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Article

Moshe Szweizer

The purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property yields by providing a cross-field approach through the implementation of methods used in physics.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to extend the studies of commercial property yields by providing a cross-field approach through the implementation of methods used in physics.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the equations used to describe real gases in physics, the commercial property yields are expressed through a model, as a product of two terms. The first term estimates the influence of the income change and investment on yields. The second estimates the yield variation as a function of property size. Additionally, the model combines the macroeconomic and microeconomic components influencing yield adjustment. Calculation of each component involves procedures developed in physics, with the investment volume being linked to the amount of gas and the microeconomic yield being linked to the gas compressibility.

Findings

The model was applied to the Auckland office and industrial markets, both to the historic and current cycle. At the macro-level, it was found that the use of accumulation of investment over a relevant cycle, results in a high data to model correlation. When modelling the yields at the micro-level, a relationship between the outlying properties and the yield softening was observed.

Practical implications

The paper provides an enhanced modelling power through association of the cyclic and investment activity with the yield change. Moreover, the model may be used to decouple the local and the international investment components and the extent of their influence on the local property market. Furthermore, it may be used to estimate the influence of the property size on the yield.

Originality/value

This research provides a new cross-field application of modelling techniques and enhances the understanding of factors influencing yield adjustments.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 37 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

Tony McGough and Jim Berry

In the light of past financial and economic turmoil, there has been a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. This has impacted on the pricing of…

Abstract

Purpose

In the light of past financial and economic turmoil, there has been a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. This has impacted on the pricing of property assets, partly through market sentiment and particularly concerning risk. It also limits modelling accuracy model accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to create a new variable and model to enhance analysis of what drives real estate yields incorporating market sentiment to risk.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper specifically considers the modelling of property pricing within a volatile economic environment. The theoretical context begins by analysing the relationship between property yields and government bonds. The analytical context then moves on to specifically include a measurement of risk which stresses its role and importance in investment markets since the Global Financial Crisis. The model thus incorporates macroeconomic and real estate data, together with an international risk multiplier, which is calculated within the paper.

Findings

The paper finds the use of measurements of market sentiment and risk are more powerful tools for modelling yields than previous techniques alone.

Research limitations/implications

This is an initial paper outlining the creation of sentiment and risk measurements in the financial market and showing an example of its application to a commercial real estate market. The implication is that this could add a major new explanatory variable to modelling of yields.

Practical implications

The paper highlights the importance of risk in the pricing of commercial real estate, over and above normal variables. It highlights how this can help explain over and undershooting of yields within commercial real estate which would be of great importance in the investment world.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to explicitly measure market sentiment, pricing of risk and how this impacts real estate pricing.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

Moshe Szweizer

The purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.

Findings

The general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.

Practical implications

The model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.

Originality/value

The paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

Kyung-Min Kim, Geon Kim and Sotiris Tsolacos

After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the impact of expanded liquidity in the financial market has drawn attention. The purpose of this paper is to examine the…

Abstract

Purpose

After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the impact of expanded liquidity in the financial market has drawn attention. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between liquidity in financial markets and office markets across Asian countries. In particular, the research not only examines the effect of normal liquidity on real estate markets, but also the effects of excess liquidity are specifically highlighted.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses panel estimation utilizing quarterly data from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2015. Taking both time and location dimensions into account allows for a more precise estimate of the relationship between liquidity and office market’s yields.

Findings

Per the empirical outcome, an increasing excess liquidity tends to decelerate the value of office yields in six major Asian office market centers due to the positive effect on commercial real estate value. This effect is also identified by comparing the difference between the level of fitted yields and actual yields.

Practical implications

The results enhance the understanding of commercial real estate yield determinants. Furthermore, the results can be used to assess the impacts of liquidity on major office markets in Asia.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to uncover the impact of liquidity in financial markets on the office market yields. To better understand the relationship, the concept of excess liquidity is adopted and further exploration of each office market is conducted by comparing the fitted yields, which is computed considering the effects of excess liquidity on yield levels and actual yields.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 37 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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Article

Amrik Singh

This study aims to investigate the determinants of credit spreads in hotel loans securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) between 2010 and 2015.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the determinants of credit spreads in hotel loans securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) between 2010 and 2015.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample represents 1,579 US hotel fixed interest rate whole loans with an aggregate mortgage value of $26.6bn at loan origination. The relationship between credit spreads and property, loan and market characteristic is examined via multiple regression analysis. Additionally, the method of 2-stage least squares is used to control for endogeneity bias and identify the effect of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on credit spreads.

Findings

The multiple regression models explain 80 per cent of the variation in credit spreads and show a significant association of credit spreads with hotel and loan characteristics and market conditions. The findings indicate the debt coverage ratio to be the most important predictor of credit spreads followed by the loan maturity term, implied capitalization rate, LTV and yield curve. The results show the debt yield premium to be a stronger predictor of credit spreads than the debt yield ratio. The spread between the debt yield ratio and mortgage interest rate could be used in future research as an instrumental variable to identify the effect of the LTV on credit spreads.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited to the CMBS market and the period after the financial crisis. Additional limitations include sample selection bias, exclusion of multi-property loans and variable interest rate loans.

Practical implications

Interest rate increases in an expanding economy would likely increase the cost of borrowing for hotel owners leading to higher debt service payments and lower profitability. If an increase in interest rates is offset by a decline in credit spreads, hotel owners will still benefit from the ensuing stability in borrowing interest rates. The evidence also suggests that CMBS lenders favor select service and extended stay hotels. Owners and operators of these efficient and profitable hotels will likely obtain loans with lower credit spreads given their lower risk of default.

Originality/value

The current study provides evidence on the effects of loan and property characteristics in the pricing of loan risk and serves to inform CMBS market participants about the factors that drive credit spreads in hotel mortgage loans.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article

Matthew Scrimshaw

The purpose of this paper is to consider the likely effect on capital values of prime retail property in major UK urban centres from any legislative ban of upward‐only…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider the likely effect on capital values of prime retail property in major UK urban centres from any legislative ban of upward‐only rent reviews (UORRs) from commercial leases.

Design/methodology/approach

The opinion of Leeds‐based valuers regarding changes to yield and rent following a hypothetical ban of UORRs was surveyed and the implied effect on capital values calculated. Rental valuation data were obtained for a portfolio of prime retail properties located in Leeds and its satellite commercial centres, forming a case study. The data were combined with survey responses to develop a valuation model to further consider, in an applied context, the effect on capital values as a result of prohibiting UORRs. The hypothesis tested is that, immediately following enactment, prohibition of UORRs will cause a reduction in capital values of prime retail property in major UK urban centres.

Findings

The conclusion drawn from the research is that, based on contemporary professional opinion, the hypothesis is likely to be true though the extent of the reduction will vary as a function of specific lease and property characteristics.

Research limitations/implications

The behaviour of valuers and the issue of subjectivity in valuation is a limitation of this positivist research. An alternative phenomenological approach, perhaps with structured interviews at its core, might produce alternative findings.

Originality/value

This research attempts to quantify the effect on capital values on prime retail property following any ban of upwards only rent reviews, a subject that holds a high level of contemporary interest with all property stakeholders.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 25 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

Paul L. Solano

A recent study found state bond bank participants continually realize considerable interest cost savings. Savings were calculated as differences in interest costs of bond…

Abstract

A recent study found state bond bank participants continually realize considerable interest cost savings. Savings were calculated as differences in interest costs of bond bank loans and the bond offerings participants would have sold as alternatives to loans, (alternative market offerings). The present evaluation determines the sources of the savings. Savings are generated by not only differences in issue characteristics of bond bank issues and alternative market offerings, but also differential impacts of the same market forces and institutional factors on the interest costs of both types of sales. These findings verify that bond bank issues and alternative market offerings sell in different sub-markets, and confirm municipal bond market segmentation.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1096-3367

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Article

Ka Shing Cheung and Joshua Lee

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate is an asset that is traded in highly segmented, illiquid and informationally inefficient local markets. A short sale in real estate is almost infeasible and therefore impedes informed rational arbitrageurs to trade against mispricing. Thus, real estate returns are prone to sentiment-driven behaviours. Will the impacts on asset returns be identical for different types of sentiment?

Design/methodology/approach

This study argues that not all sentiment effects are created equal. Using the bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, this paper examines how occupier sentiment versus investor sentiment contributes to the short-run and long-run dynamics of commercial real estate returns in Australia.

Findings

The empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment and occupier sentiment influence return asymmetrically after macroeconomic conditions are controlled for.

Practical implications

The sectoral analysis further reveals that sector-specific sentiment plays a significant role in explaining commercial real estate returns. Furthermore, notable improvement is found in producing more accurate prediction in returns, given that measures of occupier and investor sentiment are appropriately specified in the forecast.

Originality/value

This study is novel in the sense that it acknowledges the impacts of occupiers' and investors' sentiment may be fundamentally different. The unique innovation and contribution of this study to behavioural finance literature are based on a new dataset from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors which includes a survey-based measure of investor sentiment and occupier sentiment.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article

Cay Oertel, Jonas Willwersch and Marcelo Cajias

The purpose of this study is to introduce a new perspective on determinants of cross-border investments in commercial real estate, namely, the relative attractiveness of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to introduce a new perspective on determinants of cross-border investments in commercial real estate, namely, the relative attractiveness of a target market. So far, the literature has analyzed only absolute measures of investment attractiveness as determinants of cross-border investment flows.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical study uses a classic ordinary least squares estimation for a European panel data set containing 28 cities in 18 countries, with quarterly observations from Q1/2008 to Q3/2018. After controlling for empirically proven explanatory covariates, the model is extended by the new relative measurement based on relative yields/cap rates and relative risk premia. Additionally, the study applies a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to investigate a potentially nonlinear relationship.

Findings

The study finds on average a ceteris paribus, statistically significant lagged influence of the proxy for relative attractiveness. Nonetheless, a differentiation is needed; relative risk premia are statistically significant, whereas relative yields are not. Moreover, the GAMM confirms a nonlinear relationship for relative risk premia and cross-border transaction volumes.

Practical implications

The results are of interest for both academia and market participants as a means of explaining cross-border capital flows. The existing knowledge on determinants is expanded by relative market attractiveness, as well as an awareness of nonlinear relationships. Both insights help to comprehend the underlying transaction dynamics in commercial real estate markets.

Originality/value

Whereas the existing body of literature focuses on absolute attractiveness to explain cross-border transaction activity, this study introduces relative attractiveness as an explanatory variable.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Book part

Masahiro Inoguchi

This chapter examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Some…

Abstract

This chapter examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Some studies have argued that the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC) affected domestic banks less in East Asia, even though the supporting evidence is rather limited. Employing a multinomial logit model, we estimate how changes in the United States and Japanese stock markets affected the banking sectors in the sampled countries before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and before and during the more recent GFC. We interpret the number of banks in a given country that experienced a large price shock on the same day (or “coexceedance”) as shocks to the domestic banking sector. The results suggest that fluctuations in foreign stock market indices exerted a larger impact on the prices of East Asian banking stocks during the 2000s than during the 1990s. In addition, although the shocks brought about by the deterioration of foreign stock markets were significant before the GFC, both increases and decreases in foreign stock prices significantly affected the banking sectors of the respective countries during the crisis. Lastly, we conclude that increasing foreign capital flows and foreign assets and liabilities greatly influenced domestic banking systems in East Asia during the 2000s.

Details

Risk Management Post Financial Crisis: A Period of Monetary Easing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-027-8

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