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The purpose of this study is to attempt to analyze Granger causality in the frequency domain framework between producers' prices measured by wholesale price index (WPI) and consumers' prices measured by consumer price index (CPI) in the context of India.

Analysis was carried out in the framework of time series and for analysis Johansen and Juselius's maximum likelihood approach for cointegration was applied after confirming that variables are integrated of order one, i.e. I(1) through the Lee and Strazicich unit root test. Finally, Granger causality was tested in the frequency domain by utilizing a recently developed approach of Lemmens et al. over the period January 1957‐February 2009.

The paper finds that CPI Granger cause WPI at a lower, intermediate as well as higher levels of frequency, reflecting very long‐run, intermediate as well as short‐run cycles. By contrast WPI Granger cause CPI at 5 percent level of significance was found at intermediate frequencies, reflecting significant intermediate cycles.

The study reveals that CPI is a leading indicator of producers' prices and inflation (i.e. WPI). This gives an indication that Indian policy analysts ought to control for factors affecting CPI in order to have control on WPI since WPI is used for making various macroeconomic indicators in real terms.

The main contribution of the paper is to show the evidence of bidirectional causality between WPI and CPI. Furthermore, use of a recent approach developed by Lemmens et al. for Granger causality in the frequency domain in this study is also relatively new. To the best of the author's knowledge there is no such study in this area either for developed or developing economy to date.

While most Americans have heard of the consumer price index, many people are not knowledgeable about its meaning or history. In this article, Karen Chapman explains how the index reflects and affects the nation's economy, and lists sources of related information.

Purpose: Investors and portfolio managers can earn profitably when they correctly predict when stock prices will go up or down. For this reason, it is crucial to know the effect levels of the factors that affect stock prices. In addition to macroeconomic factors, the psychological behavior of investors also affects stock prices. Therefore, the study aims to reveal the different sensitivity levels of the stock index against macroeconomic and psychological factors.

Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, dollar rate (USD), euro rate (EURO), time deposit interest rate (IR), gold price (GOLD), industrial production index (IPI), and consumer price index (CPI) (inflation (INF)) were used as macroeconomic factors, while Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and VIX Fear Index (VIX) were used as psychological factors. In addition, the BIST-100 index, which is listed in Borsa Istanbul, was used as the stock index. The sensitivity of the stock index to macroeconomic and psychological factors was investigated using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) method using data from January 2012 to October 2020.

Findings: In the analyses performed using the MARS method, the coefficients of INF, USD, EURO, IR, CCI, and VIX Index were found to be statistically significant and effective on the stock index. Among these variables, INF has the highest effect on stocks. It is followed by USD, IR, EURO, CCI, and VIX. GOLD and IPI variables did not show statistical significance in the model. The most important difference of the MARS model from other regressions is that each factor’s effect on the stock index is analyzed by separating it according to the value of the factor. According to the results obtained from the MARS model: (1) it has been determined that USD, EURO, IR, and CPI have both positive and negative effects on the stock market index and (2) CCI and VIX have been found to have negative effects on stocks. These results provide essential information about how investors who plan to invest in the stock index should take into consideration different macroeconomic and psychological values.

Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature as it is one of the first studies to examine the effects of factors affecting the stock index by decomposing it according to the values it takes. Also, this study provides additional information by listing the factors affecting the stock index in order of importance. These results will help investors, portfolio managers, company executives, and policy-makers understand the stock markets.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price index (CPI) at both aggregated and disaggregated levels in Vietnam. Updated data of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and bilateral exchange rate (BiER) have been utilized in this study for the comparison purposes.

Advanced time-series approaches such as a structural vector autoregressive framework, structural impulse response functions (SIRFs), and structural forecast-error variance decomposition (SFEVD) are utilized in this paper.

Empirical findings from this paper present an incomplete degree of the ERPT to the aggregated CPI. The ERPT based on the BiER is observed to have substantially larger magnitude than the NEER-based pass-through. For the disaggregated level, the degree of the ERPT varies considerably across sub-components of the CPI, with a higher magnitude of the ERPT elasticity being found from the BiER estimations. The index of housing and construction materials has the largest ERPT based on the BiER, followed by the food and foodstuffs (1.00 and 0.56, respectively). The macroeconomic and financial environments as well as an economic integration into the global market may be the main causes of a higher ERPT in Vietnam in comparison with other ASEAN countries.

The significant and incomplete pass-through of the exchange rate in Vietnam can affect firms’ and households’ budget planning, savings and profits. This finding generally implies that the cost of devaluation of the domestic currency affects the society as the whole in terms of welfare. The State Bank of Vietnam should carefully consider the overall effect of welfares when formulating and implementing strategies of currency devaluation. In addition, the Vietnamese economy becomes more sensitive to external vulnerabilities via changes of the exchange rate during an increasingly economic integration into the global market. In order to maintain inflation stability, it is vitally important to reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on the domestic prices, both aggregated and disaggregated levels, by pursuing either monetary policy credibility or inflation targeting.

Previous studies on the ERPT literature in the Asia region or for emerging countries focus mainly on the aggregated data of the CPI. Previous studies were conducted before the global financial crisis in 2008/2009. The current paper is the first of its kind to examine the pass-through from exchange rates to consumer prices in Vietnam using both aggregated and disaggregated data.

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying relationship between the exchange rate and prices known as the exchange rate pass-through.

The paper uses a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, drawing on Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986), to empirically examine and analyze the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Egypt.

The empirical results of the monthly data between 2003 and 2015 revealed that the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt is fairly substantial but incomplete and slow in the three price indices [IMP, producer price index and consumer price index (CPI)]. However, the impact is more prominent for consumer prices than for any other price index. This finding could be attributed to the fact that the CPI in Egypt is composed of a relatively large number of subsidized commodities and goods with administered prices as well as the authorities’ behavior in manipulating prices (i.e. export ban). This is expected to weaken the transmission of exchange rate shocks.

The result has interesting implications for Egypt’s ability to attain an effective inflation targeting regime.

The study contributes to the literature by assessing the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the Egyptian £ vis-à-vis the US$) on prices using an updated time series from 2003 to 2015. It addresses the limitations of the study of Nafie et al. (2004), which found no strong relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate in the Egyptian context. One of these limitations was using the CPI, as the only price index.

Many economists find it necessary to forecast inflation locally or nationally based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) value before the figures are released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no regular “official release date,” although the BLS usually targets the 20th of each month to publish the CPI for the previous month. The official annual CPI value (the mean of the twelve months) is therefore not available until January 20 of the next year. This initial figure is often revised later as additional information becomes available.

This paper evaluates the commonly used CPI and WPI proxies for the real exchange rate by comparing them to new measures constructed from a different data series of traded and nontraded goods prices. The tests provide mixed evidence in favor of using the general price indexes to construct measures of the real exchange rate.

Socioeconomic development needs quality governance to provide and protect property rights and other economic means. In this regard, the current study examines the symmetric and asymmetric effect of composite governance index, unemployment rate (UR) and consumer price index on the crime rate (CR) in Pakistan.

The current study uses time series data (1996–2020) on CR, composite governance index, UR and consumer price index. In this study, the authors first constructed a composite governance index from six governance indicators using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. After that, the short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects were estimated through linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, respectively.

The authors found short-run and long-run symmetric and asymmetric effects of governance, unemployment and consumer prices (CPI) on the CR in Pakistan. For asymmetric effects, the findings show that high-quality governance diminishes and poor governance accelerates committed crimes in Pakistan. Interestingly, the asymmetric unemployment effect suggests that criminal behavior diminishes when people find job opportunities and do not adopt criminal behavior even if people lose employment. In other words, if unemployment decreases CR will fall, and when unemployment increases, the CR may not increase. Lastly, rising product prices lead to criminal behavior, while falling prices do not help to diminish the CR in Pakistan.

The study provides the first empirical evidence of symmetric and asymmetric responses of CR toward composite governance index, UR and consumer price index.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0625

Housing market research involves observing the relationships between housing value and its indicators. However, recent literature indicates that the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic could have an impact on the forecasting properties of some of the housing indicators. This paper aims to observe the relationships between the home value index and three potential indicators to verify their forecasting properties pre- and post-COVID-19 and provide general recommendations for time series research post-pandemic.

This study features three vector autoregression (VAR) models constructed using the home value index of the USA, together with three indicators that are of interest according to recent literature: the national unemployment rate, private residential construction spending (PRCS) and the housing consumer price index (HCPI).

Unemployment, one of the prevalent indicators for housing values, was compromised as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a new indicator for housing value in the USA, PRCS, whose relationship with housing value is robust even during the COVID-19 pandemic and HCPI is a more significant indicator for housing value than the prevalently cited All-Item consumer price index (CPI).

The study adds residential construction spending into the pool of housing indicators, proves that the finding of region-specific study indicating the unbounding of housing prices from unemployment is applicable to the aggregate housing market in the USA, and improves upon such widely accepted belief that overall inflation is a key indicator for housing prices and proves that the CPI for housing is a vastly more significant indicator.