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1 – 10 of over 1000Susovon Jana and Tarak Nath Sahu
This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the possibilities of cryptocurrencies as hedges and diversifiers in the Indian stock market before and during financial crisis due to the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.
Design/methodology/approach
Researchers have used daily data on cryptocurrencies and Indian stock prices from March 10, 2015 to August 26, 2022. The researchers have used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC)-GARCH model to determine the volatility spillover and dynamic correlation between stocks and digital currencies. Further, researchers have explored hedge ratio, portfolio weight and hedging effectiveness using the estimates of the DCC-GARCH model.
Findings
The findings indicate a negative conditional correlation between equities and cryptocurrencies before the crisis and a positive conditional correlation except for Tether during the crisis. Which implies that cryptocurrencies serve as a hedging asset in the stock market before a crisis but are not more than a diversifier during the crisis, except for Tether. Notably, Tether serves as a safe haven during times of crisis. Finally, the study suggests that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin and Ripple are the most effective diversifiers for Indian stocks during the crisis.
Originality/value
This study makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it compares the hedge and diversification roles of cryptocurrencies in the Indian stock market before and during crisis. Second, the study findings provide insights on risk hedging and can serve as a guide for investors. Third, it may help rational investors avoid underestimating risk while constructing portfolios, particularly in times of financial turmoil.
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Malihe Ashena, Hamid Laal Khezri and Ghazal Shahpari
This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between global economic uncertainty and price volatility, specifically focusing on commodity, industrial materials and energy price indices as proxies for global inflation, analyzing data from 1997 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is used to study the dynamic relationship between variables over a while.
Findings
The results demonstrated a positive relationship between commodity prices and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU). Except for 1999–2000 and 2006–2008, the results of the energy price index model were very similar to those of the commodity price index. A predominant positive relationship is observed focusing on the connection between GEPU and the industrial material price index. The results of the pairwise Granger causality reveal a unidirectional relationship between the GEPU – the Global Commodity Price Index – and the GEPU – the Global Industrial Material Price Index. However, there is bidirectional causality between the GEPU – the Global Energy Price Index. In sum, changes in price indices can be driven by GEPU as a political factor indicating unfavorable economic conditions.
Originality/value
This paper provides a deeper understanding of the role of global uncertainty in the global inflation process. It fills the gap in the literature by empirically investigating the dynamic movements of global uncertainty and the three most important groups of prices.
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Khushboo Aggarwal and V. Raveendra Saradhi
The aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan) over the period 1991–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
Unit root tests, the dynamic conditional correlation-Glosten Jagannathan and Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH), pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effects models are employed for the analysis.
Findings
The empirical results show that the DCC between each pair of sample countries is less than 0.5, indicating weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. Also, the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific stock markets is positive and low, implying low level of integration. The correlation between India and China stock markets is found to be the highest, implying significant level of integration. The main reason for it would be strong economic linkages and bilateral trade relationship between India and China. Moreover, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR), consumer price index (CPI)-inflation and money supply (MS) differentials are the major driver of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries.
Practical implications
The findings of the study have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers. It is found that the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (considered in the study) except China is low, which indicates weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. This implies that the Indian stock market provides good investment opportunities for foreign investors. Also, investors and portfolio managers can attain more diversified benefits and can minimize country risk by investing across Asia–Pacific countries. Further, knowledge about the factors that integrate the Indian stock market with the other Asia–Pacific stock markets will help policymakers frame suitable economic and financial stabilization policies.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the extant literature: first, by examining the linkages of Indian stock market with other Asia–Pacific countries; second, although previous studies confirmed the existence of linkages among the various stock markets, few researchers pay attention to the factors driving the process of stock market integration. This study provides additional evidence by examining the significant macroeconomic factors driving the process of such integration in the Asia–Pacific region considered under the study.
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Yadong Liu, Nathee Naktnasukanjn, Anukul Tamprasirt and Tanarat Rattanadamrongaksorn
Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related…
Abstract
Purpose
Bitcoin (BTC) is significantly correlated with global financial assets such as crude oil, gold and the US dollar. BTC and global financial assets have become more closely related, particularly since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose of this paper is to formulate BTC investment decisions with the aid of global financial assets.
Design/methodology/approach
This study suggests a more accurate prediction model for BTC trading by combining the dynamic conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model with the artificial neural network (ANN). The DCC-GARCH model offers significant input information, including dynamic correlation and volatility, to the ANN. To analyze the data effectively, the study divides it into two periods: before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Each period is then further divided into a training set and a prediction set.
Findings
The empirical results show that BTC and gold have the highest positive correlation compared with crude oil and the USD, while BTC and the USD have a dynamic and negative correlation. More importantly, the ANN-DCC-GARCH model had a cumulative return of 318% before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and can decrease loss by 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the risk-averse can turn a loss into a profit of about 20% in 2022.
Originality/value
The empirical analysis provides technical support and decision-making reference for investors and financial institutions to make investment decisions on BTC.
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Stefano Piserà and Helen Chiappini
The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employs the DCC, VCC, CCC as well as Newey–West estimator regression.
Findings
The findings provide empirical evidence of the risk hedging properties of ESG indexes as well as of the environmental, social and governance thematic indexes during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. The results also support the superior risk hedging properties of ESG indexes over cryptocurrency. However, the authors do not find any safe haven properties of ESG, Bitcoin, gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Practical implications
The paper offers therefore, practical policy implications for asset managers, central bankers and investors suggesting the pandemic risk-hedging opportunities of ESG investments.
Originality/value
The study represents one of the first empirical contributions examining safe-haven and hedging properties of ESG indexes compared to traditional and innovative safe haven assets, during the eruption of the COVID-19 crisis.
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Gaytri Malhotra, Miklesh Prasad Yadav, Priyanka Tandon and Neena Sinha
This study unravels an attempt to investigate the dynamic connectedness of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with 10 financial markets of wheat importing counties during the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study unravels an attempt to investigate the dynamic connectedness of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with 10 financial markets of wheat importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.
Design/methodology/approach
This study took the daily prices of Wheat FOB Black Sea Index (Russia) along with stock indices of 10 major wheat-importing nations of Russia and Ukraine. The time frame for this study ranges from February 24, 2022 to July 31, 2022. This time frame was selected since it fully examines all of the effects of the crisis. The conditional correlations and volatility spillovers of these indices are predicted using the DCC-GARCH model, Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018) models.
Findings
It is found that there is dynamic linkage of agri-commodity of with stock markets of Iraq, Pakistan and Tanzania in short run while stock markets of Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil and Iraq are spilled by agri-commodity in long run. In addition, it documents that there is large spillover in short run than medium and long run comparatively. This signifies that investors have more diversification opportunity in short run then long run contemplating to invest in these markets.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ understanding this is the first study to undertake the dynamic linkage of agri-commodity (wheat) of Russia with financial market of select importing counties during the Russia–Ukraine invasion.
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To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…
Abstract
Purpose
To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.
Findings
The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.
Research limitations/implications
It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.
Originality/value
The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.
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Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.
Findings
The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.
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Masudul Hasan Adil and Salman Haider
The present study empirically examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and policy uncertainty on stock prices in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
The present study empirically examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and policy uncertainty on stock prices in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
To this end, the authors use the daily data by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which tests the short- and long-run relationship between stock price and its covariates.
Findings
The study finds that increased uncertainty has adverse short- and long-run effects on stock prices, while the vaccine index has favorable effects on stock market recovery.
Practical implications
From investors' perspectives, volatility in the Indian stock market has negative repercussions. Therefore, to protect investors' sentiments, policymakers should be concerned about the uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and similar other uncertainty prevailing in the financial markets.
Originality/value
This study used the news-based COVID-19 index and vaccine index to measure recent pandemic-induced uncertainty. The result carries some policy implications for an emerging economy like India.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2023-0244
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Amira Said and Chokri Ouerfelli
This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.
Design/methodology/approach
DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.
Findings
The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.
Originality/value
Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.
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