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1 – 10 of 18Ageliki Anagnostou, Vyron Bourelias and Paweł Gajewski
The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.
Findings
We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.
Originality/value
Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.
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Pushkar Pushp and Faisal Ahmed
The discourse on global value chains (GVC) is undergoing a transformation in terms of its conceptualisation, theorisation and pragmatic applications. Today, the production systems…
Abstract
Purpose
The discourse on global value chains (GVC) is undergoing a transformation in terms of its conceptualisation, theorisation and pragmatic applications. Today, the production systems have become more complex as global economic order continues to witness marked geo-economic manoeuvring. Thus, the direction of discourse on GVC ought to move from mere theoretical propositions toward becoming more evidence based. There have been recent studies that have used the governance and upgrading propositions by Gary Gereffi and others to seek quantitative evidence. This study aims to decipher the quantitative discourse on GVC and to set the emerging and future research agenda.
Design/methodology/approach
Through a systematic literature review, the authors first analyse the quantitative studies on GVC carried out during the last two decades. The authors then outline a future research agenda and examine a few relevant modelling techniques that could potentially be used to solicit newer evidence in GVC research.
Findings
The authors categorise the quantitative discourse on GVC into three crucial themes, namely, GVC framework, GVC participation and position, environmental aspects and regionalisation in GVC. The most commonly used quantitative techniques are gravity model, panel data estimation, structural decomposition analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the GVC discourse in two ways. Firstly, the authors argue that the theoretical frameworks within the GVC discourse should be complemented by evidence-based quantitative studies. Secondly, the authors suggest potential modelling techniques that can be used on the emerging and future research agenda.
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Harold Glenn A. Valera, Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan, Sumathi Chakravarthy, Sindhu Bharathi, Jean Balié and Valerien Olivier Pede
This paper investigates the effects of the total abolition of all forms of agricultural subsidies to producers and border tariffs on the prices of staple cereals.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the effects of the total abolition of all forms of agricultural subsidies to producers and border tariffs on the prices of staple cereals.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the GTAP global economy-wide model and focus on 27 countries and 8 regions. The GTAP database that is used contains information on budgetary transfers to producers and market price support such as domestic price support, tariffs, export subsidies, quotas on exports or imports and other border measures.
Findings
The removal of subsidies is estimated to significantly increase the prices of wheat and other cereal grains in Japan, paddy rice in Malaysia and Indonesia, processed rice in Malaysia and Indonesia and wheat in Brazil and India. When border tariffs are removed, cereal prices are projected to fall in several countries, but the decline is more pronounced for wheat in Kenya and Japan, other cereal grains in South Korea and all staples in Nepal.
Research limitations/implications
The alternative scenarios on the removal of agricultural subsidies in all agricultural sectors and the elimination of border tariffs are purely speculative as the analysis ignores important political economy considerations of agricultural and food policy reforms.
Practical implications
The findings from this study point to the importance of implementing additional policy measures to mitigate the possible negative effect of repurposing the support to agriculture and ensure the food security and welfare of those categories of buyers who heavily depend on the price of staple food for their livelihoods.
Social implications
This study’s findings confirm that the elimination of agricultural subsidies would impact global food security directly by making staple food less affordable to the poorest and indirectly by decreasing the available household budget for other presumably more nutritious food groups. Consequently, it is expected that these price increases could make segments of the world population poorer, particularly the net-food buyers due to a decline in their real income.
Originality/value
The authors assess the impact of removing the subsidies on the economy in a comprehensive way, particularly given the recent policy focus on net zero emissions and Sustainable Development Goals that include healthy foods. The authors also consider the counter effects of tariff reduction on this, which is price-reducing.
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Alphonse Singbo and Jourdain Chambord Lokossou
The farm sector is crucial for rural poverty alleviation, alongside the non-farm sector, which contributes to mitigating risks associated with crop failures. This paper…
Abstract
Purpose
The farm sector is crucial for rural poverty alleviation, alongside the non-farm sector, which contributes to mitigating risks associated with crop failures. This paper investigates the effects of public policies on productive employment within both the farm and non-farm sectors in sub-Saharan Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
A meta-analysis is conducted exclusively on the results of the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP)-funded studies under the Policy Analysis on Growth and Employment (PAGE II) initiative. Selected studies focused on the impact of public policies on productive employment in rural farm and non-farm sectors, encompassing a total of nine sub-Saharan Africa countries in: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Lesotho, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa.
Findings
The results indicate that public investments in rural areas and public policies that facilitate access to productive resources are likely to enhance productive employment. The overall effect size is positive and significant, ranging from 2% to 10% increases in productive employment. Sources of variation include the sector of activity and the policy instrument. In addition, the policy effects are gender-sensitive and seem more consistent in the non-farm sector.
Research limitations/implications
Although the selected working papers addressed several aspects of productive employment, other aspects warrant further investigation. Policies involving restrictions or regulations have received little attention in the impact analysis. Researches to fill this gap would be important. Another suggestion for further research is the analysis of the relative importance of non-farm employment in rural areas in developing countries. It is always assumed that rural households depend heavily on agriculture for their subsistence.
Originality/value
The contribution of the paper lies in the comparative analysis of numerous public policies implemented in nine distinct countries. By consolidating data from fourteen 14 different experiences into a single study, the paper offers valuable insights on factors that determine policy effectiveness and contribute to understanding what worked for whom and why.
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Nida Rahman and Krishan Sharma
Regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) is understood as the world's largest trading bloc given its contribution to the world output (30%). The mega trade bloc brings…
Abstract
Purpose
Regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) is understood as the world's largest trading bloc given its contribution to the world output (30%). The mega trade bloc brings together 15 countries of East Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers in goods and services trade. The study suggests the importance of sector specific reforms for Malaysia to strengthen domestic capability.
Design/methodology/approach
The analytical framework constructs upon the partial equilibrium analysis and uses WITS SMART simulations.
Findings
The study finds that Malaysia's elimination of tariffs under the RCEP will cause a surge in imports from developed member countries of RCEP like Australia, South Korea and Japan. The study also finds a trade diversion in countries such as India. The empirical results establishes that RCEP would further strengthen intra-ASEAN trade.
Research limitations/implications
The study explores select sectors of the manufacturing industry in Malaysia.
Practical implications
The implementation of RCEP would impact the manufacturing sector immensely, especially in sectors like electrical machinery and equipment and inorganic chemicals, which are two of the major trading commodities of the Malaysian economy.
Social implications
Any trade agreement has a larger impact on the society. It may raise income, boost the consumer preferences and create or erode consumer welfare. The study reports the consumer welfare effect of the implementation of RCEP in Malaysia.
Originality/value
The study is the first attempt to do a partial equilibrium analysis for the electrical machinery and equipment sector and inorganic chemicals sector of Malaysia using both aggregated and disaggregated data at HS two-digit and HS six-digit level.
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Ruggero Sainaghi and Aurelio G. Mauri
This study explores the short- and medium-term effects generated by the Milan Expo 2015, adopting a microeconomic approach. The focus is on the hospitality sector. The study…
Abstract
This study explores the short- and medium-term effects generated by the Milan Expo 2015, adopting a microeconomic approach. The focus is on the hospitality sector. The study embraces nine years, identifying three intervals: pre- (2011–2014), during- (2015) and post-Expo (2016–2019). The time span does not include the Covid-19 pandemic period, which started in 2020. The dataset is composed of daily data. Three research questions are explored. First, an overall evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects is performed. Second, the seasonal effects are measured. Finally, the impacts for different classes of hotels are considered. The findings are supportive for the legacy generated by the Milan Expo. The results confirm the ability of the Milan Expo to strengthen the leisure segment. Positive results have been observed for all classes of hotels, relevantly augmenting the real revenue per available room (RevPAR). Luxury hotels achieved the highest increase of RevPAR, while economy class hotels registered the highest percentage of increase of RevPAR.
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Gour Gobinda Goswami, Farhan Khan, Kazi Labiba, Farhanaj Achol, Tapas Kumar Saha and Aunanna Zulfikar
The scope of this work is to explore whether Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would be beneficial to Bangladesh, given Bangladesh's strong ties with India and…
Abstract
Purpose
The scope of this work is to explore whether Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would be beneficial to Bangladesh, given Bangladesh's strong ties with India and the west.
Design/methodology/approach
Using extended gravity equation and data from Head and Mayer (2021) and the Direction of Trade Statistic (IMF, 2021) for Bangladesh with its applicable partner countries from 1972 till 2019, the authors attempted to examine the potential impact of joining RCEP while keeping its relationship with South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and other existing economic integration schemes intact.
Findings
Using traditional pooled ordinary least squares, two-stage least square and generalized method of moment techniques, it has been revealed that conventional partners in the South led by India are still beneficial to Bangladeshs trading line. Joining RCEP provides ample avenues for trade expansion without replacing the positive effects of SAARC.
Practical implications
Traditional partners from European, American and South Asian trading opportunities are still paying enough dividends to Bangladesh. RCEP is providing a trade-enhancing chance for Bangladesh in the eastern direction. This paper provides a policy suggestion to look east policy of government. A total overhaul of her tax structure through minimizing excessive reliance on import tariff revenue is desired to facilitate her to join RCEP in the future because most of its prospective RCEP partners are import partners.
Originality/value
This is the first and the only study which explores the feasibility of Bangladesh to join the RCEP by using the most recently updated gravity data in a panel framework.
Highlights
Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.
As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.
This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.
The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.
Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.
As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.
This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.
The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.
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Keywords
Climate change has a direct impact on companies. Therefore, the scenario analysis is used to provide companies and stakeholders in this specific sector with forward-looking…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change has a direct impact on companies. Therefore, the scenario analysis is used to provide companies and stakeholders in this specific sector with forward-looking measures and narratives of the world's future state. This work aims to provide an independent, wide and rigorous literature review on the topics of scenario analysis and climate change, analyzing a large set of referred papers included in economic journals on the Web of Science Clarivate Analytics data source. This review, by means of a mixed approach, can help address new policy strategies and business models.
Design/methodology/approach
The work employs 416 abstracts and relative titles in the field of economics, employing data mining for qualitative variables and performing descriptive statistics and lexicometric measures, similarity analysis and clustering with Reinert's hierarchical method in order to extract knowledge. Furthermore, qualitative content analysis allows for the return of a comprehensive and complete universe of meaning, as well as the analysis of co-occurences.
Findings
Content analysis reveals three main classification clusters and four unknown patterns: model area, risks, emissions and energy and carbon pricing, indicating research directions and limitations through an overview with an extensive reference bibliography. In the research, the prevalent use of quantitative instruments and their limitations emerge, while qualitative instruments are residual for climate change assessment; they also highlight the centrality of transition risk over adaptation measures and the combination of different types of instruments with reference to carbon pricing.
Originality/value
Scenario analysis is a relatively new topic in economics and finance research, and it is under-investigated by the academy. The analysis combines quantitative and qualitative research using text analytics.
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Sheunesu Zhou, Ayansola O. Ayandibu, Tendai Chimucheka and Mandla M. Masuku
This study evaluates the impact of government social protection interventions on households’ welfare in South Africa.
Abstract
Purpose
This study evaluates the impact of government social protection interventions on households’ welfare in South Africa.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses survey data comprising 393 observations and the multinomial logistic regression technique to analyse the effect of government interventions on households’ welfare. For robustness purposes, a negative binomial regression model is also estimated whose results corroborate the main results from the multinomial regression model.
Findings
The study’s findings show that government economic interventions through social protection significantly reduce the likelihood of a decrease in household income or consumption. COVID-19 grant/social relief of distress grant, unemployment insurance, tax relief and job protection and creation are all significant in sustaining household income and consumption.
Practical implications
The findings have policy implications for social development. Specifically, the findings support the use of government social protection as a safety net for low-income groups in South Africa.
Originality/value
The study presents preliminary evidence on the effectiveness of several measures used to ameliorate the COVID-19-induced recession within the South African context.
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