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Article
Publication date: 9 April 2024

Lu Wang, Jiahao Zheng, Jianrong Yao and Yuangao Chen

With the rapid growth of the domestic lending industry, assessing whether the borrower of each loan is at risk of default is a pressing issue for financial institutions. Although…

Abstract

Purpose

With the rapid growth of the domestic lending industry, assessing whether the borrower of each loan is at risk of default is a pressing issue for financial institutions. Although there are some models that can handle such problems well, there are still some shortcomings in some aspects. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of credit assessment models.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, three different stages are used to improve the classification performance of LSTM, so that financial institutions can more accurately identify borrowers at risk of default. The first approach is to use the K-Means-SMOTE algorithm to eliminate the imbalance within the class. In the second step, ResNet is used for feature extraction, and then two-layer LSTM is used for learning to strengthen the ability of neural networks to mine and utilize deep information. Finally, the model performance is improved by using the IDWPSO algorithm for optimization when debugging the neural network.

Findings

On two unbalanced datasets (category ratios of 700:1 and 3:1 respectively), the multi-stage improved model was compared with ten other models using accuracy, precision, specificity, recall, G-measure, F-measure and the nonparametric Wilcoxon test. It was demonstrated that the multi-stage improved model showed a more significant advantage in evaluating the imbalanced credit dataset.

Originality/value

In this paper, the parameters of the ResNet-LSTM hybrid neural network, which can fully mine and utilize the deep information, are tuned by an innovative intelligent optimization algorithm to strengthen the classification performance of the model.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 October 2023

Jie Lu, Desheng Wu, Junran Dong and Alexandre Dolgui

Credit risk evaluation is a crucial task for banks and non-bank financial institutions to support decision-making on granting loans. Most of the current credit risk methods rely…

Abstract

Purpose

Credit risk evaluation is a crucial task for banks and non-bank financial institutions to support decision-making on granting loans. Most of the current credit risk methods rely solely on expert knowledge or large amounts of data, which causes some problems like variable interactions hard to be identified, models lack interpretability, etc. To address these issues, the authors propose a new approach.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors improve interpretive structural model (ISM) to better capture and utilize expert knowledge, then combine expert knowledge with big data and the proposed fuzzy interpretive structural model (FISM) and K2 are used for expert knowledge acquisition and big data learning, respectively. The Bayesian network (BN) obtained is used for forward inference and backward inference. Data from Lending Club demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Findings

Compared with the mainstream risk evaluation methods, the authors’ approach not only has higher accuracy and better presents the interaction between risk variables but also provide decision-makers with the best possible interventions in advance to avoid defaults in the financial field. The credit risk assessment framework based on the proposed method can serve as an effective tool for relevant policymakers.

Originality/value

The authors propose a novel credit risk evaluation approach, namely FISM-K2. It is a decision support method that can improve the ability of decision makers to predict risks and intervene in advance. As an attempt to combine expert knowledge and big data, the authors’ work enriches the research on financial risk.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 123 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 June 2022

Gang Yao, Xiaojian Hu, Liangcheng Xu and Zhening Wu

Social media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction…

Abstract

Purpose

Social media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction performance. This paper proposes a credit risk prediction framework that integrates social media information to improve listed enterprise credit risk prediction in the supply chain.

Design/methodology/approach

The prediction framework includes four stages. First, social media information is obtained through web crawler technology. Second, text sentiment in social media information is mined through natural language processing. Third, text sentiment features are constructed. Finally, the new features are integrated with traditional features as input for models for credit risk prediction. This paper takes Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises as an example to test the prediction framework and obtain relevant management enlightenment.

Findings

The prediction framework can improve enterprise credit risk prediction performance. The prediction performance of text sentiment features in social media data is better than that of most traditional features. The time-weighted text sentiment feature has the best prediction performance in mining social media information.

Practical implications

The prediction framework is helpful for the credit decision-making of credit departments and the policy regulation of regulatory departments and is conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises.

Originality/value

The prediction framework can effectively mine social media information and obtain an excellent prediction effect of listed enterprise credit risk in the supply chain.

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2024

Yi-Hsin Lin, Ruixue Zheng, Fan Wu, Ningshuang Zeng, Jiajia Li and Xingyu Tao

This study aimed to improve the financing credit evaluation for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises (SMREEs). A financing credit evaluation model was proposed, and a…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to improve the financing credit evaluation for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises (SMREEs). A financing credit evaluation model was proposed, and a blockchain-driven financing credit evaluation framework was designed to improve the transparency, credibility and applicability of the financing credit evaluation process.

Design/methodology/approach

The design science research methodology was adopted to identify the main steps in constructing the financing credit model and blockchain-driven framework. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP)–entropy weighting method (EWM)–set pair analysis (SPA) method was used to design a financing credit evaluation model. Moreover, the proposed framework was validated using data acquired from actual cases.

Findings

The results indicate that: (1) the proposed blockchain-driven financing credit evaluation framework can effectively realize a transparent evaluation process compared to the traditional financing credit evaluation system. (2) The proposed model has high effectiveness and can achieve efficient credit ranking, reflect SMREEs' credit status and help improve credit rating.

Originality/value

This study proposes a financing credit evaluation model of SMREEs based on the FAHP–EWM–SPA method. All credit rating data and evaluation process data are immediately stored in the proposed blockchain framework, and the immutable and traceable nature of blockchain enhances trust between nodes, improving the reliability of the financing credit evaluation process and results. In addition, this study partially fulfills the lack of investigations on blockchain adoption for SMREEs' financing credit.

Case study
Publication date: 27 February 2024

Wen Yu

With the development of inclusive financial business in China in recent years, this case describes the credit risk control of “mobile credit”, a smart online credit platform…

Abstract

With the development of inclusive financial business in China in recent years, this case describes the credit risk control of “mobile credit”, a smart online credit platform launched by Shanghai Mobanker Co. Ltd. (referred to as “Mobanker”, previously named as “Shanghai Mobanker Financial Information Service Co., Ltd.”) which provides technical services for inclusive finance industry.

Details

FUDAN, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2632-7635

Article
Publication date: 5 May 2023

Dalano DaSouza, Kareem Martin, Peter Abraham Jr and Godson Davis

This paper aims to simulate the potential impact of increasing non-performing loans (NPLs) on capital adequacy, interest income and firm value of banks and credit unions in the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to simulate the potential impact of increasing non-performing loans (NPLs) on capital adequacy, interest income and firm value of banks and credit unions in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using stress tests.

Design/methodology/approach

A financial stress testing model was deployed at the levels of individual financial intermediary (FI), sectoral loan portfolio composition, individual member country, and the ECCU collectively, to investigate the impact of NPL shocks on FI stability.

Findings

The authors find that shocks impact the capital adequacy of banks less than that of credit unions, but that firm value of banks is more susceptible to increases in NPLs. Interest income responses to NPL shocks were linked to credit exposure from the tourism sector, which also reduced capital adequacy more than other economic sectors. Findings show that while the COVID-19 pandemic occasioned some increase in NPLs, the magnitude of impact was significantly mitigated by pro-stability policies including loan repayment moratoria and restructuring, guidance on the distribution of profits and deleveraging by financial institutions leading up to 2020.

Originality/value

The paper is among the first to use stress testing on the Caribbean in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Past studies which have used stress test models in the region have not explicitly investigated the impact of credit shocks on risk-weighted assets or interest income as done herein, nor do they include credit unions in the modeling. The results offer novel evaluations as well as implications for FIs in other developing economies, especially those that share a comparable financial and economic architecture.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 31 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 March 2024

Isaac S. Awuye and Daniel Taylor

In 2018, the International Financial Reporting Standard 9-Financial Instruments became mandatory, effectively changing the underlying accounting principles of financial…

Abstract

Purpose

In 2018, the International Financial Reporting Standard 9-Financial Instruments became mandatory, effectively changing the underlying accounting principles of financial instruments. This paper systematically reviews the academic literature on the implementation effects of IFRS 9, providing a coherent picture of the state of the empirical literature on IFRS 9.

Design/methodology/approach

The study thrives on a systematic review approach by analyzing existing academic studies along the following three broad categories: adoption and implementation, impact on financial reporting, and risk management and provisioning. The study concludes by providing research prospects to fill the identified gaps.

Findings

We document data-related issues, forecasting uncertainties and the interaction of IFRS 9 with other regulatory standards as implementation challenges encountered. Also, we observe cross-country heterogeneity in reporting quality. Furthermore, contrary to pre-implementation expectations, we find improvement in risk management. This suggests that despite the complexities of the new regulatory standard on financial instruments, it appears to be more successful in achieving the intended objective of enhancing better market discipline and transparency rather than being a regulatory overreach.

Originality/value

As the literature on IFRS 9 is burgeoning, we provide state-of-the-art guidance and direction for researchers with a keen interest in the economic significance and implications of IFRS 9 adoption. The study identifies gaps in the literature that require further research, specifically, IFRS 9 adoption and firm’s hedging activities, IFRS 9 implications on non-financial firms. Lastly, existing studies are mostly focused on Europe and underscore the need for more research in under-researched jurisdictions, particularly in Asia and Africa. Also, to standard setters, policymakers and practitioners, we provide some insight to aid the formulation and application of standards.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Cheng Liu, Yi Shi, Wenjing Xie and Xinzhong Bao

This paper aims to provide a complete analysis framework and prediction method for the construction of the patent securitization (PS) basic asset pool.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a complete analysis framework and prediction method for the construction of the patent securitization (PS) basic asset pool.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes an integrated classification method based on genetic algorithm and random forest algorithm. First, comprehensively consider the patent value evaluation model and SME credit evaluation model, determine 17 indicators to measure the patent value and SME credit; Secondly, establish the classification label of high-quality basic assets; Then, genetic algorithm and random forest model are used to predict and screen high-quality basic assets; Finally, the performance of the model is evaluated.

Findings

The machine learning model proposed in this study is mainly used to solve the screening problem of high-quality patents that constitute the underlying asset pool of PS. The empirical research shows that the integrated classification method based on genetic algorithm and random forest has good performance and prediction accuracy, and is superior to the single method that constitutes it.

Originality/value

The main contributions of the article are twofold: firstly, the machine learning model proposed in this article determines the standards for high-quality basic assets; Secondly, this article addresses the screening issue of basic assets in PS.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2023

Jamil Jaber, Rami S. Alkhawaldeh and Ibrahim N. Khatatbeh

This study aims to develop a novel approach for predicting default risk in bancassurance, which plays a crucial role in the relationship between interest rates in banks and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a novel approach for predicting default risk in bancassurance, which plays a crucial role in the relationship between interest rates in banks and premium rates in insurance companies. The proposed method aims to improve default risk predictions and assist with client segmentation in the banking system.

Design/methodology/approach

This research introduces the group method of data handling (GMDH) technique and a diversified classifier ensemble based on GMDH (dce-GMDH) for predicting default risk. The data set comprises information from 30,000 credit card clients of a large bank in Taiwan, with the output variable being a dummy variable distinguishing between default risk (0) and non-default risk (1), whereas the input variables comprise 23 distinct features characterizing each customer.

Findings

The results of this study show promising outcomes, highlighting the usefulness of the proposed technique for bancassurance and client segmentation. Remarkably, the dce-GMDH model consistently outperforms the conventional GMDH model, demonstrating its superiority in predicting default risk based on various error criteria.

Originality/value

This study presents a unique approach to predicting default risk in bancassurance by using the GMDH and dce-GMDH neural network models. The proposed method offers a valuable contribution to the field by showcasing improved accuracy and enhanced applicability within the banking sector, offering valuable insights and potential avenues for further exploration.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Zhuo Dai and Yiju Wang

The purpose of this paper is to maximize the average profit of the supply chain by calculating the order quantity, the number of shipments during the production time of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to maximize the average profit of the supply chain by calculating the order quantity, the number of shipments during the production time of the vendor, the number of shipments during the supply cycle of the vendor and the time when the retailer’s inventory level reaches to zero.

Design/methodology/approach

A production and inventory model for degrading commodities with stochastic demand and two-level partial trade credit in a supply chain is presented. The model’s applicability and the processes' feasibility for solving are verified by GAMS software with BARON.

Findings

The impact of the model’s parameters on the vendor and retailer’s average profit was found through sensitivity analysis. The effect of the model’s parameters on the supply chain’s average profit was also found. Moreover, the reasons for this effect were given.

Practical implications

First, decision-makers may use this model to increase the supply chain's average profit. Second, the proposed model takes a general form. Third, the policymakers can also adjust the model’s parameters according to their preferences to get the desired results.

Originality/value

First, this paper develops an inventory and production model for perishable goods. Second, it is believed that the demand is random because the demand is affected by many factors, which make the study more realistic. Third, this paper studies production and inventory problems from the supply chain perspective. Finally, the interest for partial trade credit is calculated. The interest caused by stochastic shortages is also considered and calculated.

1 – 10 of over 3000