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This study examines the importance of income income-shifting arrangements of US multinational corporations (MNCs) on future stock price crash risk.

This study employs a sample of 7,641 corporation-year observations over the 2005–2017 period and uses ordinary least squares regression analysis.

The authors find that the income-shifting arrangements of MNCs are positively and significantly associated with stock price crash risk after controlling for corporate tax avoidance and other known determinants of stock price crash risk in the regression model. This result is robust to alternative measures of stock price crash risk and income-shifting, and several endogeneity tests. The authors also observe that income-shifting arrangements increase stock price crash risk both directly and indirectly through the information opacity channel. Finally, in cross-sectional analyses, the authors find that the positive association between income-shifting and stock price crash risk is more pronounced for MNCs that use tax haven subsidiaries and have weak corporate governance mechanisms.

The authors provide new empirical evidence that MNCs will likely face significant capital market consequences regarding their income-shifting arrangements.

This study examines the influence of stock liquidity on stock price crash risk and the moderating role of institutional blockholders in Vietnam’s stock market.

Crash risk is measured by the negative coefficient of skewness of firm-specific weekly returns (NCSKEW) and the down-to-up volatility of firm-specific weekly stock returns (DUVOL). Liquidity is measured by adjusted Amihud illiquidity. The two-stage least squares method is used to address endogeneity issues.

Using firm-level data from Vietnam, we find that crash risk increases with stock liquidity. The relationship is stronger in firms owned by institutional blockholders. Moreover, intensive selling by institutional blockholders in the future will positively moderate the relationship between liquidity and crash risk.

Since stock liquidity could exacerbate crash risk through institutional blockholder trading, firm managers should avoid bad news accumulation and practice timely information disclosures. Investors should be mindful of the risk associated with liquidity and blockholder trading.

We contribute to the literature by showing that the activities of blockholders could partly explain the relationship between liquidity and crash risk. High liquidity encourages blockholders to exit upon receiving private bad news.

This study aims to examine the impact of employee treatment on stock price crash risk in emerging markets. The study further sheds light on the economic channels and boundary conditions between employee treatment and crash risk.

This study employs a large-scale archival dataset of Chinese A-share listed firms covering 2010 to 2021. To establish causality, the study leverages multi-way fixed effects, Oster’s test, change regression and instrumental variable methods to alleviate endogeneity concerns.

The results reveal that employee-friendly treatment leads to a lower crash risk. Moreover, improving internal control quality and enhancing firm reputation appear to be the two plausible economic channels through which employee treatment mitigates crash risk. Cross-sectionally, the documented impact is more evident for human-capital-intensive firms, firms with weaker external monitoring and those operating in fiercely competitive industries.

This study is among the first to show that employee treatment has a favorable consequence for shareholder benefit through reducing crash risk. The study thus adds to the ongoing debate regarding the relationship between employee treatment and shareholder wealth. The study also extends the nascent literature on the role of rank-and-file employees in shaping corporate information landscapes.

This study aims to explore the relationship between chief executive officer (CEO) power and stock price crash risk in India. Furthermore, it seeks to analyse how insider trades may moderate the impact of CEO power on stock price crash risk.

A study of 236 companies from the S&P BSE 500 Index (2014–2023) have been analysed through pooled ordinary least square (OLS) regression in the baseline analysis. To enhance the results' reliability, robustness checks include alternative methodologies, such as panel data regression with fixed-effects, binary logistic regression and Bayesian regression. Additional control variables and alternative crash risk measure have also been utilised. To address potential endogeneity, instrumental variable techniques such as two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) and difference-in-difference (DiD) methodologies are utilised.

Stakeholder theory is supported by results revealing that CEO power proxies like CEO duality, status and directorship reduce one-year ahead stock price crash risk and vice versa. Insider trades are found to moderate the link between select dimensions of CEO power and stock price crash risk. These findings persist after addressing potential endogeneity concerns, and the results remain consistent across alternative methodologies and variable inclusions.

This study significantly advances research on stock price crash risk, especially in emerging economies like India. The implications of these findings are crucial for investors aiming to mitigate crash risk, for corporations seeking enhanced governance measures and for policymakers considering the economic and welfare consequences associated with this phenomenon.

This study aims to predict stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach (current index level relative to historical maximum) during periods of global and local events, namely the subprime crisis of 2008, the political and social instability of 2011 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Over the period 2004–2020, a log-periodic power law model (LPPL) has been employed which describes the price dynamics preceding the beginning dates of the crisis. In order to adjust the LPPL model, the Global Search algorithm was developed using the “fmincon” function.

By minimizing the sum of square errors between the observed logarithmic indices and the LPPL predicted values, the authors find that the estimated parameters satisfy all the constraints imposed in the literature. Moreover, the adjustment line of the LPPL models to the logarithms of the indices closely corresponds to the observed trend of the logarithms of the indices, which was overall bullish before the crashes. The most predicted dates correspond to the start dates of the stock market crashes identified by the CMAX approach. Therefore, the forecasted stock market crashes are the results of the bursting of speculative bubbles and, consequently, of the price deviation from their fundamental values.

The adoption of the LPPL model might be very beneficial for financial market participants in reducing their financial crash risk exposure and managing their equity portfolio risk.

This study differs from previous research in several ways. First of all, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the authors' paper is among the first to show stock market crises detection and prediction, specifically in African countries, since they generate recessionary economic and social dynamics on a large extent and on multiple regional and global scales. Second, in this manuscript, the authors employ the LPPL model, which can expect the most probable day of the beginning of the crash by analyzing excessive stock price volatility.

Since stock return and volatility matters to investors, this study proposes to incorporate the textual sentiment of annual reports in stock price crash risk prediction.

Specific sentences gathered from management discussions and their subsequent analyses are tokenized and transformed into numeric vectors using textual mining techniques, and then the Naïve Bayes method is applied to score the sentiment, which is used as an input variable for crash risk prediction. The results are compared between a collection of predictive models, including linear regression (LR) and machine learning techniques.

The experimental results find that those predictive models that incorporate textual sentiment significantly outperform the baseline models with only accounting and market variables included. These conclusions hold when crash risk is proxied by either the negative skewness of the return distribution or down-to-up volatility (DUVOL).

It should be noted that the authors' study focuses on examining the predictive power of textual sentiment in crash risk prediction, while other dimensions of textual features such as readability and thematic contents are not considered. More analysis is needed to explore the predictive power of textual features from various dimensions, with the most recent sample data included in future studies.

The authors' study provides implications for the information value of textual data in financial analysis and risk management. It suggests that the soft information contained within annual reports may prove informative in crash risk prediction, and the incorporation of textual sentiment provides an incremental improvement in overall predictive performance.

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.

The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.

Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.

This paper examines how a firm's hierarchical complexity, which is determined by the way it organizes its subsidiaries across the hierarchical levels, can impact its stock price crash risk.

The authors employ a measure of hierarchical complexity that captures the depth and breadth of how subsidiaries are organized within a firm. This measure is calculated using information about firms' subsidiaries extracted from the Bureau van Dijk (BvD) database that allows the authors to construct each firm's hierarchical structure. The data sample includes 2,461 USA firms for the period from 2012 to 2017 (11,006 firm-year observations). Univariate tests and panel regression are used for the main analysis. Two-stage-least-squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression and various other tests are employed for robustness check.

The results show a positive relationship between hierarchical complexity and stock price crash risk. This relationship is amplified in firms with a greater number of subsidiaries that are hierarchically distanced from the parent company as well as in firms with a greater number of foreign subsidiaries in countries with weaker rule of law.

This paper is the first to investigate the impact hierarchical complexity has on crash risk. The results highlight the role that a firm's organizational structure can have on asset pricing behavior.

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between formal institutions and stock price crash risk from a global perspective.

This paper uses data of 35,468 firms globally over the years 1987–2019 and address the endogeneity issue by employing the Mundlak random effects estimator.

The authors find a significant negative impact of institution quality on stock price crash risk (i.e. better institutions reduce crash risk), after controlling for common determinants of crash risk such as leverage, return on asset, firm size, investment, etc. as well as macro factors such as GDP growth. This effect is robust to different measures of crash risk and sub-indicators of institutions quality. In addition, the authors also find this effect to be universally present in economies characterized by different levels of income.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, there's no known study that explores the potential causal relationship between institution quality and stock price crash risk. Therefore, the research topic in this study is original and can contribute significantly to the existing literature.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how COVID-19 lockdowns in the USA impacted traffic safety.

The authors explored the role of vehicle, user and built environment factors on traffic fatalities in the USA, comparing results during COVID-19 lockdowns (March 19th through April 30th, 2020) to results for the same time period during the five preceding years. The authors accomplished this through proportional comparisons and negative binomial regression models.

While traffic levels were 30%–50% below normal during the COVID-19 lockdowns, all traffic fatalities decreased by 18.3%, pedestrian fatalities decreased by 19.0% and bicyclist fatalities increased by 3.6%. Fatal COVID-19 crashes were more likely single-vehicle crashes involving fixed objects or rollovers. COVID-19 traffic fatalities were most common on arterial roadways and in lower density suburban built environments. Findings suggest the importance of vulnerable road users, speed management and holistic built environment policy when pursuing safety on the streets.

The findings have road safety implications not only for future pandemics and other similar events where we would expect decreases in motor vehicle volumes (such as natural disasters and economic downturns) but also for cities that are pursuing mode shift away from personal automobiles and toward alternative modes of transportation.