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The purpose of this paper is to investigate for symmetries – in sign and size – between spot and futures prices in the markets of energy commodities.

The aforementioned objective is pursued using daily observations of spot and futures prices for the commodities of crude oil, Brent, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas, along with local nonlinear regression.

Symmetry in sign and size cannot be rejected. This means that, shocks of the same absolute magnitude, but of different sign, are transmitted from futures prices to spot prices with the same intensity. In addition, larger absolute value price shocks in the futures are transmitted to the spot markets with the same intensity compared with smaller ones. The findings of symmetry in the comovements among prices reveal a lack of those commodities on diversifying the investors’ investment risk.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use local nonlinear regression to test for sign and size symmetry between futures and spot prices in the energy commodities markets.

The study endeavors to explore whether the financialization of agricultural commodities, traditionally viewed as a catalyst for price volatility, has any repercussions on food security in BRICS economies.

The empirical analysis employs the examination of three agricultural commodities, namely wheat, maize and soybean. Utilizing data from the Chicago Board of Trade on futures trading for these commodities, we focus on parameters such as annual trading volume, annual open interest contracts and the ratio of annual trading volume to annual open interest contracts. The study spans the period 2000–2021, encompassing pre- and post-financial crisis analyses and specifically explores the BRICS countries namely the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. To scrutinize the connections between financialization indicators and food security measures, the analysis employs econometric techniques such as panel data regression analysis and a moderating effects model.

The results indicate that the financialization of agricultural products contributes to the heightened food price volatility and has adverse effects on food security in emerging economies. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of the financialization of agricultural commodities on food security was more pronounced in emerging nations after the global financial crisis of 2008 compared to the pre-crisis period.

This paper seeks to draw increased attention to the financialization of agricultural commodities by presenting empirical evidence of its potential impact on food security in BRICS economies. The findings serve as a valuable guide for policymakers, offering insights to help them safeguard the security and availability of the world’s food supply.

Very few studies have explored the effect of financialization of agricultural commodities on food security covering a sample of developing economies, with sample period from 2000 to 2021, especially at the individual agriculture commodity level. Understanding the evolving effects of financialization is further improved by comparing pre and post-financial crisis times.

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

A structural model is employed to uncover relationships among commodity price, price volatility, inventories and convenience yield. Monthly producer price data along with annual data on trade, consumption, inventories and tariffs for 71 countries and 13 commodities covering 2010–2019 are assembled to estimate the model. With a first-stage Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator to identify the best instrument set, a nonlinear approach is used to estimate the model.

Results show that international market information plays a critical role in domestic market price dynamics. International price volatility has a stronger effect on domestic prices than that of international inventories.

Current upheaval in commodity markets requires an understanding of how prices move together and inventories affect that movement. A country's internal price is not independent of the effects of global market events.

Although hypotheses exist that global market information (volatility and inventories) helps countries manage domestic commodity prices, there have been limited studies on this relationship, especially with a structured model and cross-country data.

After completion of the case study, the students will be able to understand the different risks associated with a business, focusing on price risk and the importance of price risk management in business; understand and evaluate the products available for hedging price risk through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario; and understand and evaluate the different strategies for price risk management through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario.

The case study pertains to a small business, M/s Sethi Jewellers. The enterprise is being run by Shri Charan Jeet Sethi and his son Tejinder Sethi. The business is located in Jain Bazar, Jammu, UT, in Northern India. The business was started in 1972 by Charan Jeet’s father. They deal in a wide range of jewelry products and are well-established jewelers known for selling quality ornaments. Tejinder (MBA in marketing) was instrumental in revamping his business recently. Under his leadership, the business has experienced rapid transformation. The business has grown from a one-room shop fully managed by Tejinder’s grandfather to a multistory showroom with several artisans, sales staff and security persons. Through his e-store, Tejinder has a bulk order from a client where the client requires him to accept the order with a small token at the current price and deliver the final product three months from now. Tejinder is in a dilemma about accepting or rejecting the large order. Second, if he accepts, should he buy the entire gold now or wait to buy it later at a lower price? He is also considering hedging the price risk through exchange-traded derivatives. However, he is not entirely sure, as he has a few apprehensions regarding the same, and he is also not fully aware of the process and the instruments he has to use for hedging the price risk on the exchange.

The case study is aimed to cater to undergraduate, postgraduate and MBA students in the field of finance. This case study can be used for students interested in commodity derivatives, risk management and market microstructure.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 1: Accounting and finance.

The purpose of this paper is to scrutinise the effectiveness of four derivative exchanges’ enforcement efforts since 2007. These exchanges include the Commodity Exchange Inc. and ICE Futures US from the United States and ICE Futures Europe and the London Metal Exchange from the UK.

The paper examines 799 enforcement notices published by four exchanges through a behavioural science lens: HUMANS conceived by Hunt (2023) in Humanizing Rules: Bringing Behavioural Science to Ethics and Compliance.

The paper finds the effectiveness of the exchanges’ enforcement efforts to be a mixed picture as financial markets transition from the digital to artificial intelligence era. Humans remain a key cog in the wheel of market participants’ trading operations, albeit their roles have changed. Despite this, some elements of exchanges’ enforcement regimes have not kept pace with the move from floor to remote trading. However, in other respects, their efforts are or should be, effective, at least in behavioural terms.

The paper’s findings are arguably limited to exchanges based in Anglophone jurisdictions. The information published by the exchanges is variable, making “like-for-like” comparisons difficult in some areas.

The paper makes several recommendations that, if adopted, could help exchanges to increase the potency of their enforcement programmes.

A key aim of the paper is to shift the lens through which the debate concerning the efficacy of exchange-level oversight is conducted. Hitherto, a legal lens has been used, whereas this paper uses a behavioural lens.

We aim to clarify the effect of economic uncertainty on Chinese stock market fluctuations. We extend the understanding of the asymmetric connectedness between economic uncertainty and stock market risk and provide different characteristics of spillovers from economic uncertainty to both upside and downside risk. Furthermore, we aim to provide the different impact patterns of stock market volatility following several exogenous shocks.

We construct a Chinese economic uncertainty index using a Factor-Augmented Variable Auto-Regressive Stochastic Volatility (FAVAR-SV) model for high-dimensional data. We then examine the asymmetric impact of realized volatility and economic uncertainty on the long-term volatility components of the stock market through the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Mixed Data Sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) model.

Negative news, including negative return-related volatility and higher economic uncertainty, has a greater impact on the long-term volatility components than positive news. During the financial crisis of 2008, economic uncertainty and realized volatility had a significant impact on long-term volatility components but did not constitute long-term volatility components during the 2015 A-share stock market crash and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The two-factor asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model outperformed the other two models in terms of explanatory power, fitting ability and out-of-sample forecasting ability for the long-term volatility component.

Many GARCH series models can also combine the GARCH series model with the MIDAS method, including but not limited to Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH). These diverse models may exhibit distinct reactions to economic uncertainty. Consequently, further research should be undertaken to juxtapose alternative models for assessing the stock market response.

Our conclusions have important implications for stakeholders, including policymakers, market regulators and investors, to promote market stability. Understanding the asymmetric shock arising from economic uncertainty on volatility enables market participants to assess the potential repercussions of negative news, engage in timely and effective volatility prediction, implement risk management strategies and offer a reference for financial regulators to preemptively address and mitigate systemic financial risks.

First, in the face of domestic and international uncertainties and challenges, policymakers must increase communication with the market and improve policy transparency to effectively guide market expectations. Second, stock market authorities should improve the basic regulatory system of the capital market and optimize investor structure. Third, investors should gradually shift to long-term value investment concepts and jointly promote market stability.

This study offers a novel perspective on incorporating a Chinese economic uncertainty index constructed by a high-dimensional FAVAR-SV model into the asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model.

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance. Our study delves into this complex backdrop, focusing on the intricate interplay the between traditional and emerging energy sectors.

This study analyzes the interconnections among green financial assets, renewable energy markets, the geopolitical risk index and cryptocurrency carbon emissions from December 19, 2017 to February 15, 2023. We investigate these relationships using a novel time-frequency connectedness approach and machine learning methodology.

Our findings reveal that green energy stocks, except the PBW, exhibit the highest net transmission of volatility, followed by COAL. In contrast, CARBON emerges as the primary net recipient of volatility, followed by fuel energy assets. The frequency decomposition results also indicate that the long-term components serve as the primary source of directional volatility spillover, suggesting that volatility transmission among green stocks and energy assets tends to occur over a more extended period. The SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) results show that the green and fuel energy markets are negatively connected with geopolitical risks (GPRs). The results obtained through the SHAP analysis confirm the novel time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness findings. The CARBON and PBW markets consistently experience spillover shocks from other markets in short and long-term horizons. The role of crude oil as a receiver or transmitter of shocks varies over time.

Green financial assets and clean energy play significant roles in the financial markets and reduce geopolitical risk. Our study employs a time-frequency connectedness approach to assess the interconnections among four markets' families: fuel, renewable energy, green stocks and carbon markets. We utilize the novel TVP-VAR approach, which allows for flexibility and enables us to measure net pairwise connectedness in both short and long-term horizons.

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.

This article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.

The findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.

This paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.

The study investigates the inter-linkages between geopolitical risk (GPR) and food price (FP).

By employing the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests.

The empirical results show that there is a time-varying bidirectional causality between GPR and FP. High GPR leads to a rise in FP, suggesting that geopolitical events usually may disrupt supply and demand conditions in food markets, and even trigger global food crises. However, the negative effect of GPR on FP does not support this view in certain periods. This is mainly because GPR is also related to the global economic situation and oil price, which together have impacts on the food market. These results cannot always be supported by the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model, which states that GPR affects FP in a positive manner. Conversely, there is a positive impact of FP on GPR, indicating that the food market is an effective tool that can reflect global geopolitical environment.

In the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, these analyses can assist investors and policymakers to understand the sensitivity of FP to GPR. Also, it will provide significant revelations for governments to attach importance to the role of food price information in predicting geopolitical events, thus contributing to a more stable international environment.

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.

DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.

The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.

Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.