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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 September 2019

Ngo Thai Hung

The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional correlations and spillovers of volatilities across CEE markets, namely, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional correlations and spillovers of volatilities across CEE markets, namely, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia, in the post-2007 financial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use five-dimensional GARCH-BEKK alongside with the CCC and DCC models.

Findings

The estimation results of the three models generally demonstrate that the correlations between these markets are particularly significant. Also, own-volatility spillovers are generally lower than cross-volatility spillovers for all markets.

Practical implications

These results recommend that investors should take caution when investing in the CEE equity markets as well as diversifying their portfolios so as to minimize risk.

Originality/value

Unlike the previous studies in this field, this paper is the first study using multivariate GARCH-BEKK alongside with CCC and DCC models. The study makes an outstanding contribution to the existing literature on spillover effects and conditional correlations in the CEE financial stock markets.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8494

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2023

Malihe Ashena, Hamid Laal Khezri and Ghazal Shahpari

This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials and energy price indices as proxies for global inflation, analyzing data from 1997 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to study the dynamic relationship between variables over a while.

Findings

The results demonstrated a positive relationship between commodity prices and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). Except for 1999–2000 and 2006–2008, the results of the energy price index model were very similar to those of the commodity price index. A predominant positive relationship is observed focusing on the connection between GEPU and the industrial material price index. The results of the pairwise Granger causality reveal a unidirectional relationship between the GEPU – the Global Commodity Price Index – and the GEPU – the Global Industrial Material Price Index. However, there is bidirectional causality between the GEPU – the Global Energy Price Index. In sum, changes in price indices can be driven by GEPU as a political factor indicating unfavorable economic conditions.

Originality/value

This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of global uncertainty in the global inflation process. It fills the gap in the literature by empirically investigating the dynamic movements of global uncertainty and the three most important groups of prices.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 May 2021

Ngo Thai Hung

This study examines the inter-linkages between Bitcoin prices and CEE stock markets (Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Croatia).

2150

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the inter-linkages between Bitcoin prices and CEE stock markets (Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Croatia).

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic contemporaneous nexus has been analyzed using both the multivariate DECO-GARCH model proposed by Engle and Kelly (2012) and quantile on quantile (QQ) methodology proposed by Sim and Zhou (2015). Our study is implemented using the daily data spanning from 6 September 2012 to 12 August 2019.

Findings

First, the findings show that the average return equicorrelation across Bitcoin prices and CEE stock indices are positive, even though it is found to be time-varying over the research period shown. Second, the Bitcoin-CEE stock market association has positive signs for most pairs of quantiles of both variables and represents a rather similar pattern for the cases of Poland, the Czech Republic and Croatia. However, a weaker and primarily negative connectedness is found for Hungary and Romania, respectively. Furthermore, the interconnectedness between the co-movements in the Bitcoin market and stock returns changes significantly across quantiles of both variables within each nation, indicating that the Bitcoin-stock market relationship is dependent on both the cycle of the stock market and the nature of Bitcoin price shocks.

Practical implications

The evidence documented in this study has significant implications for divergent economic agents, including global investors, risk managers and policymakers, who would benefit from a comprehensive knowledge of the Bitcoin-stock market relationship to build efficient risk-hedging models and to conduct appropriate policy reactions to information spillover effects in different time horizons.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study employing both the multivariate DECO-GARCH model and QQ methodology to shed light on the nexus between Bitcoin prices and the stock markets in CEE countries. The DECO model uses more information to compute dynamic correlations between each pair of returns than standard dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models, declining the estimation noise of the correlations. Besides, QQ approach allows us to capture some nuanced features of the Bitcoin-stock market relationship and explore the interdependence in its entirely. Therefore, the main contribution of this article to the related literature in this field is significant.

研究目的

本研究旨在探討比特幣的價格與中東歐股市(匈牙利、捷克共和國、波蘭、羅馬尼亞和克羅地亞) 之相互聯繫.

研究設計/方法/理念

研究使用恩格爾與凱利(2012)(Engle and Kelly (2012)) 提出的多變量DECO-GARCH模型及Sim 與Zhou(2015)(Sim and Zhou ( 2015)) 研製的分位數-分位數方法來分析動態同期的聯繫。我們的研究使用由2012年9月6日至2019年8月12日期間取得的每日數據來進行.

研究結果

首先、研究結果顯示、跨比特幣價格與中東歐股價指數的平均回報當量關聯是正相關的,即使在研究期間被發現是隨時間而變化的。第二、比特幣與中東歐股市之聯繫在大多數兩變數分位數對而言出現正相關跡象,而且,這聯繫在波蘭、捷克共和國及克羅地亞而言表現一個頗相似的模式。唯就匈牙利而言、這聯繫則較弱、而羅馬尼亞則主要是負聯繫。研究結果亦顯示: 比特幣市場內的聯動與股票回報間之內在關聯會在每個國家內跨兩個變數的分位數而顯著地改變,這顯示比特幣-股市關係是取決於股市的週期和比特幣價格衝擊的本質.

實際的意義

本研究所記載的證據、對不同的經濟行為者而言極具意義 (這包括國際投資者、風險管理經理和政策制定者),因他們會受惠於對比特幣-股市關係的全面認識,他們可建立有效的風險對沖模型、及在不同時間範圍對資訊溢出效應進行適當的政策反應.

研究的原創性/價值

本文為首個研究使用多變量DECO-GARCH模型和分位數-分位數(QQ)方法、來解釋比特幣價格與中東歐國家之股市的關係。這DECO模型使用比標準動態條件關係模型更多資訊,來計算每對回報間之動態關係,這能減少估測雜訊,而且,QQ方法讓我們可以取得比特幣-股市關係的一些細微特徵及全面地探索其相互依賴性。因此,本文的主要貢獻是在這學術領域內有關的文獻上.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 30 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Yadong Liu, Nathee Naktnasukanjn, Anukul Tamprasirt and Tanarat Rattanadamrongaksorn

Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related…

Abstract

Purpose

Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related, particularly since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to formulate BTC investment decisions with the aid of global financial assets.

Design/methodology/approach

This study suggests a more accurate prediction model for BTC trading by combining the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model with the artificial neural network (ANN). The DCC-GARCH model offers significant input information, including dynamic correlation and volatility, to the ANN. To analyze the data effectively, the study divides it into two periods: before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Each period is then further divided into a training set and a prediction set.

Findings

The empirical results show that BTC and gold have the highest positive correlation compared with crude oil and the USD, while BTC and the USD have a dynamic and negative correlation. More importantly, the ANN-DCC-GARCH model had a cumulative return of 318% before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and can decrease loss by 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the risk-averse can turn a loss into a profit of about 20% in 2022.

Originality/value

The empirical analysis provides technical support and decision-making reference for investors and financial institutions to make investment decisions on BTC.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 May 2022

Stefano Piserà and Helen Chiappini

The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China.

2240

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper employs the DCC, VCC, CCC as well as Newey–West estimator regression.

Findings

The findings provide empirical evidence of the risk hedging properties of ESG indexes as well as of the environmental, social and governance thematic indexes during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. The results also support the superior risk hedging properties of ESG indexes over cryptocurrency. However, the authors do not find any safe haven properties of ESG, Bitcoin, gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Practical implications

The paper offers therefore, practical policy implications for asset managers, central bankers and investors suggesting the pandemic risk-hedging opportunities of ESG investments.

Originality/value

The study represents one of the first empirical contributions examining safe-haven and hedging properties of ESG indexes compared to traditional and innovative safe haven assets, during the eruption of the COVID-19 crisis.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 28 October 2019

Angelo Corelli

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Second Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-794-3

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Mohd Ziaur Rehman and Karimullah Karimullah

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain…

Abstract

Purpose

The current study aims to examine the impact of two black swan events on the performance of six stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Dubai, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia). The two selected black swan events are the US Mortgage and credit crisis (Global Financial Crisis of 2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The performance of all the six stock markets are represented by their return and price volatility behavior, which has been measured by applying ARCH/GARCH model. The comparative analysis is done by employing mean difference models. The data is collected from Bloomberg on a daily frequency.

Findings

The response of two black swan events on the GCC stock markets has been heterogenous in nature. During the financial crisis, the impact was heavily felt on most of the stock markets in the GCC countries. It is revealed that the financial crisis had a negative significant impact on four of the six countries. Whereas during the COVID-19 crisis, it is revealed that there is no significant impact on four of the six selected stock markets. The positive significant impact is felt on two stock markets, namely, the Abu Dhabi stock market and the Saudi stock market.

Originality/value

The present investigation attempts to fill the gap in the literature on the intended topic because it is evident from the literature on the chosen subject that no study has been undertaken to evaluate and contrast the impact of the GFC crisis and COVID-19 on the GCC stock markets.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 October 2022

Emon Kalyan Chowdhury

This paper aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market volatility and uncertainty during the first and second waves.

1449

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market volatility and uncertainty during the first and second waves.

Design/methodology/approach

This study has applied event study and autoregressive integrated moving average models using daily data of confirmed and death cases of Covid-19, US S&P 500, volatility index, economic policy uncertainty and S&P 500 of Bombay Stock Exchange to attain the purpose.

Findings

It is observed that, during the first wave, the confirmed cases and the fiscal measure have a significant impact, while the vaccination initiative and the abnormal hike of confirmed cases have a significant impact on the US stock returns during the second wave. It is further observed that the volatility of Indian and US stock markets spillovers during the sample period. Moreover, a perpetual correlation between the Covid-19 and the stock market variables has been noticed.

Research limitations/implications

At present, the world is experiencing the third wave of Covid-19. This paper has considered the first and second waves.

Practical implications

It is expected that business leaders, stock market regulators and the policymakers will be highly benefitted from the research outcomes of this study.

Originality/value

This paper briefly highlights the drawbacks of existing policies and suggests appropriate guidelines to successfully implement the forthcoming initiatives to reduce the catastrophic impact of Covid-19 on the stock market volatility and uncertainty.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 September 2021

Ming Qi, Jiawei Zhang, Jing Xiao, Pei Wang, Danyang Shi and Amuji Bridget Nnenna

In this paper the interconnectedness among financial institutions and the level of systemic risks of four types of Chinese financial institutions are investigated.

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Abstract

Purpose

In this paper the interconnectedness among financial institutions and the level of systemic risks of four types of Chinese financial institutions are investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

By the means of RAS algorithm, the interconnection among financial institutions are illustrated. Different methods, including Linear Granger, Systemic impact index (SII), vulnerability index (VI), CoVaR, and MES are used to measure the systemic risk exposures across different institutions.

Findings

The results illustrate that big banks are more interconnected and hold the biggest scales of inter-bank transactions in the financial network. The institutions which have larger size tend to have more connection with others. Insurance and security companies contribute more to the systemic risk where as other institutions, such as trusts, financial companies, etc. may bring about severe loss and endanger the financial system as a whole.

Practical implications

Since other institutions with low levels of regulation may bring about higher extreme loss and suffer the whole system, it deserves more attention by regulators considering the contagion of potential risks in the financial system.

Originality/value

This study builds a valuable contribution by examine the systemic risks from the perspectives of both interconnection and tail risk measures. Furthermore; Four types financial institutions are investigated in this paper.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 51 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 January 2022

Yizhi Wang, Brian Lucey, Samuel Alexandre Vigne and Larisa Yarovaya

(1) A concern often expressed in relation to cryptocurrencies is the environmental impact associated with increasing energy consumption and mining pollution. Controversy remains…

11725

Abstract

Purpose

(1) A concern often expressed in relation to cryptocurrencies is the environmental impact associated with increasing energy consumption and mining pollution. Controversy remains regarding how environmental attention and public concerns adversely affect cryptocurrency prices. Therefore, the paper aims to introduce the index of cryptocurrency environmental attention (ICEA), which aims to capture the relative extent of media discussions surrounding the environmental impact of cryptocurrencies. (2) The impacts of cryptocurrency environmental attention on long-term macro-financial markets and economic development remain part of undeveloped research fields. Based on these factors, the paper will further examine the effects of the ICEA on financial markets or economic developments.

Design/methodology/approach

(1) The paper introduces a new index to capture cryptocurrency environmental attention in terms of the cryptocurrency response to major related events through gathering a large amount of news stories around cryptocurrency environmental concerns – i.e. >778.2 million news items from the LexisNexis News & Business database, which can be considered as Big Data – and analysing that rich dataset using variety of quantitative techniques. (2) The vector error correction model (VECM) and structural VECM (SVECM) [impulse response function (IRF), forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) and historical decomposition (HD)] are useful for characterising the dynamic relationships between ICEA and aggregate economic activities.

Findings

(1) The paper has developed a new measure of attention to sustainability concerns of cryptocurrency markets' growth, ICEA. (2) ICEA has a significantly positive relationship with the UCRY indices, volatility index (VIX), Brent crude oil (BCO) and Bitcoin. (3) ICEA has a significantly negative relationship with the global economic policy uncertainty (GlobalEPU) and global temperature uncertainty (GTU). Moreover, ICEA has a significantly positive relationship with the industrial production (IP) in the short term, whilst having a significantly negative relationship in the long term. (4) The HD of the ICEA displays higher linkages between environmental attention, Bitcoin and UCRY indices around key events that significantly change the prices of digital assets.

Research limitations/implications

The ICEA is significant in the analysis of whether cryptocurrency markets are sustainable regarding energy consumption requirements and negative contributions to climate change. Understanding of the broader impacts of cryptocurrency environmental concerns on cryptocurrency market volatility, uncertainty and environmental sustainability should be considered and developed. Moreover, the paper aims to point out future research and policy legislation directions. Notably, the paper poses the question of how cryptocurrency can be made more sustainable and environmentally friendly and how governments' cryptocurrency policies can address the cryptocurrency markets.

Practical implications

(1) The paper develops a cryptocurrency environmental attention index based on news coverage that captures the extent to which environmental sustainability concerns are discussed in conjunction with cryptocurrencies. (2) The paper empirically investigates the impacts of cryptocurrency environmental attention on other financial or economic variables [cryptocurrency uncertainty (UCRY) indices, Bitcoin, VIX, GlobalEPU, BCO, GTU index and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development IP index]. (3) The paper provides insights into making the most effective use of online databases in the development of new indices for financial research.

Social implications

Whilst blockchain technology has a number of useful implications and has great potential to transform several industries, issues of high-energy consumption and CO2 pollution regarding cryptocurrency have become some of the main areas of criticism, raising questions about the sustainability of cryptocurrencies. These results are essential for both policy-makers and for academics, since the results highlight an urgent need for research addressing the key issues, such as the growth of carbon produced in the creation of this new digital currency. The results also are important for investors concerned with the ethical implications and environmental impacts of their investment choices.

Originality/value

(1) The paper provides an efficient new proxy for cryptocurrency and robust empirical evidence for future research concerning the impact of environmental issues on cryptocurrency markets. (2) The study successfully links cryptocurrency environmental attention to the financial markets, economic developments and other volatility and uncertainty measures, which has certain novel implications for the cryptocurrency literature. (3) The empirical findings of the paper offer useful and up-to-date insights for investors, guiding policy-makers, regulators and media, enabling the ICEA to evolve into a barometer in the cryptocurrency era and play a role in, for example, environmental policy development and investment portfolio optimisation.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

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