Search results

This paper aims to propose a new method to derive custom dynamic cyber risk metrics based on the well-known Goal, Question, Metric (GQM) approach. A framework that complements it and makes it much easier to use has been proposed too. Both, the method and the framework, have been validated within two challenging application domains: continuous risk assessment within a smart farm and risk-based adaptive security to reconfigure a Web application firewall.

The authors have identified a problem and provided motivation. They have developed their theory and engineered a new method and a framework to complement it. They have demonstrated the proposed method and framework work, validating them in two real use cases.

The GQM method, often applied within the software quality field, is a good basis for proposing a method to define new tailored cyber risk metrics that meet the requirements of current application domains. A comprehensive framework that formalises possible goals and questions translated to potential measurements can greatly facilitate the use of this method.

The proposed method enables the application of the GQM approach to cyber risk measurement. The proposed framework allows new cyber risk metrics to be inferred by choosing between suggested goals and questions and measuring the relevant elements of probability and impact. The authors’ approach demonstrates to be generic and flexible enough to allow very different organisations with heterogeneous requirements to derive tailored metrics useful for their particular risk management processes.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the adjustment of government redistributive policies in Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries following changes in income inequality over the period 1980–2021.

The authors first modelled the time-varying dynamics between income inequality and redistribution and then used a non-linear framework to test for the existence of asymmetries and cointegration in their long-run relationship. The authors used two complementary measures of inequality – the share of total income accruing to top percentile income holders and the ratio of the share of total income accruing to top decile income holders divided by that accumulated by the bottom 50% – and computed redistribution as the difference between the two inequality indicators before and after taxes and transfers.

The authors found that the sign of the relationship between income inequality and redistribution is mostly positive and time-varying. Overall, the authors also found evidence that the impact of increases in inequality on redistributive measures is higher than that of decreases. Finally, the authors obtained a significant long-run relationship between both variables in all countries except Denmark and Spain. These results hold for both Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to account for the potential existence of non-linearities and to examine the asymmetries in the adjustment of redistributive policies to increases in income inequality using alternative income inequality metrics.

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the use of stainless steel (SS) in reinforced concrete (RC) structures due to its distinctive corrosion resistance and excellent mechanical properties. To ensure effective synergy between SS and concrete, it is necessary to develop a time-saving approach to accurately determine the ultimate bond strength τ_u between the two materials in RC structures.

Three robust machine learning (ML) models, including support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), are employed to predict τ_u between ribbed SS and concrete. Model hyperparameters are fine-tuned using Bayesian optimization (BO) with 10-fold cross-validation. The interpretable techniques including partial dependence plots (PDPs) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) are also utilized to figure out the relationship between input features and output for the best model.

Among the three ML models, BO-XGBoost exhibits the strongest generalization and highest accuracy in estimating τ_u. According to SHAP value-based feature importance, compressive strength of concrete f_c emerges as the most prominent feature, followed by concrete cover thickness c, while the embedment length to diameter ratio l/d, and the diameter d for SS are deemed less important features. Properly increasing c and f_c can enhance τ_u between ribbed SS and concrete.

An online graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed based on BO-XGBoost to estimate τ_u. This tool can be utilized in structural design of RC structures with ribbed SS as reinforcement.

Software defect prediction (SDP) is a critical aspect of software quality assurance, aiming to identify and manage potential defects in software systems. In this paper, we have proposed a novel hybrid approach that combines Gray Wolf Optimization with Feature Selection (GWOFS) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) for SDP. The GWOFS-MLP hybrid model is designed to optimize feature selection, ultimately enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of SDP. Gray Wolf Optimization, inspired by the social hierarchy and hunting behavior of gray wolves, is employed to select a subset of relevant features from an extensive pool of potential predictors. This study investigates the key challenges that traditional SDP approaches encounter and proposes promising solutions to overcome time complexity and the curse of the dimensionality reduction problem.

The integration of GWOFS and MLP results in a robust hybrid model that can adapt to diverse software datasets. This feature selection process harnesses the cooperative hunting behavior of wolves, allowing for the exploration of critical feature combinations. The selected features are then fed into an MLP, a powerful artificial neural network (ANN) known for its capability to learn intricate patterns within software metrics. MLP serves as the predictive engine, utilizing the curated feature set to model and classify software defects accurately.

The performance evaluation of the GWOFS-MLP hybrid model on a real-world software defect dataset demonstrates its effectiveness. The model achieves a remarkable training accuracy of 97.69% and a testing accuracy of 97.99%. Additionally, the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC) score of 0.89 highlights the model’s ability to discriminate between defective and defect-free software components.

Experimental implementations using machine learning-based techniques with feature reduction are conducted to validate the proposed solutions. The goal is to enhance SDP’s accuracy, relevance and efficiency, ultimately improving software quality assurance processes. The confusion matrix further illustrates the model’s performance, with only a small number of false positives and false negatives.

Given the critical role of user-generated content (UGC) in e-commerce, exploring various aspects of UGC can aid in understanding user purchase intention and commodity recommendation. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of UGC on purchase decisions and proposes new recommendation models based on sentiment analysis, which are verified in Douban, one of the most popular UGC websites in China.

After verifying the relationship between various factors and product sales, this study proposes two models, collaborative filtering recommendation model based on sentiment (SCF) and hidden factors topics recommendation model based on sentiment (SHFT), by combining traditional collaborative filtering model (CF) and hidden factors topics model (HFT) with sentiment analysis.

The results indicate that sentiment significantly influences purchase intention. Furthermore, the proposed sentiment-based recommendation models outperform traditional CF and HFT in terms of mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Moreover, the two models yield different outcomes for various product categories, providing actionable insights for organizers to implement more precise recommendation strategies.

The findings of this study advocate the incorporation of UGC sentimental factors into websites to heighten recommendation accuracy. Additionally, different recommendation strategies can be employed for different products types.

This study introduces a novel perspective to the recommendation algorithm field. It not only validates the impact of UGC sentiment on purchase intention but also evaluates the proposed models with real-world data. The study provides valuable insights for managerial decision-making aimed at enhancing recommendation systems.

The purpose of the study is to analyze and measure the impact of disruption in demand which causes the bullwhip effect. The bullwhip effect impacts the performance of firm. Just like everything else, covid has had an impact on the disruption of supply chain too leading to the need of measuring the bullwhip effect of select Indian sectors. The comparison on bullwhip effect is drawn in pre- and during covid era in major sectors. The study helps to understand, analyze and measure the impact of covid and its challenges to supply chain.

The empirical study is carried out on five major select Indian sectors which have the largest market capitalization in Indian economy, namely, FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), automobile, utility, consumer durable and IT (information technology). The disruption in the supply chain is measured in terms of bullwhip effect. The novel metric ratio of bullwhip effect is computed which is based on demand–supply mismatch and analyzed based on 10 years of observations. The data is analyzed twice, first from 2011 to 2019 (pre-covid era) and second from 2019 to 2021 (during covid era). Each time, Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) sectoral indices are used to compute the bullwhip ratio, and empirical data is collected using Prowess. The firms listed in BSE represent most of the sector. Such panel data helps us to analyze inter- and intraindustry bullwhip effect. The changes in the bullwhip effect for various BSE listed firms are analyzed pre- and during covid era. These changes are specifically studied at the manufacturer end of the supply chain. Later regression analysis is performed to study the changes required in production based on the demand. The various strategies that cause or mitigate the impact of covid in intraindustry can be derived from the study. The disruption in production is analyzed based on the disruption in demand and profit before interest and tax (PBIT).

In pre-covid era, the percentage of demand disruption was low in select sectors but not exactly zero. Covid caused the disruptions in supply chain across the globe which resulted in bullwhip effect in Indian sectors too. Yet some of the sectors were able to cope better with the situation as compared to others. In the present study, same is analyzed statistically, and results are derived for practical significance.

The empirical data is having the observations of past 10 years to analyze the pattern of demand disruption in the firms and hence the sectors. The impact of covid is studied on performance, which is analyzed in terms of PBIT. The impact of other factors (political, social, marketing policies, etc.) that may cause disruption in the supply chain of a firm is not considered in the study.

Study is unique, as it measures disruption and provides a peerless way to study the inter- and intrasectors. To analyze the impact of bullwhip effect on sector performance, it is very much required to first measure the bullwhip; this measure of bullwhip as a ratio of the slopes of demand and supply is a novel approach. The study emphasizes that the impact of covid is not the same among the firms, and hence among the sectors. Also, it is found that the impact of such adversities can be mitigated, and performance of firm can remain intact in turbulent times too.

Overcrowding continues to afflict emergency departments (EDs), and its attendant consequences are becoming increasingly severe. The burden of the COVID-19 pandemic is further escalating the situation worldwide. One of the most critical questions is how to adequately quantify what constitutes overcrowding and determine implications for operations management in improving service efficiency. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned.

The authors propose the time and class complexity measures for ED service systems, taking into account important patient-level and system characteristics. Using an extensive data set from a Canadian ED, the authors investigate the performance of complexity-based measures in predicting service delays.

The authors find that the complexity measure is potentially more important than some well-known crowding metrics. In particular, EDs can improve service efficiency by managing the level of complexity within a desirable interval. Furthermore, complexity exposes how the interplay between demand-side behavioral changes and supply-side responses affects operational performance. Moreover, the results suggest that arrival patterns—the number of patients of each class arriving per time and times between events (arrivals and service completions)—increase the risk of service delays more than the demand volume.

This paper is the first to provide an extensive investigation into the application of the complexity-based measure for ED crowding. The study demonstrates potential values to be gained in ED service systems if complexity measure is incorporated into their operations management decisions.

This paper is motivated by the need to assess the risk profiles associated with the substantial number of items within military supply chains. The scale of supply chain management processes creates difficulties in both the complexity of the analysis and in performing risk assessments that are based on the manual (human analyst) assessment methods. Thus, analysts require methods that can be automated and that can incorporate on-going operational data on a regular basis.

The approach taken to address the identification of supply chain risk within an operational setting is based on aspects of multiobjective decision analysis (MODA). The approach constructs a risk and importance index for supply chain elements based on operational data. These indices are commensurate in value, leading to interpretable measures for decision-making.

Risk and importance indices were developed for the analysis of items within an example supply chain. Using the data on items, individual MODA models were formed and demonstrated using a prototype tool.

To better prepare risk mitigation strategies, analysts require the ability to identify potential sources of risk, especially in times of disruption such as natural disasters.

This study aims to investigate the influence of disclosing environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors on financial performance, taking into account the moderating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A sample of the top 100 non-financial firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, for the years 2019–2022, has been considered. Suitable panel regression models have been used to assess the impact of non-financial disclosure on accounting and market measures of firm performance. In addition, a panel data moderating effect model is used to assess the moderating impact.

The outcomes of the study partially favour the value-creation role of ESG disclosure. Specifically, the disclosure of already established ESG metrics, particularly social and governance aspects, positively impacts the market performance while environmental transparency negatively impacts the accounting performance. Of the three ESG components, only extended governance disclosure adds to market value. Results of the moderation effect reveal a significant impact of the pandemic on the ESG disclosure–financial performance relation. However, a more pronounced effect before the pandemic is observed. The results are robust to endogeneity.

This study sheds light on the financial consequences of ESG disclosure within the context of an emerging nation. This is done by using a novel holistic ESG reporting framework to obtain more accurate results. Furthermore, the study distinguishes itself by examining the long-term moderating influence of the unexpected COVID-19 crisis on the ESG disclosure–financial performance relation.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of equal weights estimation (sumscores) and the application of the composite equivalence index (CEI) vis-à-vis differentiated indicator weights produced by partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).

The authors rely on prior literature as well as empirical illustrations and a simulation study to assess the efficacy of equal weights estimation and the CEI.

The results show that the CEI lacks discriminatory power, and its use can lead to major differences in structural model estimates, conceals measurement model issues and almost always leads to inferior out-of-sample predictive accuracy compared to differentiated weights produced by PLS-SEM.

In light of its manifold conceptual and empirical limitations, the authors advise against the use of the CEI. Its adoption and the routine use of equal weights estimation could adversely affect the validity of measurement and structural model results and understate structural model predictive accuracy. Although this study shows that the CEI is an unsuitable metric to decide between equal weights and differentiated weights, it does not propose another means for such a comparison.

The results suggest that researchers and practitioners should prefer differentiated indicator weights such as those produced by PLS-SEM over equal weights.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to provide a comprehensive assessment of the CEI’s usefulness. The results provide guidance for researchers considering using equal indicator weights instead of PLS-SEM-based weighted indicators.