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1 – 10 of 308Chuanmin Mi, Xiaoyi Gou, Yating Ren, Bo Zeng, Jamshed Khalid and Yuhuan Ma
Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system…
Abstract
Purpose
Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system. Consequently, it fosters reasonable scheduling plans, ensuring the safety of the system and improving the economic dispatching efficiency of the power system.
Design/methodology/approach
First, a new seasonal grey buffer operator in the longitudinal and transverse dimensional perspectives is designed. Then, a new seasonal grey modeling approach that integrates the new operator, full real domain fractional order accumulation generation technique, grey prediction modeling tool and fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed. Moreover, the rationality, scientificity and superiority of the new approach are verified by designing 24 seasonal electricity consumption forecasting approaches, incorporating case study and amalgamating qualitative and quantitative research.
Findings
Compared with other comparative models, the new approach has superior mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, the research results show that the new method provides a scientific and effective mathematical method for solving the seasonal trend power consumption forecasting modeling with impact disturbance.
Originality/value
Considering the development trend of longitudinal and transverse dimensions of seasonal data with impact disturbance and the differences in each stage, a new grey buffer operator is constructed, and a new seasonal grey modeling approach with multi-method fusion is proposed to solve the seasonal power consumption forecasting problem.
Highlights
The highlights of the paper are as follows:
A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.
The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.
A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.
Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.
The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.
A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.
The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.
A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.
Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.
The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.
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Keywords
Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Mohammed Hamaidi, Mohammad M. Hamed, Abdelhamid Issa Hassane and Jean Gaston Tamba
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic…
Abstract
Purpose
For some years now, Cameroon has seen a significant increase in its electricity demand, and this need is bound to grow within the next few years owing to the current economic growth and the ambitious projects underway. Therefore, one of the state's priorities is the mastery of electricity demand. In order to get there, it would be helpful to have reliable forecasting tools. This study proposes a novel version of the discrete grey multivariate convolution model (ODGMC(1,N)).
Design/methodology/approach
Specifically, a linear corrective term is added to its structure, parameterisation is done in a way that is consistent to the modelling procedure and the cumulated forecasting function of ODGMC(1,N) is obtained through an iterative technique.
Findings
Results show that ODGMC(1,N) is more stable and can extract the relationships between the system's input variables. To demonstrate and validate the superiority of ODGMC(1,N), a practical example drawn from the projection of electricity demand in Cameroon till 2030 is used. The findings reveal that the proposed model has a higher prediction precision, with 1.74% mean absolute percentage error and 132.16 root mean square error.
Originality/value
These interesting results are due to (1) the stability of ODGMC(1,N) resulting from a good adequacy between parameters estimation and their implementation, (2) the addition of a term that takes into account the linear impact of time t on the model's performance and (3) the removal of irrelevant information from input data by wavelet transform filtration. Thus, the suggested ODGMC is a robust predictive and monitoring tool for tracking the evolution of electricity needs.
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Weiliang Zhang, Sifeng Liu, Junliang Du, Liangyan Tao and Wenjie Dong
The purpose of this study is to advance a novel evaluation index system and evaluation approach for ability of older adults in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to advance a novel evaluation index system and evaluation approach for ability of older adults in China.
Design/methodology/approach
This study constructed a comprehensive older adult ability evaluation index system with 4 primary indicators and 17 secondary indicators. Grey clustering analysis and entropy weight method are combined into a robust evaluation model for the ability of older adults.
Findings
The result demonstrates that the proposed grey clustering model is readily available to calculate the disability level of elderly individuals. The constructed index system more comprehensively considers all aspects of the disability of the elderly.
Originality/value
This study provides a quantitative method and a more reasonable index system for the determination of the disability level of the elderly.
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Assembly line is a common production form and has been effectively used in many industries, but the imprecise processing time of each process makes production line balancing and…
Abstract
Purpose
Assembly line is a common production form and has been effectively used in many industries, but the imprecise processing time of each process makes production line balancing and capacity forecasting the most troublesome problems for production managers. In this paper, uncertain man-hours are represented as interval grey numbers, and the optimization problem of production line balance in the case of interval grey man-hours is studied to better evaluate the production line capacity.
Design/methodology/approach
First, this paper constructs the basic model of assembly line balance optimization for the single-product scenario, and on this basis constructs an assembly line balance optimization model under the multi-product scenario with the objective function of maximizing the weighted greyscale production line balance rate, second, this paper designs a simulated annealing algorithm to solve problem. A neighborhood search strategy is proposed, based on assembly line balance optimization, an assembly line capacity evaluation method with interval grey man-hour characteristics is designed.
Findings
This paper provides a production line balance optimization scheme with uncertain processing time for multi-product scenarios and designs a capacity evaluation method to provide managers with scientific management strategies so that decision-makers can scientifically solve the problems that the company's design production line is quite different from the actual production situation.
Originality/value
There are few literary studies on combining interval grey number with assembly line balance optimization. Therefore, this paper makes an important contribution in this regard.
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Yong Liu, Xue-ge Guo, Qin Jiang and Jing-yi Zhang
We attempt to construct a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints to deal with correlated conflict problems with uncertain information.
Abstract
Purpose
We attempt to construct a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints to deal with correlated conflict problems with uncertain information.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to address these correlated conflict problems with uncertain information, considering the interactive influence and mutual restraints among agents and portraying their attitudes toward the conflict issues, we utilize grey numbers and three-way decisions to propose a grey three-way conflict analysis model with constraints. Firstly, based on the collected information, we introduced grey theory, calculated the degree of conflict between agents and then analyzed the conflict alliance based on the three-way decision theory. Finally, we designed a feedback mechanism to identify key agents and key conflict issues. A case verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.
Findings
The results show that the proposed model can portray their attitudes toward conflict issues and effectively extract conflict-related information.
Originality/value
By employing this approach, we can provide the answers to Deja’s fundamental questions regarding Pawlak’s conflict analysis: “what are the underlying causes of conflict?” and “how can a viable consensus strategy be identified?”
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Xiaomei Liu, Bin Ma, Meina Gao and Lin Chen
A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey…
Abstract
Purpose
A time-varying grey Fourier model (TVGFM(1,1,N)) is proposed for the simulation of variable amplitude seasonal fluctuation time series, as the performance of traditional grey models can't catch the time-varying trend well.
Design/methodology/approach
The proposed model couples Fourier series and linear time-varying terms as the grey action, to describe the characteristics of variable amplitude and seasonality. The truncated Fourier order N is preselected from the alternative order set by Nyquist-Shannon sampling theorem and the principle of simplicity, then the optimal Fourier order is determined by hold-out method to improve the robustness of the proposed model. Initial value correction and the multiple transformation are also studied to improve the precision.
Findings
The new model has a broader applicability range as a result of the new grey action, attaining higher fitting and forecasting accuracy. The numerical experiment of a generated monthly time series indicates the proposed model can accurately fit the variable amplitude seasonal sequence, in which the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is only 0.01%, and the complex simulations based on Monte-Carlo method testify the validity of the proposed model. The results of monthly electricity consumption in China's primary industry, demonstrate the proposed model catches the time-varying trend and has good performances, where MAPEF and MAPET are below 5%. Moreover, the proposed TVGFM(1,1,N) model is superior to the benchmark models, grey polynomial model (GMP(1,1,N)), grey Fourier model (GFM(1,1,N)), seasonal grey model (SGM(1,1)), seasonal ARIMA model seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR).
Originality/value
The parameter estimates and forecasting of the new proposed TVGFM are studied, and the good fitting and forecasting accuracy of time-varying amplitude seasonal fluctuation series are testified by numerical simulations and a case study.
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The author identifies the traits of consumer resilience in emerging markets, classifies these major traits into five categories and analyses the influence relationships among them…
Abstract
Purpose
The author identifies the traits of consumer resilience in emerging markets, classifies these major traits into five categories and analyses the influence relationships among them with distinctive focus on the psychological and personal resilience aspects.
Design/methodology/approach
The influence relations among the traits of consumer resilience from an expert perspective were identified with typical focus on electronic supply chains, and later the same was analysed through an intelligent influence modelling method, the grey causal modelling (GCM).
Findings
The major traits were analysed using the GCM, where the cause–consequence relations were observed for various objectives and the situational effects are noted. By constructing a magnitude plot and further a causal magnitude table, the important influence traits of consumer resilience for the considered case were observed and the same were auxiliary validated using an interpretive structural modelling (ISM) based approach.
Research limitations/implications
As perceived from the results, it is evident that social support and recommendations from customers emerge as the principal influence traits of consumer resilience from an expert perspective, considering the case. The study can be further extended empirically to validate the findings.
Practical implications
Altogether, the author can recommend for practitioners that the influence of family, society, friends, peers as well as ratings from the customers can determine the level of consumer resilience. Hence, practitioners of customer relationship management can focus on improving the product and brand awareness among customers, so that more customers may recommend for typical products.
Originality/value
Consumer resilience depend on several factors, where the author has identified 25 major traits of the same and classified them into five major categories, including individual psychological factors, individual attitudes, individual socio demographic factors, micro environmental factors and macro environmental factors and the influence relations among them were studied from an expert perspective.
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Liyi Zhang, Mingyue Fu, Teng Fei, Ming K. Lim and Ming-Lang Tseng
This study reduces carbon emission in logistics distribution to realize the low-carbon site optimization for a cold chain logistics distribution center problem.
Abstract
Purpose
This study reduces carbon emission in logistics distribution to realize the low-carbon site optimization for a cold chain logistics distribution center problem.
Design/methodology/approach
This study involves cooling, commodity damage and carbon emissions and establishes the site selection model of low-carbon cold chain logistics distribution center aiming at minimizing total cost, and grey wolf optimization algorithm is used to improve the artificial fish swarm algorithm to solve a cold chain logistics distribution center problem.
Findings
The optimization results and stability of the improved algorithm are significantly improved and compared with other intelligent algorithms. The result is confirmed to use the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region site selection. This study reduces composite cost of cold chain logistics and reduces damage to environment to provide a new idea for developing cold chain logistics.
Originality/value
This study contributes to propose an optimization model of low-carbon cold chain logistics site by considering various factors affecting cold chain products and converting carbon emissions into costs. Prior studies are lacking to take carbon emissions into account in the logistics process. The main trend of current economic development is low-carbon and the logistics distribution is an energy consumption and high carbon emissions.
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Da Huo, Rihui Ouyang, Aidi Tang, Wenjia Gu and Zhongyuan Liu
This paper delves into cross-border E-business, unraveling its intricate dynamics and forecasting its future trajectory.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper delves into cross-border E-business, unraveling its intricate dynamics and forecasting its future trajectory.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper projects the prospective market size of cross-border E-business in China for the year 2023 using the GM (1,1) gray forecasting model. Furthermore, to enhance the analysis, the paper attempts to simulate and forecast the size of China’s cross-border E-business sector using the GM (1,3) gray model. This extended model considers not only the historical trends of cross-border E-business but also the growth patterns of GDP and the digital economy.
Findings
The forecast indicates a market size of 18,760 to 18,934 billion RMB in 2023, aligning with the consistent growth observed in previous years. This suggests a sustained positive trajectory for cross-border E-business.
Originality/value
Cross-border e-commerce critically shapes China’s global integration and traditional industry development. The research in this paper provides insights beyond statistical trends, contributing to a nuanced understanding of the pivotal role played by cross-border e-commerce in shaping China’s economic future.
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M.A. Xianglin, Haochen Cai, Qiming Yang, Gang Wang and Kun Mao
This paper establishes a quality model for automation assembly of range hood impeller based on generalized grey relational degree, it improves the debugging efficiency of the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper establishes a quality model for automation assembly of range hood impeller based on generalized grey relational degree, it improves the debugging efficiency of the newly developed assembly workstation.
Design/methodology/approach
First, spot check the trial production impellers and obtain three indexes that reflect the assembly quality of the impellers. Then, analyze the parameters that affect the assembly quality of the impeller using grey relational analysis (GRA), establish a model for the assembly quality of the range hood impeller based on the generalized grey relational degree and identify the main parameters. After that, analyze the transmission structure of automation assembly workstation, identify the reasons that affect parameters and propose improvement plans. Finally, a trial production is conducted on the automation assembly workstation after adopting the improved plan to verify the quality model of impeller automation assembly.
Findings
The research shows that compared to manual assembly, the automation assembly quality of the impeller using GRA model has been improved, shortening the debugging cycle of the newly developed assembly workstation.
Practical implications
The newly developed automation equipment will have some problems in the trial production stage, which often rely on the experience of engineers for debugging. In this paper, the automation assembly quality model of range hood impeller based on GRA is established, which can not only ensure the quality of finished impeller but also shorten the debugging cycle of the equipment. In addition, GRA can be widely used in the commissioning of other automation equipment.
Originality/value
This study has developed a set of impeller automation assembly workstation. The debugging method in the trial production stage is beneficial to shorten the trial production time and improve the economic benefits.
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