study is based on the perspective of the knowledge-based view to explore the impact of financial knowledge on the credit behaviour of small and micro enterprises. This study found that financial knowledge can increase a small and micro enterprise’s formal credit needs and drive the small and micro enterprise to actively apply for loans. Furthermore, financial knowledge has a significant and positive influence on the acquisition of formal credit and approved lines of formal credit and a significant and negative influence on the acquisition of informal credit and approved lines of informal credit.

The results indicated that increased financial knowledge can increase the likelihood of a small and micro enterprise to prefer formal credit and reduce the likelihood of it to prefer informal credit channels.

Financial knowledge is the ability to master basic economic knowledge and financial concepts as well as the ability to use knowledge to manage and allocate financial resources. The rich financial knowledge of small and micro business owners helps to enhance the formal credit demand of small and micro enterprises and change their credit channel preference. This paper offers a new perspective on the problems of credit constraint, low participation in formal credit markets and high participation in private credit markets among China’s small and micro enterprises and valuably supplements the research literature.

Achieving equal treatment of credit applicants has been a legitimate concern of legislators and the credit industry. However, measures taken to date in attempting to comply with anti‐discrimination laws arguably do not allow for the most effective use of credit scoring models, and could run counter‐intuitive to the intention of legislation through indirect discrimination. The purpose of this paper is to offer an alternative interpretation that preserves the intention of legislation and also retains the integrity and effectiveness of credit scoring models.

The paper makes a legal analysis of anti‐discrimination laws in the UK, with US law as a comparison, aiming to demonstrate that concerns in using information protected under anti‐discrimination laws as variables may be misplaced, because nothing in these laws precludes the inclusion of all relevant variables in modelling.

The inclusion of variables representing protected characteristics in credit scoring models may not contradict current anti‐discrimination laws.

Limitations exist from the perspectives of customer relationship and the need for further checks and balances. Conclusive validation of the findings will need to come from the courts. The paper provides a springboard for empirical research on whether the inclusion of variables representing protected characteristics in credit scorecards continues to produce better decision‐making models.

The findings benefit credit risk modelling as a whole in facilitating the development of credit scorecards that are in compliance with anti‐discrimination laws, without sacrificing their effectiveness.

The paper presents a fresh perspective and alternative solution to legal concerns regarding the use of protected characteristics in credit scoring, which will be useful to the credit industry.