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The purpose of this paper is to assess trading strategies adopted by each large trader group and examine their effects on the volatility in the interest rate futures markets.

The Grinblatt et al.'s (1995) measure of momentum strategy is used to estimate the degree momentum and contrarian strategies. Then, regression analysis is used to determine the effects of trading strategies on volatility.

Up until 2005, the trades by non-clearing member firms in the futures market were separated from institutional traders providing us the opportunity to study trading strategies adopted by large distinct trading groups and its effects on volatility in the futures markets. It is found that individual traders use momentum strategy, whereas market makers and institutional traders use contrarian strategy. Momentum strategy adopted by individual traders increases volatility whereas contrarian strategy dampens volatility. Moreover, it is found that institutional traders engage more actively in contrarian trading when individual traders cause excessive volatility. The two distinct trading groups were separately tracked prior to 2005 giving us a unique window to determine the effect of the traders that conduct momentum trading as opposed to the ones that are contrarian traders. After the reclassification, the institutional trading group exhibited weaker contrarian strategy which can be attributed to the inclusion of non-clearing firm traders.

This study documents the first empirical evidence that shows off-exchange futures trader group is not composed of only pure noise makers, but there are short-term forecasters in its group. The authors also show a unique finding that noises caused by off-exchange group is from momentum strategy that they use, whereas contrarian strategy is used by institutional trader lower volatility.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the interaction between sentiments and past prices can lead to higher abnormal profit in futures markets. Such examinations allow the authors to relate the paper to the debate that focuses on examining the behavior of different types of traders in futures market, and who among these traders destabilize the markets.

First, the authors develop new dynamic strategies in US futures market that combine sentiment by type of traders based on trader position provided by the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders with short-term contrarian signals. Next, the authors adjust the abnormal profits to the CAPM model and Miffre and Rallis’s (2007) model. Finally, the authors use the Du (2012) decomposition methodology.

The main findings are that the abnormal profit is more pronounced when the authors combine past returns with lagged high producer/merchant/processor/user or low managed money sentiment. The results from swap dealer or other reportable groups show that there is no pervasive directional relation between their sentiment and contrarian profit. A further investigation of the sources of abnormal profits demonstrates that these profits survive even after the adjustment of obtained return to risk. Instead, these profits are mainly due to the overreaction to the news by irrational traders.

Based on behavioral finance theories, the authors conclude that producer, merchant, processor and user behave like irrational traders, while managed money traders behave like rational ones. Given that current regulatory proposes the limitation of speculation, the policy implications of these results are important. Therefore, these findings suggest that policy distinctions on trading motives may be more challenging to construct than ever.

The purpose of this paper is to study the US stock market and try to explain why short-term contrarian profits have largely disappeared in the past two decades.

In this work, the authors decompose the short-term contrarian profits into cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects to study the changes in their shares. Then, the authors study the behavior of the subgroups in the winner and loser subportfolios of contrarian investment strategies.

The authors find that short-term contrarian profits have largely vanished since 2000. Changes in the shares of the three components of contrarian profits, which are cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects, are not the main reason for the disappearance of contrarian profits in the past two decades. Instead, the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits is primarily due to the heterogeneous evolution of subgroups in the portfolio, which leads to a decrease in the overall level of overreactions that drive the contrarian profit.

The work explains the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits in the US stock market.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between predictability in return and investment strategy performance. Two measures that characterize investment strategies within a mean‐variance framework, an activity measure and a style measure, are developed and the performance of alternative strategies (e.g. contrarian, momentum, etc.) is examined when risky asset returns are mean reverting.

Returns are assumed to follow a multivariate Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, where reversion to a time‐varying mean is governed by an additional variable set, similar to that proposed by Lo and Wang (1995). Depending on its parameterization, this process is capable of producing an autocorrelation pattern consistent with empirical evidence, that is, positive autocorrelation in short‐horizon returns and negative autocorrelation in long‐horizon returns.

The results, for four uninformed investment strategies and assuming that returns are generated by a simple univariate Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process, show that the unadjusted returns from the contrarian (momentum) strategy are greater than those from the other strategies when the mean reversion parameter, α, is greater than (less than) one. The results are expected, given the relationship between α and the first‐order autocorrelation in returns. The risk level (measured by either the standard deviation of returns or beta) of the contrarian strategy is the lowest at essentially all levels of mean reversion and the risk‐adjusted returns from the contrarian strategy, measured by the both the Sharpe and Treynor ratios, dominate those from the other strategies.

In future research, a number of issues not considered in this study may be investigated. The style measure developed here can be used to determine whether the results obtained hold when an informed, mean‐variance efficient active strategy is employed. In addition, the performance of both the informed and uninformed strategies may be examined under the assumption that the risky return process follows a multivariate Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck process. This work should provide findings that facilitate the separation of fund risk due to dynamic strategies from that due to time‐varying expected returns.

The methodology used here may be easily extended to consider a number of important issues, such as the frequency of portfolio rebalancing, transactions costs, and multiple asset portfolios, that are encountered in practice.

The approach used here provides insight into how predictability affects the relative performance of tactical investment strategies and, thus, may serve as a basis for determining the magnitude and persistence in autocorrelation required for active investment strategies to yield profits significantly different from those of passive strategies. In this sense, this study may have appeal for both academics and investment professionals.

Reviews previous research on contrarian investment strategy (i.e. buying “losers” and selling “winners”) and analyses the results of applying the strategy to US stocks 1928‐1992. Explains the methodology and presents the results, which show no statistically significant holding period returns from the strategy, although selling the “winners” is significant. Considers the implications and limitations of the study and calls for further research.

The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research.

Critical review and discussion of the literature.

The extant literature is dynamic and is typified by a number of open questions.

The open questions in the literature relate mainly to the driving forces of investment performance, and the role of risk and asset pricing as well as behavioral human traits. The literature is vast and therefore difficult to classify, cover and discuss.

The paper indicates the possible need for: the development of different asset pricing models and propositions that can have practical implications at a more international context.

The paper provides a critical review of the literature and identifies open issues for future research.

This study develops an environment, social, and governance (ESG) momentum strategy by combining information about ESG scores and the momentum effect. This study, subsequently, applies the ESG momentum strategy to Taiwanese and Japanese stock markets and investigates the performance of the ESG momentum strategy in each market. Detailed comparisons of the ESG scores and ESG momentum performance between the two markets are conducted. The empirical results show that the ESG momentum strategy can obtain enhanced profits in the Taiwanese market, while the ESG momentum strategy cannot lead to substantial profits in the Japanese market. In addition, the ESG momentum effect in the Taiwanese market can last for three years after portfolio formation. In the Japanese market, the ESG contrarian strategy may deliver better profits than the ESG momentum strategy.

As of May 2022, the National Pension Service of Korea is the world's third-largest pension fund, with assets worth KRW912tn (approximately $US800bn). Of the KRW152tn (approximately $US133bn) invested in domestic equities, 45% is outsourced to external asset managers. Given the absence of prior research on the National Pension Service's (NPS's) management method, this study analyzes its trading strategies and market impact according to the fund management method from 2005 to 2022. The results are as follows: First, the stock characteristics selected by internal management using passive strategies are different from those selected by external management, in which various strategies are combined. Second, the contrarian investment strategy, which acts as a market stabilizer, is a characteristic of the external management trading pattern, while internal management increases volatility and does not improve liquidity. Third, there has been a change in the internal management strategy since 2016, when the fund management headquarters was relocated. This study is practically significant and distinctive in that it confirms the differences between the NPS's two investment methods in terms of trading strategies and market impact.

This study aims to focus on the profitability of momentum trading in the Korean stock market. More specifically, it aims to conduct an examination of the relationship between momentum returns and idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) to determine whether momentum profits can be explained by IVol.

Portfolios are formed based on their past performance and examine the momentum, or contrarian returns, as the difference between winning and losing portfolios. To confirm that the momentum strategy provides excess returns, the relationship between momentum returns and IVol is studied. The Fama and French three‐factor model is also examined to see whether systematic risk affects momentum profits. Firm size, stock price, and turnover are controlled to determine robustness. Finally, a time‐series relationship between aggregate IVol and momentum profits is investigated.

The paper illustrates that excess returns are obtained from a momentum strategy, not a contrarian strategy, in the Korean stock market. Momentum returns are higher among high IVol stocks, especially high IVol winners. Examining the Fama and French three‐factor model, it is found that momentum returns cannot be explained by systematic risk. The findings are robust after controlling for factors such as firm size, book‐to‐market ratio, and turnover. The paper confirms the effect of IVol on momentum returns by illustrating that a time‐series relationship between momentum returns and aggregate IVol is positive.

This paper is among the first, to the authors' knowledge, to examine the relationship between momentum profits and IVol in the Korean stock market, one of the mature financial markets. The findings in this study can be applied to better understand the sources of gains from the momentum strategy in international stock markets.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze long-term prior return patterns in stock returns for India.

The methodology involves portfolio generation based on company characteristics and long-term prior return (24-60 months). The characteristic sorted portfolios are then regressed on risk factors using one factor (capital asset pricing model (CAPM)) and multi-factor model (Fama-French (FF) model and four factor model involving three FF factors and an additional sectoral momentum factor).

After controlling for short-term momentum (up to 12 months) as documented by Sehgal and Jain (2011), the authors observe that weak reversals emerge for the sample stocks. The risk model CAPM fails to account for these long-run prior return patterns. FF three-factor model is able to explain long-term prior return patterns in stock returns with the exception of 36-12-12 strategy. The value factor plays an important role while the size factor does not explain cross-section of average returns. Momentum patterns exist in long-term sector returns, which are stronger for long-term portfolio formation periods. Further, the authors construct sector factor and observe that prior returns patterns in stock returns are partially absorbed by this factor.

The findings are relevant for investment analysts and portfolio managers who are continuously tracking global markets, including India, in pursuit of extra normal returns.

The study contributes to the asset pricing and behavioral literature from emerging markets.