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We examine the roles of sample initial conditions and unobserved individual effects in consistent estimation of the dynamic binary response panel data model. Different specifications of the model are estimated using female welfare and labor force participation data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. These include alternative random effects (RE) models, in which the conditional distributions of both the unobserved heterogeneity and the initial conditions are specified, and fixed effects (FE) conditional logit models that make no assumptions on either distribution. There are several findings. First, the hypothesis that the sample initial conditions are exogenous is rejected by both samples. Misspecification of the initial conditions results in drastically overstated estimates of the state dependence and understated estimates of the short- and long-run effects of children on labor force participation. The FE conditional logit estimates are similar to the estimates from the RE model that is flexible with respect to both the initial conditions and the correlation between the unobserved heterogeneity and the covariates. For female labor force participation, there is evidence that fertility choices are correlated with both unobserved heterogeneity and pre-sample participation histories.

This paper seeks to explain the serial persistence as well as the substantial number of zeros characterizing global bilateral investment holdings. We explore the different sources of serial persistence in the data (unobserved country pair effects, genuine state dependence, and transitory shocks) and examine the crucial factors affecting the decision to invest in a host country.

Based on a gravity setup, we consider investment behavior at the extensive (participation) margin and employ dynamic first-order Markov probit models, controlling for unobserved cross-sectional heterogeneity and serial correlation in the transitory error component, in order to explore the sources of persistence. Within this modeling framework we explore the importance of institutional quality of the host country in attracting foreign investment.

The data support that the strong persistence is driven by true state dependence, implying that past investment experiences strongly impact on the trajectory of future investment holdings. Institutional quality appears to play a significant role to attract foreign investment.

The empirical findings suggest that due to the existence of genuine state dependence, inward-investment stimulating policy measures could have a more pronounced effect since they are likely to induce a permanent change to the future trajectory of inward investment.

Both the substantial number of zeros and the salient persistence characterizing bilateral investment holdings decision have been previously overlooked in the literature. A study modeling jointly the levels and the selection mechanism could prove a fruitful direction for future research.

This paper aims to discuss multilevel modeling for longitudinal data, clarifying the circumstances in which they can be used.

The authors estimate three-level models with repeated measures, offering conditions for their correct interpretation.

From the concepts and techniques presented, the authors can propose models, in which it is possible to identify the fixed and random effects on the dependent variable, understand the variance decomposition of multilevel random effects, test alternative covariance structures to account for heteroskedasticity and calculate and interpret the intraclass correlations of each analysis level.

Understanding how nested data structures and data with repeated measures work enables researchers and managers to define several types of constructs from which multilevel models can be used.

This paper investigates the effect of household size, and in particular of the number of children of different age groups, on poverty, defined as being in a situation of low income. We apply various static and dynamic probit models to control for the endogeneity of the variables of interest and to account for unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence, and serially correlated error components. Using Luxembourg longitudinal data, we show that the number of children of different age groups significantly affects the probability of being poor. However, the magnitude of the effect varies across different specifications. In addition, we find strong evidence of true poverty persistency due to past experience, spurious poverty persistency due to individual heterogeneity, and transitory random shocks.

This study investigates the role of national culture between outreach and sustainability of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Despite microfinance's deep embeddedness in cultural contexts, research on the influence of national culture on MFI performance is rather sparse. This paper seeks to fill this gap and, based on cross-country microfinance data, attempts to explain the outreach-sustainability relationship in reference to cultural factors.

An unbalanced panel, consisting of 5,741 MFI-year observations of 1,232 MFIs from 43 countries in six regions, is drawn from the Microfinance Information Exchange (MIX) Market database. Two different econometric models are tested. Model 1 estimates the direct effect of outreach on sustainability, using a fixed-effects estimator. Model 2 examines the moderation effect of national culture on outreach-sustainability relationship, employing correlated random effects approach.

The results show that depth of outreach and financial sustainability of MFIs are negatively related, and the relationship is moderated by national culture. Power distance and uncertainty avoidance positively moderate the outreach-sustainability relationship, whereas individualism and masculinity negatively moderate the relationship.

The findings suggest that the national culture where MFIs are located plays an important contingent role in their performance and that the magnitude of the trade-off effect varies from culture to culture. The research thus provides further insight in the trade-off debate and contributes to literatures of both microfinance and cross-cultural management.

The author proposes analyzing the dynamics of income positions using dynamic panel ordered probit models. The author disentangles, simultaneously, the roles of state dependence and heterogeneity (observed and non-observed) in explaining income position persistence, such as poverty persistence and affluence persistence. The author applies the approach to Chile exploiting longitudinal data from the P-CASEN 2006–2009. First, the author finds that income position mobility at the bottom and the top of the income distribution is much higher than expected, showing signs that income mobility in the case of Chile might be connected to economic insecurity. Second, the observable individual characteristics have a much stronger impact than true state dependence to explain individuals’ current income position in the income distribution extremes.

Over the past 50 years, air travel in the United States has increased from approximately 33 million passengers in 1960 to over 607 million passengers in 2007 (National Transportation Statistics, 2011, Table 1–40). This is over an 18-fold increase in air travel in the past five decades. Over that same time period, the number of airports increased modestly, from 15,161 in 1980 to 19,750 in 2009. The number of those airports serving public commercial traffic is even smaller, and has declined from 730 airports in 1980 to 559 in 2009 (National Transportation Statistics, 2011, Table 1–3). Together, these two facts point to phenomenal growth among airports (measured by the number of passenger trips).

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the understanding of labour force participation behaviour of married Australian women, with a focus on identifying the sources of observed inter-temporal labour force participation persistence.

A dynamic Probit model is applied to the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, a national representative panel survey of Australian households. The model used accounts for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity and serially correlated transitory shocks to labour supply.

The results show that both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity contributes to observed inter-temporal persistence of labour force participation of married Australian women, but the persistence remains even after controlling for these factors. It is also found that failing to control for serially correlated unobserved transitory shocks would lead to underestimation of genuine state dependence of labour force participation; and that state dependence of labour force participation varies with age, education, health, immigration status and the number of children under the school age.

This study adds to the international literature on labour force dynamics of women by providing Australian empirical evidence and through a flexible modelling framework. The result that there exists genuine positive state dependence in married Australian women’s labour force participation suggests that policy intervention that increases married women’s labour supply would have a long-lasting effect.

This paper investigates the employment dynamics of Greek married women.

Longitudinal/panel data for the period 1995‐2001 and dynamic discrete choice models are used for estimation purposes.

It is found that the probability of being employed is influenced by observed individual characteristics (e.g. human capital, fertility and unearned income), while genuine state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity constitute major sources of observed serial persistence. The results show that lagged employment affects current employment decisions in a systematic way, and that the non‐contemporaneous effects of unearned income and fertility correlate with unobserved heterogeneity. The estimated average partial effects reveal that an employed woman in t−1 has a probability of being employed in t that is almost 50 percentage points higher than for a non‐employed woman.

The presence of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity imply that the bridging of the female employment gap between Greece and its EU partners is expected to follow a slow, long‐term course.

Greek female labour force participation has been studied only under a static analytical framework. This is the first study to investigate employment decisions of Greek married women in an inter‐temporal setting.