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It is of paramount importance to ensure safe and fast evacuation routes in cities in case of natural disasters, environmental accidents or acts of terrorism. The same applies to large-scale events such as concerts, sport events and religious pilgrimages as airports and to traffic hubs such as airports and train stations. The prediction of pedestrian is notoriously difficult because it varies depending on circumstances (age group, cultural characteristics, etc.). In this study, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation technique, which uses the updated observation data to improve the accuracy of the simulation, was applied to improve the accuracy of numerical simulations of pedestrian flow.

The EnKF, one of the data assimilation techniques, was applied to the in-house numerical simulation code for pedestrian flow. Two cases were studied in this study. One was the simplified one-directional experimental pedestrian flow. The other was the real pedestrian flow at the Kaaba in Mecca. First, numerical simulations were conducted using the empirical input parameter sets. Then, using the observation data, the EnKF estimated the appropriate input parameter sets. Finally, the numerical simulations using the estimated parameter sets were conducted.

The EnKF worked on the numerical simulations of pedestrian flow very effectively. In both cases: simplified experiment and real pedestrian flow, the EnKF estimated the proper input parameter sets which greatly improved the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The authors believe that the technique such as EnKF could also be used effectively in other fields of computational engineering where simulations and data have to be merged.

This technique can be used to improve both design and operational implementations of pedestrian and crowd dynamics predictions. It should be of high interest to command and control centers for large crowd events such as concerts, airports, train stations and pilgrimage centers.

To the authors’ knowledge, the data assimilation technique has not been applied to a numerical simulation of pedestrian flow, especially to the real pedestrian flow handling millions pedestrian such as the Mataf at the Kaaba. This study validated the capability and the usefulness of the data assimilation technique to numerical simulations for pedestrian flow.

The purpose of this paper is to collect data from humans as they generate insights from the visualised results of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) scientific simulation. The authors hypothesise the behaviour of their insight errors (IEs) and proceed to quantify the IEs provided by the crowd participants. They then use the insight framework to model the behaviours of the errors. Using the crowd responses and models from the framework, they test the hypotheses and use the results to validate the framework for the speedup of CFD applications.

The authors use a randomised between-subjects experiment with blocking. CFD grid resolution is the independent variable while IE is the dependent variable. The experiment has one treatment factor with five levels. In case varying timestamps has an effect on insight variance levels, the authors block the responses by timestep. In total, 150 participants are randomly assigned to one of five groups and also randomly assigned to one of five blocks within a treatment. Participants are asked to complete a benchmark and open-ended task.

The authors find that the variances of insight and perception errors have a U-shaped relationship with grid resolution, that similar to the previously studied visualisation applications, the IE framework is valid for insights generated from CFD results and grid resolution can be used to predict the variance of IE resulting from observing CFD post-processing results.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no other work has measured IE variance to present it to simulation users so that they can use it as a feedback metric for selecting the ideal grid resolution when using grid resolution to speedup CFD simulation.

Certain elements of Hayek’s work are prominent precursors to the modern field of complex adaptive systems, including his ideas on spontaneous order, his focus on market processes, his contrast between designing and gardening, and his own framing of complex systems. Conceptually, he was well ahead of his time, prescient in his formulation of novel ways to think about economies and societies. Technically, the fact that he did not mathematically formalize most of the notions he developed makes his insights hard to incorporate unambiguously into models. However, because so much of his work is divorced from the simplistic models proffered by early mathematical economics, it stands as fertile ground for complex systems researchers today. I suggest that Austrian economists can create a progressive research program by building models of these Hayekian ideas, and thereby gain traction within the economics profession. Instead of mathematical models the suite of techniques and tools known as agent-based computing seems particularly well-suited to addressing traditional Austrian topics like money, business cycles, coordination, market processes, and so on, while staying faithful to the methodological individualism and bottom-up perspective that underpin the entire school of thought.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a first-principles model for the simulation of pedestrian flows and crowd dynamics capable of computing the movement of a million pedestrians in real-time in order to assess the potential safety hazards and operational performance at events where many individuals are gathered. Examples of such situations are sport and music events, cinemas and theatres, museums, conference centres, places of pilgrimage and worship, street demonstrations, emergency evacuation during natural disasters.

The model is based on a series of forces, such as: will forces (the desire to reach a place at a certain time), pedestrian collision avoidance forces, obstacle/wall avoidance forces; pedestrian contact forces, and obstacle/wall contact forces. In order to allow for general geometries a so-called background triangulation is used to carry all geographic information. At any given time the location of any given pedestrian is updated on this mesh. The model has been validated qualitatively and quantitavely on repeated occasions. The code has been ported to shared and distributed memory parallel machines.

The results obtained show that the stated aim of computing the movement of a million pedestrians in real-time has been achieved. This is an important milestone, as it enables faster-than-real-time simulations of large crowds (stadiums, airports, train and bus stations, concerts) as well as evacuation simulations for whole cities.

All models are wrong, but some are useful. The same applies to any modelling of pedestrians. Pedestrians are not machines, so stochastic runs will be required in the future in order to obtain statistically relevant ensembles.

This opens the way to link real-time data gathering of crowds (i.e. via cameras) with predictive calculations done faster than real-time, so that security personnel can be alerted to potential future problems during large-scale events.

This will allow much better predictions for large-scale events, improving security and comfort.

This is the first time such speeds have been achieved for a micro-modelling code for pedestrians.

Ventilation of indoor spaces is required for the delivery of fresh air rich in oxygen and the removal of carbon dioxide, pollutants and other hazardous substances. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the topic of ventilating crowded indoors to the front line of health concerns. This study developed a new biologically inspired concept of biomimetic active ventilation (BAV) for interior environments that mimics the mechanism of human lung ventilation, where internal air is continuously refreshed with the external environment. The purpose of this study is to provide a detailed proof-of-concept of the new BAV paradigm using computational models.

This study developed computational fluid dynamic models of unoccupied rooms with two window openings on one wall and two BAV modules that periodically translate perpendicular to or rotate about the window openings. This study also developed a time-evolving spatial ventilation efficiency metric for exploring the accumulated refreshment of the interior space. The authors conducted two-dimensional (2D) simulations of various BAV configurations to determine the trends in how the working parameters affect the ventilation and to generate initial estimates for the more comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) model.

Simulations of 2D and 3D models of BAV for modules of different shapes and working parameters demonstrated air movements in most of the room with good air exchange between the indoor and outdoor air. This new BAV concept seems to be very efficient and should be further developed.

The concept of ventilating interior spaces with periodically moving rigid modules with respect to the window openings is a new BAV paradigm that mimics human respiration. The computational results demonstrated that this new paradigm for interior ventilation is efficient while air velocities are within comfortable limits.

One crucial but sometimes overlooked fact regarding the difference between observation in the cross-section and observation over time must be stated before proceeding further. Tempting though it is to draw conclusions about the dynamics of a process from cross-sectional observations taken as a snapshot of that process, it is a fallacious practice except under a very precise condition that is highly unlikely to obtain in processes of interest to the social scientist. That condition is known as ergodicity.

Media has always been used as a key manipulator of public agendas, political beliefs and individuals’ attitudes. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of three adaptive media strategies on the pattern and dynamics of potential crowds.

An agent-based approach is used to simulate the three adaptive media strategies on the pattern and dynamics of potential crowds. During the experiments, the media broadcast is intensified to gather momentum for crowd movements or is lessened to maintain the budget.

The results show that a slight change in the media management strategy could lead to a radical different impact on the crowd dynamics. The results also show that a quite smart media strategy could outperform a strategy with an unlimited budget. Finally, the structure of the society shows a significant influence on the crowd dynamics than it could be inferred.

The model presents an explanatory toolkit for the crowd complexity. The results provide deep insights into the crowd formation and a basis for understanding the influence of media and the impact of its strategies on the crowd dynamics.

The purpose of the study is to optimise the cross-sectional shape of passively cooled horizontally mounted pin-fin heat sink for higher cooling performance and lower material usage.

Multi-objective shape optimisation technique is used to design the heat sink fins. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) is combined with a geometric module to develop the shape optimiser. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to evaluate the design objectives. Separate optimisations are carried out to design the shape of bottom row fins and middle row fins of a pin-fin heat sink. Finally, a computational validation was conducted by generating a three-dimensional pin-fin heat sink using optimised fin cross sections and comparing its performance against the circular pin-fin heat sink with the same inter-fin spacing value.

Heat sink with optimised fin cross sections has 1.6% higher cooling effectiveness than circular pin-fin heat sink of same material volume, and has 10.3% higher cooling effectiveness than the pin-fin heat sink of same characteristics fin dimension. The special geometric features of optimised fins that resulted in superior performance are highlighted. Further, Pareto-optimal fronts for this multi-objective optimisation problem are obtained for different fin design scenarios.

For the first time, passively cooled heat sink’s cross-sectional shapes are optimised for different spatial arrangements, using NSGA-II-based shape optimiser, which makes use of CFD solver to evaluate the design objectives. The optimised, high-performance shapes will find direct application to cool power electronic equipment.