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Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention…

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Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention from investors, policy makers and researchers. This study investigates neural networks for composite property price index forecasting from ten major Chinese cities for the period of July 2005–April 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The goal is to build simple and accurate neural network models that contribute to pure technical forecasts of composite property prices. To facilitate the analysis, the authors consider different model settings across algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data spitting ratios.

Findings

The authors arrive at a pretty simple neural network with six delays and three hidden neurons, which generates rather stable performance of average relative root mean square errors across the ten cities below 1% for the training, validation and testing phases.

Originality/value

Results here could be utilized on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to help form perspectives of composite property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

Details

Property Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 March 2024

Çağın Bolat, Nuri Özdoğan, Sarp Çoban, Berkay Ergene, İsmail Cem Akgün and Ali Gökşenli

This study aims to elucidate the machining properties of low-cost expanded clay-reinforced syntactic foams by using different neural network models for the first time in the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to elucidate the machining properties of low-cost expanded clay-reinforced syntactic foams by using different neural network models for the first time in the literature. The main goal of this endeavor is to create a casting machining-neural network modeling flow-line for real-time foam manufacturing in the industry.

Design/methodology/approach

Samples were manufactured via an industry-based die-casting technology. For the slot milling tests performed with different cutting speeds, depth of cut and lubrication conditions, a 3-axis computer numerical control (CNC) machine was used and the force data were collected through a digital dynamometer. These signals were used as input parameters in neural network modelings.

Findings

Among the algorithms, the scaled-conjugated-gradient (SCG) methodology was the weakest average results, whereas the Levenberg–Marquard (LM) approach was highly successful in foreseeing the cutting forces. As for the input variables, an increase in the depth of cut entailed the cutting forces, and this circumstance was more obvious at the higher cutting speeds.

Research limitations/implications

The effect of milling parameters on the cutting forces of low-cost clay-filled metallic syntactics was examined, and the correct detection of these impacts is considerably prominent in this paper. On the other side, tool life and wear analyses can be studied in future investigations.

Practical implications

It was indicated that the milling forces of the clay-added AA7075 syntactic foams, depending on the cutting parameters, can be anticipated through artificial neural network modeling.

Social implications

It is hoped that analyzing the influence of the cutting parameters using neural network models on the slot milling forces of metallic syntactic foams (MSFs) will be notably useful for research and development (R&D) researchers and design engineers.

Originality/value

This work is the first investigation that focuses on the estimation of slot milling forces of the expanded clay-added AA7075 syntactic foams by using different artificial neural network modeling approaches.

Details

Multidiscipline Modeling in Materials and Structures, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1573-6105

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Nikita Dhankar, Srikanta Routroy and Satyendra Kumar Sharma

The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India…

Abstract

Purpose

The internal (farmer-controlled) and external (non-farmer-controlled) factors affect crop yield. However, not a single study has identified and analyzed yield predictors in India using effective predictive models. Thus, this study aims to investigate how internal and external predictors impact pearl millet yield and Stover yield.

Design/methodology/approach

Descriptive analytics and artificial neural network are used to investigate the impact of predictors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield. From descriptive analytics, 473 valid responses were collected from semi-arid zone, and the predictors were categorized into internal and external factors. Multi-layer perceptron-neural network (MLP-NN) model was used in Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25 to model them.

Findings

The MLP-NN model reveals that rainfall has the highest normalized importance, followed by irrigation frequency, crop rotation frequency, fertilizers type and temperature. The model has an acceptable goodness of fit because the training and testing methods have average root mean square errors of 0.25 and 0.28, respectively. Also, the model has R2 values of 0.863 and 0.704, respectively, for both pearl millet and Stover yield.

Research limitations/implications

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study is first of its kind related to impact of predictors of both internal and external factors on pearl millet yield and Stover yield.

Originality/value

The literature reveals that most studies have estimated crop yield using limited parameters and forecasting approaches. However, this research will examine the impact of various predictors such as internal and external of both yields. The outcomes of the study will help policymakers in developing strategies for stakeholders. The current work will improve pearl millet yield literature.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 October 2023

Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…

Abstract

Purpose

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.

Findings

The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.

Originality/value

This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2023

G. Deepa, A.J. Niranjana and A.S. Balu

This study aims at proposing a hybrid model for early cost prediction of a construction project. Early cost prediction for a construction project is the basic approach to procure…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims at proposing a hybrid model for early cost prediction of a construction project. Early cost prediction for a construction project is the basic approach to procure a project within a predefined budget. However, most of the projects routinely face the impact of cost overruns. Furthermore, conventional and manual cost computing techniques are hectic, time-consuming and error-prone. To deal with such challenges, soft computing techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are applied in construction management. Each technique has its own constraints not only in terms of efficiency but also in terms of feasibility, practicability, reliability and environmental impacts. However, appropriate combination of the techniques improves the model owing to their inherent nature.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a hybrid model by combining machine learning (ML) techniques with ANN to accurately predict the cost of pile foundations. The parameters contributing toward the cost of pile foundations were collected from five different projects in India. Out of 180 collected data entries, 176 entries were finally used after data cleaning. About 70% of the final data were used for building the model and the remaining 30% were used for validation.

Findings

The proposed model is capable of predicting the pile foundation costs with an accuracy of 97.42%.

Originality/value

Although various cost estimation techniques are available, appropriate use and combination of various ML techniques aid in improving the prediction accuracy. The proposed model will be a value addition to cost estimation of pile foundations.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 March 2023

Mina Heydari Torkamani, Yaser Shahbazi and Azita Belali Oskoyi

Historical bazaars, a huge treasure of Iranian culture, art and economy, are places for social capital development. Un-supervised management in past decades has led to the…

Abstract

Purpose

Historical bazaars, a huge treasure of Iranian culture, art and economy, are places for social capital development. Un-supervised management in past decades has led to the demolition and change of historical bazaars and negligence of its different aspects. The present research aims to investigate the resilience of historical bazaars preserving their identity and different developments.

Design/methodology/approach

The artificial neural network (ANN) has been applied to investigate the resilience of historical bazaars. This model consists of three main networks for evaluating the resilience of historical networks in terms of adaptability, variability and reactivity.

Findings

The ANN proposed to evaluate the resilience of historic bazaars based on the mentioned factors is efficient. By calculating mean squared error (MSE), the model accuracy for evaluating adaptability, variability and reactivity were obtained at 7.62e-25, 2.91e-24 and 1.51e-24. The correlation coefficient was obtained at a significance level of 99%. This indicates the considerable effectiveness of the artificial intelligence model in modeling and predicting the qualitative properties of historical bazaars resilience.

Originality/value

This paper clarifies indexes and components of resilience in terms of adaptability, variability and reactivity. Then, the ANN model is obtained with the least error and very high accuracy that predict the resilience of historical bazaars.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 April 2024

Haider Jouma, Muhamad Mansor, Muhamad Safwan Abd Rahman, Yong Jia Ying and Hazlie Mokhlis

This study aims to investigate the daily performance of the proposed microgrid (MG) that comprises photovoltaic, wind turbines and is connected to the main grid. The load demand…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the daily performance of the proposed microgrid (MG) that comprises photovoltaic, wind turbines and is connected to the main grid. The load demand is a residential area that includes 20 houses.

Design/methodology/approach

The daily operational strategy of the proposed MG allows to vend and procure utterly between the main grid and MG. The smart metre of every consumer provides the supplier with the daily consumption pattern which is amended by demand side management (DSM). The daily operational cost (DOC) CO2 emission and other measures are utilized to evaluate the system performance. A grey wolf optimizer was employed to minimize DOC including the cost of procuring energy from the main grid, the emission cost and the revenue of sold energy to the main grid.

Findings

The obtained results of winter and summer days revealed that DSM significantly improved the system performance from the economic and environmental perspectives. With DSM, DOC on winter day was −26.93 ($/kWh) and on summer day, DOC was 10.59 ($/kWh). While without considering DSM, DOC on winter day was −25.42 ($/kWh) and on summer day DOC was 14.95 ($/kWh).

Originality/value

As opposed to previous research that predominantly addressed the long-term operation, the value of the proposed research is to investigate the short-term operation (24-hour) of MG that copes with vital contingencies associated with selling and procuring energy with the main grid considering the environmental cost. Outstandingly, the proposed research engaged the consumers by smart meters to apply demand-sideDSM, while the previous studies largely focused on supply side management.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Shahin Alipour Bonab, Alireza Sadeghi and Mohammad Yazdani-Asrami

The ionization of the air surrounding the phase conductor in high-voltage transmission lines results in a phenomenon known as the Corona effect. To avoid this, Corona rings are…

Abstract

Purpose

The ionization of the air surrounding the phase conductor in high-voltage transmission lines results in a phenomenon known as the Corona effect. To avoid this, Corona rings are used to dampen the electric field imposed on the insulator. The purpose of this study is to present a fast and intelligent surrogate model for determination of the electric field imposed on the surface of a 120 kV composite insulator, in presence of the Corona ring.

Design/methodology/approach

Usually, the structural design parameters of the Corona ring are selected through an optimization procedure combined with some numerical simulations such as finite element method (FEM). These methods are slow and computationally expensive and thus, extremely reducing the speed of optimization problems. In this paper, a novel surrogate model was proposed that could calculate the maximum electric field imposed on a ceramic insulator in a 120 kV line. The surrogate model was created based on the different scenarios of height, radius and inner radius of the Corona ring, as the inputs of the model, while the maximum electric field on the body of the insulator was considered as the output.

Findings

The proposed model was based on artificial intelligence techniques that have high accuracy and low computational time. Three methods were used here to develop the AI-based surrogate model, namely, Cascade forward neural network (CFNN), support vector regression and K-nearest neighbors regression. The results indicated that the CFNN has the highest accuracy among these methods with 99.81% R-squared and only 0.045468 root mean squared error while the testing time is less than 10 ms.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, for the first time, a surrogate method is proposed for the prediction of the maximum electric field imposed on the high voltage insulators in the presence Corona ring which is faster than any conventional finite element method.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Ashu Lamba, Priti Aggarwal, Sachin Gupta and Mayank Joshipura

This paper aims to examine the impact of announcements related to 77 interventions by 46 listed Indian pharmaceutical firms during COVID-19 on the abnormal returns of the firms…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of announcements related to 77 interventions by 46 listed Indian pharmaceutical firms during COVID-19 on the abnormal returns of the firms. The study also finds the variables which explain cumulative abnormal returns (CARs).

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses standard event methodology to compute the abnormal returns of firms announcing pharmaceutical interventions in 2020 and 2021. Besides this, the multilayer perceptron technique is applied to identify the variables that influence the CARs of the sample firms.

Findings

The results show the presence of abnormal returns of 0.64% one day before the announcement, indicating information leakage. The multilayer perceptron approach identifies five variables that explain the CARs of the sample companies, which are licensing_age, licensing_size, size, commercialization_age and approval_age.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the efficient market literature by revealing how firm-specific nonfinancial disclosures affect stock prices, especially in times of crisis like pandemics. Prior research focused on determining the effect of COVID-19 variables on abnormal returns. This is the first research to use artificial neural networks to determine which firm-specific variables and pharmaceutical interventions can influence CARs.

Details

International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6123

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Vimala Balakrishnan, Aainaa Nadia Mohammed Hashim, Voon Chung Lee, Voon Hee Lee and Ying Qiu Lee

This study aims to develop a machine learning model to detect structure fire fatalities using a dataset comprising 11,341 cases from 2011 to 2019.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a machine learning model to detect structure fire fatalities using a dataset comprising 11,341 cases from 2011 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

Exploratory data analysis (EDA) was conducted prior to modelling, in which ten machine learning models were experimented with.

Findings

The main fatal structure fire risk factors were fires originating from bedrooms, living areas and the cooking/dining areas. The highest fatality rate (20.69%) was reported for fires ignited due to bedding (23.43%), despite a low fire incident rate (3.50%). Using 21 structure fire features, Random Forest (RF) yielded the best detection performance with 86% accuracy, followed by Decision Tree (DT) with bagging (accuracy = 84.7%).

Research limitations/practical implications

Limitations of the study are pertaining to data quality and grouping of categories in the data pre-processing stage, which could affect the performance of the models.

Originality/value

The study is the first of its kind to manipulate risk factors to detect fatal structure classification, particularly focussing on structure fire fatalities. Most of the previous studies examined the importance of fire risk factors and their relationship to the fire risk level.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

Keywords

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