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Tourism demand forecasting is vital for the airline industry and tourism sector. Combination forecasting has the advantage of fusing several forecasts to reduce the risk of inappropriate model selection for analyzing decisions. This paper investigated the effects of a time-varying weighting strategy on the performance of linear and nonlinear forecast combinations in the context of tourism.

This study used grey prediction models, which did not require that the available data satisfy statistical assumptions, to generate forecasts. A quality-control technique was applied to determine when to change the combination weights to generate combined forecasts by using linear and nonlinear methods.

The empirical results showed that except for when the Choquet fuzzy integral was used, forecast combination with time-varying weights did not significantly outperform that with fixed weights. The Choquet integral with time-varying weights significantly outperformed that with fixed weights for all model combinations, and had a superior forecasting accuracy to those of other combination methods.

The tourism sector can benefit from the use of the Choquet integral with time-varying weights, by using it to formulate suitable strategies for tourist destinations.

Combining forecasts with time-varying weights may improve the accuracy of the predictions. This study investigated incorporating a time-varying weighting strategy into combination forecasting by using CUSUM. The results verified the effectiveness of the time-varying Choquet integral for tourism forecast combination.

This study attempts to discover effective strategies for mobile commerce applications (apps) to grow their consumer base by releasing app strategic updates. Drawing on the landscape search model from strategy research, this study conceptualizes mobile app update strategy as three interdependent decisions, i.e. what business elements are changed in an app strategic update, how substantial the changes are and when strategic updates are released relative to the competitive environment.

Using a field data set of 1,500 strategic updates of seven rival apps in the mobile travel market, this study integrated fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) with econometric analysis to analyze how app strategic update decisions interdependently influence app performance.

This study identified three effective and one ineffective mobile app update strategies from the mixed-method analysis, which verified the complex interdependency of app strategic update decisions. A general takeaway from these strategies is that a complex strategy problem on the mobile platform must be solved with respect to the constraints and capabilities of mobile technology.

This study moves beyond a linear view of the relationship between app update frequency and app performance and provides a holistic view of how and why app strategic update decisions mutually influence one another in their impact on app performance. This work makes contributions by identifying interdependency as a conceptual bridge between strategy and mobile app literature and developing an empirically testable version of the landscape search model.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new linear-nonlinear data preprocessing-based hybrid model to achieve a more accurate result at a lower cost for wind power forecasting. For this purpose, a decomposed based series-parallel hybrid model (PKF-ARIMA-FMLP) is proposed which can model linear/nonlinear and certain/uncertain patterns in underlying data simultaneously.

To design the proposed model at first, underlying data are divided into two categories of linear and nonlinear patterns by the proposed Kalman filter (PKF) technique. Then, the linear patterns are modeled by the linear-fuzzy nonlinear series (LLFN) hybrid models to detect linearity/nonlinearity and certainty/uncertainty in underlying data simultaneously. This step is also repeated for nonlinear decomposed patterns. Therefore, the nonlinear patterns are modeled by the linear-fuzzy nonlinear series (NLFN) hybrid models. Finally, the weight of each component (e.g. KF, LLFN and NLFN) is calculated by the least square algorithm, and then the results are combined in a parallel structure. Then the linear and nonlinear patterns are modeled with the lowest cost and the highest accuracy.

The effectiveness and predictive capability of the proposed model are examined and compared with its components, based models, single models, series component combination based hybrid models, parallel component combination based hybrid models and decomposed-based single model. Numerical results show that the proposed linear-nonlinear data preprocessing-based hybrid models have been able to improve the performance of single, hybrid and single decomposed based prediction methods by approximately 66.29%, 52.10% and 38.13% for predicting wind power time series in the test data, respectively.

The combination of single linear and nonlinear models has expanded due to the theory of the existence of linear and nonlinear patterns simultaneously in real-world data. The main idea of the linear and nonlinear hybridization method is to combine the benefits of these models to identify the linear and nonlinear patterns in the data in series, parallel or series-parallel based models by reducing the limitations of the single model that leads to higher accuracy, more comprehensiveness and less risky predictions. Although the literature shows that the combination of linear and nonlinear models can improve the prediction results by detecting most of the linear and nonlinear patterns in underlying data, the investigation of linear and nonlinear patterns before entering linear and nonlinear models can improve the performance, which in no paper this separation of patterns into two classes of linear and nonlinear is considered. So by this new data preprocessing based method, the modeling error can be reduced and higher accuracy can be achieved at a lower cost.

Existing deterministic models that predict the capacity of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) beams have limited applicability because they were based on accelerated tests that induce general corrosion. This research gap was addressed by performing a combined numerical and statistical analysis on RC beams, subjected to natural corrosion, to achieve a much better forecast.

Data of 42 naturally corroded beams were collected from the literature and analyzed numerically. Four constitutive models and their combinations were considered: the elastic-semi-plastic and elastic-perfectly-plastic models for steel, and two tensile models for concrete with and without the post-cracking stresses. Meanwhile, Popovics’ model was used to describe the behavior of concrete under compression. Corrosion coefficients were developed as functions of corrosion degree and beam parameters through linear regression analysis to fit the theoretical moment capacities with test data. The performance of the coefficients derived from different combinations of constitutive laws was then compared and validated.

The results showed that the highest accuracy (R² = 0.90) was achieved when the tensile response of concrete was modeled without the residual stresses after cracking and the steel was analyzed as an elastic-perfectly-plastic material. The proposed procedure and regression model also showed reasonable agreement with experimental data, even performing better than the current models derived from accelerated tests and traditional procedures.

This study presents a simple but reliable approach for quantifying the capacity of RC beams under more realistic conditions than previously reported. This method is simple and requires only a few variables to be employed. Civil engineers can use it to obtain a quick and rough estimate of the structural condition of corroding RC beams.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a system dynamic simulated process model for maintenance work management incorporating the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies.

The extant literature in physical assets maintenance depicts that poor maintenance management is predominantly because of a lack of a clearly defined maintenance work management process model, resulting in poor management of maintenance work. This paper solves this complex phenomenon using a combination of conceptual process modeling and system dynamics simulation incorporating 4IR technologies. A process for maintenance work management and its control actions on scheduled maintenance tasks versus unscheduled maintenance tasks is modeled, replicating real-world scenarios with a digital lens (4IR technologies) for predictive maintenance strategy.

A process for maintenance work management is thus modeled and simulated as a dynamic system. Post-model validation, this study reveals that the real-world maintenance work management process can be replicated using system dynamics modeling. The impact analysis of 4IR technologies on maintenance work management systems reveals that the implementation of 4IR technologies intensifies asset performance with an overall gain of 27.46%, yielding the best maintenance index. This study further reveals that the benefits of 4IR technologies positively impact equipment defect predictability before failure, thereby yielding a predictive maintenance strategy.

The study focused on maintenance work management system without the consideration of other subsystems such as cost of maintenance, production dynamics, and supply chain management.

The maintenance real-world quantitative data is retrieved from two maintenance departments from company A, for a period of 24 months, representing years 2017 and 2018. The maintenance quantitative data retrieved represent six various types of equipment used at underground Mines. The maintenance management qualitative data (Organizational documents) in maintenance management are retrieved from company A and company B. Company A is a global mining industry, and company B is a global manufacturing industry. The reliability of the data used in the model validation have practical implications on how maintenance work management system behaves with the benefit of 4IR technologies' implementation.

This research study yields an overall benefit in asset management, thereby intensifying asset performance. The expected learnings are intended to benefit future research in the physical asset management field of study and most important to the industry practitioners in physical asset management.

This paper provides for a model in which maintenance work and its dynamics is systematically managed. Uncontrollable corrective maintenance work increases the complexity of the overall maintenance work management. The use of a system dynamic model and simulation incorporating 4IR technologies adds value on the maintenance work management effectiveness.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel interval Multi-Objective Optimization by a Ratio Analysis plus the Full Multiplicative Form(MULTIMOORA) with combination weights to evaluate the employment quality of college graduates, where the criteria are expressed by interval numbers and the weights of criteria are completely unknown.

Firstly, considering the subjective uncertainty of the weights of the criteria, the interval best worst method (I-BWM) was present to determine the subjective weights of the criteria. Secondly, by the improved interval number distance measure, an improved interval deviation maximization method (I-MDM) was introduced to detemine the objective weights. In the following, based on the I-BWM and the improved I-MDM, a combination weighting method that takes into account the subjective and objective weights is proposed. Finally, a multi-criteria decision-making method based on the interval MULTIMOORA with combination weights is present to evaluate the employment quality of college graduates, and then a comparative analysis with some of the existing distance measures of interval numberswas conducted to illustrate the flexibility.

According to the data of the Report on Employment Quality of Chinese College Graduats released by Mycos Research Institute in 2016–2020 and 2021–2022, the proposed method was used to evaluate the employment quality of college graduates during the period before and after the COVID-19 epidemic. The results verify that the method is more reasonable because the subjective and objective weights of the criteria can be fully considered. Finally, the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method are further verified by varying parameters.

Present an evaluation method on the employment quality of college graduates based on the Interval MULTIMOORA with combination weights considering the subjective and objective weights. And the proposed method is proved that it can provide a more reasonable evaluation results. At the same time, it is verified that the feasibility and the practicability of the proposed method are affected by varying parameters in the paper.

This study aims to identify empirically proven strategies for reducing healthcare supply chain inventory costs.

The author conducted in-depth interviews in 80 hospitals covering different supply chains. The author treated the healthcare firm as the unit of analysis and examined Vrat's taxonomy of inventory models based on the static and dynamic complexity theories of inventory models to identify an appropriate approach. The author addressed 33 highly priced and moderately priced stock-keeping units from 1,432 items and test several inventory policies. Next, the author applied combinations of inventory models, testing probabilistic hybrid inventory models.

The study finds that medical supplies, equipment, and medications are indispensable for a quality healthcare system. Hence, healthcare supply chain management (SCM) professionals must adopt basic inventory cost-reduction strategies, implementing inventory software functionalities effectively and efficiently. This study shows that probabilistic hybrid inventory techniques in healthcare SCM effectively determine an optimal stocking level, significantly reducing costs.

This study analyzes data from primary care and (to some extent) secondary care institutions. Although tertiary and quaternary care systems do not represent a large portion of the healthcare system, future research should also address these highly specialized organizations' needs.

This study proposes practical strategies to help continuously improve supply chain operations in healthcare organizations worldwide.

This study suggests probabilistic hybrid inventory models as empirically proven solutions for evaluating stock-keeping units in the healthcare sector. In doing so, the study provides a new healthcare supply chain approach, proposing a modified taxonomy of inventory models.

Present for more than 20 years, 3D food printing (3DFP) technology has not experienced the same widespread adoption as its non-food counterparts. It is believed that relevant business models are crucial for its expansion. The purpose of this study is to identify the dominant prototypical business models and patterns in the 3DFP industry. The knowledge gained could be used to provide directions for business model innovation in this industry.

The authors established a business model framework and used it to analyse the identified 3DFP manufacturers. The authors qualitatively identified the market’s prototypical business models and used agglomerative hierarchical clustering to extract further patterns.

All identified 3DFP businesses use the prototypical business model of selling ownership of physical assets, with some variations. Low-cost 3D food printers for private usage and dedicated 3D food printers for small-scale food producers are the two primary patterns identified. Furthermore, several benefits of 3DFP technology are not being used, and the identified manufacturers are barely present in high-revenue markets, which prevents them from driving technological innovation forward.

The extracted patterns can be used by the companies within the 3DFP industry and even in other additive manufacturing segments to reflect upon, refine or renew their business model. Some directions for business model innovation in this industry are provided.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first quantitative study to give an account of the current 3DFP business models and their possible evolution. This study also contributes to the business model patterns methodological development.

Coal is a critical global energy source, and fluctuations in its price significantly impact related enterprises' profitability. This study aims to develop a robust model for predicting the coal price index to enhance coal purchase strategies for coal-consuming enterprises and provide crucial information for global carbon emission reduction.

The proposed coal price forecasting system combines data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. It addresses the challenge of merging low-resolution and high-resolution data by adaptively combining both types of data and filling in missing gaps through interpolation for internal missing data and self-supervision for initiate/terminal missing data. The system employs self-supervised learning to complete the filling of complex missing data.

The ensemble model, which combines long short-term memory, XGBoost and support vector regression, demonstrated the best prediction performance among the tested models. It exhibited superior accuracy and stability across multiple indices in two datasets, namely the Bohai-Rim steam-coal price index and coal daily settlement price.

The proposed coal price forecasting system stands out as it integrates data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. Moreover, the system pioneers the use of self-supervised learning for filling in complex missing data, contributing to its originality and effectiveness.