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1 – 10 of 60This study analyses empirically the Granger causality between commodity ETFs listed in KRX (Korea Stock Exchange) and the price determinants of the underlying commodities as well…
Abstract
This study analyses empirically the Granger causality between commodity ETFs listed in KRX (Korea Stock Exchange) and the price determinants of the underlying commodities as well as the KOSPI200 index and the underlying indices, and compares the performance of four commodity ETFs : gold futures, oil futures, soybean futures and the copper price. The main findings are as follows : First, the commodity ETFs tracking gold futures, oil futures and soybean futures prices in the sample from the inception to June 2015 were not directly related to the price determinants of the underlying commodities except for the copper ETF which was affected by the oil price as one of the price determinants of copper. In addition, all four ETFs were not related to the KOSPI200 index while they were affected by the underlying indices. Second, the soybean futures ETF outperformed the KOSPI200 index in terms of the cumulative returns and the oil futures ETF recorded the worst performance in terms of the cumulative returns and IR (information ratio). Third, the average tracking error of each ETF except for the oil futures ETF showed a positive value and the price of each ETF except for the soybean futures ETF has been undervalued compared to its net asset value. From the above findings, we can infer that investors in the copper ETF should closely watch the movement of the oil price to enhance the return and investors in the commodity ETFs should first consider agriculture-related ETFs rather than oil-related ETFs considering the price volatility. In addition, the inverse ETFs for copper and agriculture-related products should be introduced following the oil and gold futures inverse ETFs to protect against negative returns in a declining period of commodity prices.
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Kai Foerstl, Anni-Kaisa Kähkönen, Constantin Blome and Matthias Goellner
This paper aims to conceptualize supply market orientation (SMO) for the purchasing and supply chain management function and discusses how SMO capabilities are developed and how…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to conceptualize supply market orientation (SMO) for the purchasing and supply chain management function and discusses how SMO capabilities are developed and how their application differs within and across firms. This research can thus be used as a blueprint for the development of a SMO capability that accommodates a firm’s unique contextual antecedents’ profile.
Design/methodology/approach
The qualitative research design comprises five in-depth case studies with 43 semi-structured interviews with large manufacturing and service firms.
Findings
SMO is defined as the capability to exploit market intelligence to assess, integrate and reconfigure the heterogeneously dispersed resources in purchasing and supply chain management in a way that best reflects the peculiarities of a firm’s supply environment. The empirical analysis shows that although SMO capabilities are configured similarly, their application varies across and within firms depending on the characteristics of a firm’s purchasing categories and tasks. Hence, reactive versus proactive SMO application is contingent upon firm-level and purchasing category–level characteristics.
Originality/value
The study uses the dynamic capabilities view as a theoretical background and provides empirical evidence and theoretical reasoning to elaborate and endorse SMO as a dynamic capability that firms need to have to compete in a complex and dynamic environment. The study provides guidance for supply chain managers on how to successfully develop and deploy a SMO capability.
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Yi Ding and Zhonghua Yin
Rosewood, as the most internationally traded endangered species, is subject to a series of restrictive trade policies globally. China has historically been the largest importer of…
Abstract
Purpose
Rosewood, as the most internationally traded endangered species, is subject to a series of restrictive trade policies globally. China has historically been the largest importer of rosewood in the world. The fluctuation of China’s rosewood import prices will have a profound impact on the global rosewood trade pattern. This study, therefore, assessed the impact of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices to explore the fluctuation rule of rosewood trade prices under restrictive policies.
Design/methodology/approach
The study built a partial equilibrium framework about the formation mechanism of rosewood import price bubbles under supply constraints. On this basis, with China’s daily import prices of major rosewood species, the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and backward supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (BSADF) tests were applied to explore the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices.
Findings
The empirical analysis revealed that there were multiple price bubbles for five of the seven rosewood species. The largest bubbles were always created before and after the deployment of supply constraints. The empirical results for the counterfactual examples implied that price bubbles would not have occurred if restrictive rosewood trade policies had not been implemented. The above findings indicated that these measures tended to trigger significant price bubbles in China’s rosewood imports.
Originality/value
The effect of restrictive rosewood trade policies on rosewood trade prices had not yet been explored in previous research studies. This study empirically analyzed the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices using econometric models.
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Aiza Shabbir, Shazia Kousar and Syeda Azra Batool
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test.
Findings
The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market.
Research limitations/implications
Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set.
Originality/value
This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.
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Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the years the European Muslim population will be majority among 30 European countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology/approach is to forecast the population of 30 European countries with wavelet analysis combined with the Burg model which fits a pth order autoregressive model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson–Durbin recursion, then relies on an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Three scenarios are considered: the zero-migration scenario where the authors assume that the Muslim population has a higher fertility (one child more per woman, on average) than other Europeans, mirroring a global pattern; a 2017 migration scenario: to the Muslim population obtained in the zero-migration scenario, the authors add a continuous flow of migrants every year based on year 2017; the mid-point migration scenario is obtained by averaging the data of the two previous scenarios.
Findings
Among three scenarios, the most likely mid-point migration scenario identifies 13 countries where the Muslim population will be majority between years 2085 and 2215: Cyprus (in year 2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), the UK (2180), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200) and Lithuania (2215). The 17 remaining countries will never reach majority in the next 200 years.
Originality/value
The growing Muslim population will change the face of Europe socially, politically and economically. This paper will provide a better insight and understanding of Muslim population dynamics to European governments, policymakers, as well as social and economic planners.
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This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies.
Design/methodology/approach
The author used a structural vector autorregresive analysis where the selection of variables is conditional on a New Keynesian Model for a small open economy.
Findings
The evidence indicates that the Argentinean nominal exchange rate appreciated less while its output and inflation grew more than those of the other nations when subjected to commodity shocks. These results are interpreted as a more aggressive leaning-against-the-wind intervention by Argentina, probably to avoid the Dutch disease. Although the effects with regard to output were indeed stronger in Argentina, this was only at the expense of higher inflation and volatility suffered during the boom.
Originality/value
At the time of the writing of this paper, no work had evaluated Argentinean underperformace to the manner in which its exchange rate policy was handled in comparison with the rest of the region during the boom. This paper intends to fill this gap.
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Korea and China have promoted a bilateral FTA since 2005 to upgrade their economic relationships. If the Korea-China FTA is concluded, then trade between the two countries is…
Abstract
Korea and China have promoted a bilateral FTA since 2005 to upgrade their economic relationships. If the Korea-China FTA is concluded, then trade between the two countries is likely to involve substantial changes both quantitatively and qualitatively. Offer lists submitted by Korea include steel, petrochemicals and machinery and those by China include some agricultural and marine products as well as nonferrous metals. Korea's interest in the Korea-China FTA has focused mainly on damage to the agricultural sector and there have been a lot of studies on the effects of the FTA on Korean agricultural sector. However, little is known about why China includes the nonferrous metals industry for early voluntary liberalization and its implications for the domestic economy. Nonferrous metals industry is one of China’s national strategic sectors and has a large supply excess in the country. This study targets the survey of Chinese nonferrous metals industry and trade structure and considers the problem of nonferrous metals in the context of negotiations for the Korea-China FTA and its implications for a higher-quality Korea-China FTA.
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This study aims to evaluate the role of the prevailing currency systems in achieving (or departing from) the socio-economic objectives of a progressive and just society; i.e…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the role of the prevailing currency systems in achieving (or departing from) the socio-economic objectives of a progressive and just society; i.e. featuring stability and equitable distribution of wealth.
Design/methodology/approach
After documenting historical developments in currency systems, the study reviews the Islamic perspective on the matter. Features of an ideal currency system are listed and then a critical evaluation of existing currency systems – fiat, banking and cryptocurrency – is undertaken.
Findings
It is found that existing currency systems – fiat, banking and cryptocurrency – are not compatible with the socio-economic objectives of a forward-looking, progressive society, which upholds transparency and justice as its core values. The study documents that Sharīʿah norms have no preference or dislike for any of the existing currency systems. Any prudent currency system compatible with the objectives of the Islamic financial system (i.e. stability and equitable distribution of wealth) is acceptable. A single international reserve currency (with country-specific legal tendering) is subject to the risk of destabilisation across global markets.
Practical implications
This paper recommends autonomy of central banking, the spending of seigniorage for the welfare of community members, development of asset-backed currencies (following ṣukūk structures), as well as multiple international reserve currencies and joining of hands by professionals and Sharīʿah scholars to design a currency system compatible with the Islamic financial system. This paper’s recommendation is against the adoption of cryptocurrency that lacks the backing of real assets.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by evaluating the compatibility of existing currency systems in the achievement of socio-economic objectives of a welfare state which seeks to uphold justice and equitable resource distribution as core values in the financial system.
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Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate…
Abstract
Purpose
Transparent and fair price discovery is essential to commodity market participants in the trade value chain for competitive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the price discovery of Indian cardamom at e-auction, spot and futures markets in addition to the existence of the day of the week effect at e-auction apart from exploring a novel price risk management framework.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used Johansen co-integration, vector error correction model, Granger causality and regression with dummy variables to understand a day of the week effect in high-value agri-commodity of cardamom e-auction prices. These price data were based on authenticated sources of Spices Board India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Findings
The statistical results indicate price discovery exists in the e-auction market and it leads to spot and futures prices. cardamom e-auction prices are negatively related to cardamom futures and positively related to spot prices. It also finds the non-existence of the day of the week effect in the high-value cardamom e-auction system in India. The study revealed that a cardamom e-auction is more active in price discovery than a cardamom futures contract.
Research limitations/implications
These results shall facilitate policymakers to explore intervention of online forward market mechanism at the national level to ensure price discovery and market efficiency. However, the study did not explore reasons for the non-equilibrium of a cardamom futures contract with spot and e-auction market.
Practical implications
The results of this study are useful in understanding the price discovery of cardamom e-auction and its role in the spot and futures market. Cardamom price discovery depends upon the e-auction system; any change of auction policy shall be binding on Indian cardamom prices. The introduction of an online forward market mechanism as described in the paper shall facilitate price risk management apart from improving the efficiency of price discovery.
Originality/value
This is the first study considering cardamom e-auction, spot and futures prices in the price discovery process in India. Statistical results of a day of the week effect clearly show no significant volatility of cardamom prices during the week. Besides, this study did not find the role of cardamom futures contracts intended to serve the economic function of price discovery and price risk management. Hence, suggests policy intervention for implementing an online Forward Market mechanism for Indian cardamom to ensure market efficiency and manage price risk.
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Muhammad Sholihin, Nurus Shalihin and Apria Putra
The article examines Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabauwi's initial concept of paper money, which in the early 20th century wrote Risala Raf'u Al-Iltibas.
Abstract
Purpose
The article examines Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabauwi's initial concept of paper money, which in the early 20th century wrote Risala Raf'u Al-Iltibas.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a qualitative approach based on the critical extraction analysis that can reveal a set of concepts related to the thoughts of Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabauwi on paper money.
Findings
Through an attentive reading of Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabawi, the authors can formulate several significant results: First, Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabawi applies two methods in studying critically on paper money, namely, the comparative law method and qiyas. Second, Ahmad Khatib believes that paper money has similarities with dinars and dirhams, namely its nominal value function. It is just that the existence of these values is different. Briefly, there are set law consequences for those who used paper money in economic activities, i.e. payment of zakāt on paper money applies when used as business capital.
Research limitations/implications
Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabawi's work related to paper money is written heavily from the perspective of fiqh. Briefly, it is challenging to describe legal reasoning from work. As a result, articles are also thicker with fiqh analysis.
Practical implications
Sheikh Ahmad Khatib Al-Minangkabawi's view regarding paper money becomes the foundation for the theory of the value of money in Islam. However, it is rarely disclosed. In this regard, this paper can serve as the foundation of the value for money offered by scholars from Indonesia in the early 20th century.
Social implications
Money is not a commodity. Still, it must be positioned as capital to be productive. It finally becomes why trade is compelling and becomes the most practical reason for paying out zakāt.
Originality/value
It is not easy finding out articles that attempt to reveal the concept of classical ulemas or clerics from Indonesia relating to paper money. This article manages to identify that, and at the same time, becomes a novelty.
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