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The purpose of this paper is to study the market efficiency, unbiasedness and the direction of causality among four agricultural commodity futures contracts for a forecasting horizon of 28 days, 56 days and 84 days which are traded at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd.

To analyse the efficiency of futures market in Indian scenario, we focus on maize, chickpea, soybean and wheat which are among the most important agricultural commodities traded in India. In the first step, Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and nonparametric Phillips-Perron approaches have been used to examine the stationarity of all futures and spot price series. After testing the presence of cointegration in futures and spot series using Johansen’s Cointegration approach, the joint restrictions of β ₀=0, β ₁=1 and β ₁=1 on the cointegrating vectors were imposed to test whether the futures price is an unbiased predictor of spot at contract maturity. In the next step, linear Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the nonparametric Diks and Panchenko (2006) causality tests were applied to examine the direction of causality. Finally, nonlinear test were applied on the vector error correction model (VECM) residuals to investigate whether any remaining causality is strictly nonlinear in nature.

The results of cointegration tests between futures and spot prices of the selected agricultural commodities indicated a long term relationship do exist in three out of four futures contracts. However, the Wald tests results on the cointegrating vectors indicate markets as inefficient and biased. Further, analysis of short-term relationship using alternate tests of causality do not give consistent results for same commodity series indicating that results may vary due to alternate measures and specifications. Finally, if we consider the results of Diks-Panchenko test on the filtered VECM-residuals, results provide evidence that if cointegration is taken into account; neither spot nor future leads or lags the other consistently.

The results are based on the sample of four agricultural futures commodity contracts. The study can be extended to a larger sample of contracts and relative efficiency of each contract can be explored.

There are very few studies that have explored the efficiency, unbiasedness and direction of causality using both linear and nonlinear techniques for Indian agriculture commodity futures market for different forecasting horizons.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causality effects between financial development and economic growth for South African data spanning over the period of 1992-2013.

This study makes the use of the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) approach which allows for threshold error-correction (TEC) modeling and Granger causality analysis between the variables. In carrying out an empirical analysis, the author uses six measures of the financial development variables against gross domestic per capita, that is, three measures which proxy banking activity and another three proxies for stock market development.

The empirical results generally indicate an abrupt asymmetric cointegration relationship between banking activity and economic growth, on the one hand, and a smooth cointegration relationship between stock market activity and economic growth, on the other hand. Moreover, causality analysis generally reveals that while banking activity tends to Granger cause economic growth, stock market activity is, however, caused by economic growth increase.

This study contributes to the literature by examining asymmetries in the cointegration and causality relations by using both banking and stock market proxies against economic growth for the South African economy.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze cointegration and causality relationships between spot and futures markets in Turkish foreign‐exchange markets.

The research employs Bounds cointegration test and Toda‐Yamamoto causality test to detect a possible risk transmission between spot and futures markets. Time series of Turkish spot and futures foreign‐exchange markets from January 2, 2006 to March 25, 2008 on a daily basis are used for empirical analysis.

The empirical tests suggest that there is unidirectional causality running from future exchange‐rate market to spot market implying that foreign‐exchange markets have informational efficiency in Turkey.

The paper has originality in both employing Bounds test and Toda‐Yamamoto test to examine the relationship between spots and derivative markets, and in being one of the first empirical papers examining Turkish futures markets. In addition, the paper presents a guide on how Bounds and Toda‐Yamamoto tests can be applied to detect interactions among markets without data stationarity.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context.

The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality.

Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis.

The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc.

This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.

This paper aims to examine the causal relationship between liquefied petroleum gas consumption and economic growth in Cameroon over the period from 1975 to 2016.

The methodology of this study is based on the unit root, cointegration and causality tests. Cointegration is performed with both Johansen and autoregressive distributed lag bounds approach, while causality is done with the Granger test based on the error correction model (ECM) and Toda-Yamamoto procedure.

The cointegration methods confirm the existence of a level relationship, whereas the causal tests of the ECM reveal the existence of a short-run unidirectional causal relationship ranging from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption to economic growth and a bidirectional causal relationship between long-term and high-causality variables. With the Toda-Yamamoto procedure, unidirectional causality is found to run from economic growth to liquefied petroleum gas consumption.

These findings imply that an increase in liquefied petroleum gas consumption leads to an increase in economic growth. As a result, supporting energy efficiency policies that aim to reduce liquefied petroleum gas consumption is not an option for Cameroon. Given that LPG consumption shares are still low in Cameroon, the government ought, thus, to increase LPG subsidization, vulgarize and favor policies aimed at encouraging LPG consumption to increase LPG deposits nationwide. This would help increase LPG consumption and consequently could increase economic growth in Cameroon.

LPG is a fossil fuel and is the less GHG emitter and it is considered as a modern source of energy for cooking in Cameroon households. It scarcity calls on energy policymakers to question the influence LPG consumption could have on economic growth in the short- and long-run. Thus, this paper could contribute to solving the issue of deforestation in Cameroon, especially in the Sahel zone; through the substitution of firewood consumption by LPG consumption in households.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium on the time deposit rates of banks in the dual banking system in Malaysia.

The data consists of 1-, 6- and 12-month average time deposit rates of conventional and Islamic banks over the period of January 2000 to June 2017. The cointegration methodologies are used to explore links between the time deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium. The causality tests to test causality linkages between pairs of variables are also applied. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition based on the error correction model is conducted to analyse the impact of variables variation on the deposit rates.

The results show the presence of two cointegration vectors in the deposit rates, real rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic bank rates. Causality tests reveal that deposit rates are caused by inflation and risk premium in a one-way causality. The results of variance decomposition highlight the importance of inflation and risk premium in explaining the variations in the bank deposit rates. For the conventional bank, inflation shocks play the most important role in explaining the movements of the deposit rates. In Islamic banks, the major determinant’s largest influence is the risk premium. Between the two bank rates, Islamic bank rates receive more influence from the explanatory variables in the long-run compared to conventional bank rates. The real rates have no noticeable effect on the variance of time deposit rates for both banks.

This study presents new evidence on the relationship between time deposit rates and the three explanatory variables, which are the real interest rates, inflation and risk premium, for both conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. The dual banking system allows exploring the similarities and differences between conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia in terms of the linkages between the variables.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries over the period 1980-2012. It also investigates whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income.

In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the middle-income countries and the low-income countries. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine this linkage. The Granger causality test for the middle-income countries was conducted within a vector-error correction mechanism framework; while that of the low-income countries was conducted within a vector autoregressions framework.

The results for the middle-income countries’ panel show that there is a uni-directional causal flow from GDP to FDI, and not vice versa. However, for the low-income countries’ panel, there was no evidence of causality in either direction. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries.

Methodology applied in this study is a bivariate framework which is likely to suffer from the omission of variable bias (Odhiambo, 2008, 2011). Second, the Granger causality analysis employed in this only investigates the direction of causality and whether each variable can be used to explain another, but does not directly test for the mechanisms through which FDI leads to economic growth and economic growth leads to FDI.

Future studies may include a third variable such as domestic savings, exports, or financial development in a trivariate or multivariate panel causality model. A more complete analysis which seeks to explain the channels through which FDI impacts growth is suggested for future studies. Lastly, sector level analysis will help policy makers draft effective industrial policies, which can guide allocation of incentives.

The results of this study support the Growth-led FDI hypothesis, but not the FDI-led growth hypothesis. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region and into Southern Africa, and not vice versa. This implies that the recent high economic growth rates that have been recorded in some of the SADC countries, especially the middle-income countries, have led to a massive inflow of FDI into this region.

At the regional level, SADC as a regional bloc has been actively pursuing policies and strategies aimed at attracting FDI into the region. Despite the important role of FDI in economic development, and the increase in FDI inflows into SADC countries in particular, there is a significant dearth of literature on the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth. The study used the recent panel-data analysis methods to examine the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in SADC countries.

This study examines the long-term and causal relationship among foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, trade openness and economic growth from India.

This study has used annual time series data from the period 1985–2018 and applied the Johansen cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR) model.

The results of Johansen's cointegration confirm no long-term relationship among all the above three variables. Further, the results of VAR Granger causality indicate that FDI causes economic growth and economic growth causes FDI, which confirms the bi-directional causality. In contrast, this study found that there is no bi-directional causality between trade openness and economic growth.

Through this study, the government could take the decisions related to foreign investment after adopting more trade openness because the study results revealed that if India follows more trade openness, then how FDI will flow (upward and downward). With impulse analysis, researchers, government and policymakers take the decision-related FDI inflows for the forthcoming ten years after 2018.

This study has found the most exciting results from the impulse functions of FDI inflows, trade openness and economic growth, which showed the situation of these three variables as increase and decrease in the forthcoming ten years.

The research aims to study the regression, cointegration and causality between the construction sector (CS) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), considering other variables in the study such as interest rate, taxation, industry sector, investment and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which are analyzed through unique panel models. The study was conducted in Turkey and the ten other countries of the European Union (EU) from 1988 to 2019.

Regression, cointegration and causality methods were used to investigate the different types of relationships between variables in the models. Data were obtained from official databases and the study contains four main stages, which are explained in detail in the methodology section.

The study used the analysis methods of regression, cointegration and causality tests and found that the CS and GDP have long-run estimates and the relationship between the two for different countries is negative in a two-way direction. Results are detailed in the analysis section.

No data were available for the variables before 1988 for most countries, which led to a limited number of observations and issues in statistical analysis methods.

Previously, only input and output tables were used in the analysis. The impact of interest rate, taxation, investment and FDI has not been analyzed. Key variables are very relevant for Turkey, which suffers from chronical inflation and taxation regimes. These show variability with the EU countries for comparative analysis and have not been explored to date, remaining as a major gap for the construction industry. No attempts were made to use regression, cointegration and causality methods with variables. These analysis methods enable an understanding of the differences in variance (heteroscedasticity) and the presence of cross-sectional dependence (CSD), both critical for the reliability of the comparison of data sets and analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to determine cause and effect relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (gross domestic product (GDP) taken as proxy) for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS nations) individually for the period 1992-2013. Also, the study tries to explore the reasons behind the linkage between FDI and GDP by estimating a linear regression model consisting of both macro-economic and institutional variables.

Johansen cointegration technique followed by vector error correction model (VECM) and standard Granger causality test are employed to investigate the causal linkage between FDI and GDP. To delve into the reasons behind this linkage, an ordinary least square (OLS) technique is also applied to test the linear regression model consisting of net FDI inflows as dependent variable and nine macro- economic and institutional variables. Residual diagnostics is also conducted using Breusch-Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier test for diagnosing the problem of serial correlation, Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test for examining heteroskedasticity and Jarque Bera test for verifying the normality of residuals.

The Johansen cointegration result establishes a single cointegrating vector (long run relationship) between FDI and GDP for India, China and Brazil. After proving a cointegration, VECM results revealed that there exists unidirectional long run causality running from GDP to FDI in case of Brazil, India and China. Also, it is confirmed that there exists short run causality between FDI and GDP in China, i.e. the past lags of FDI jointly impact the value of GDP. However, for Russia and South Africa, where there is no cointegration in the long run, standard Granger causality test is conducted which reveals that in both the nations, FDI and GDP are independent of one another. The results of OLS technique reveal different country-specific factors causing this linkage between FDI inflows and economic growth.

Various researchers in the past have examined this issue of linkage between FDI and GDP in the context of various developing or developed nations. This reveals a gap in the existing literature pertaining to this causal linkage in the context of the BRICS. Thus, this study fills this gap by analyzing not just this causal nexus with the help of VECM and Granger causality techniques but also tries to explore further the reasons for such strong/weak/no link with the help of fitting a regression model which comprises of both macro-economic and institutional country-specific variables influencing this causation.