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1 – 10 of over 17000Gökçe Tomrukçu and Touraj Ashrafian
The residential buildings sector has a high priority in the climate change adaptation process due to significant CO2 emissions, high energy consumption and negative environmental…
Abstract
Purpose
The residential buildings sector has a high priority in the climate change adaptation process due to significant CO2 emissions, high energy consumption and negative environmental impacts. The article investigates how, conversely speaking, the residential buildings will be affected by climate change, and how to improve existing structures and support long-term decisions.
Design/methodology/approach
The climate dataset was created using the scenarios determined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and this was used in the study. Different building envelope and Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems scenarios have been developed and simulated. Then, the best scenario was determined with comparative results, and recommendations were developed.
Findings
The findings reveal that future temperature-increase will significantly impact buildings' cooling and heating energy use. As the outdoor air temperatures increase due to climate change, the heating loads of the buildings decrease, and the cooling loads increase significantly. While the heating energy consumption of the house was calculated at 170.85 kWh/m2 in 2020, this value shall decrease significantly to 115.01 kWh/m2 in 2080. On the other hand, the cooling energy doubled between 2020 and 2080 and reached 106.95 kWh/m2 from 53.14 kWh/m2 measured in 2020.
Originality/value
Single-family houses constitute a significant proportion of the building stock. An in-depth analysis of such a building type is necessary to cope with the devastating consequences of climate change. The study developed and scrutinised energy performance improvement scenarios to define the climate change adaptation process' impact and proper procedure. The study is trying to create a strategy to increase the climate resistance capabilities of buildings and fill the gaps in this regard.
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Fasil Ejigu Eregno, Chong‐Yu Xu and Nils‐Otto Kitterød
Recent advances in hydrological impact studies point that the response of specific catchments to climate change scenario using a single model approach is questionable. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
Recent advances in hydrological impact studies point that the response of specific catchments to climate change scenario using a single model approach is questionable. This study was aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on three river basins in China, Ethiopia and Norway using WASMOD and HBV hydrological models.
Design/methodology/approach
First, hydrological models' parameters were determined using current hydro‐climatic data inputs. Second, the historical time series of climatic data was adjusted according to the climate change scenarios. Third, the hydrological characteristics of the catchments under the adjusted climatic conditions were simulated using the calibrated hydrological models. Finally, comparisons of the model simulations of the current and possible future hydrological characteristics were performed. Responses were evaluated in terms of runoff, actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture change for incremental precipitation and temperature change scenarios.
Findings
From the results obtained, it can be inferred that two equally well calibrated models gave different hydrological response to hypothetical climatic scenarios. The authors' findings support the concern that climate change analysis using lumped hydrological models may lead to unreliable conclusions.
Practical implications
Extrapolation of driving forces (temperature and precipitation) beyond the range of parameter calibration yields unreliable response. It is beyond the scope of this study to reduce this model ambiguity, but reduction of uncertainty is a challenge for further research.
Originality/value
The research was conducted based on the primary time series data using the existing two hydrological models to test the magnitude differences one can expect when using different hydrological models to simulate hydrological response of climate changes in different climate zones.
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Iman Hesam Arefi, Mehri Saffari and Rooholla Moradi
The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran.
Design/methodology/approach
Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production.
Findings
The results showed that CO2 had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO2 enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield.
Originality/value
The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.
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Marian Leimbach, Maryse Labriet, Markus Bonsch, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Amit Kanudia, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Alexander Popp and David Klein
Bioenergy is a key component of climate change mitigation strategies aiming at low stabilization. Its versatility and capacity to generate negative emissions when combined with…
Abstract
Purpose
Bioenergy is a key component of climate change mitigation strategies aiming at low stabilization. Its versatility and capacity to generate negative emissions when combined with carbon capture and storage add degrees of freedom to the timing of emission reductions. This paper aims to explore the robustness of a bioenergy-based mitigation strategy by addressing several dimensions of uncertainty on biomass potential, bioenergy use and induced land use change emissions.
Design/methodology/approach
Different mitigation scenarios were explored by two different energy-economy optimization models coupled to the same land use model, which provides a common basis for the second generation bioenergy dynamics in the two energy-economy models.
Findings
Using bioenergy is found to be a robust mitigation strategy as demonstrated by high biomass shares in primary energy demand in both models and in all mitigation scenarios.
Practical implications
A variety of possible storylines about future uses of biomass exist. The comparison of the technology choices preferred by the applied models helps understand how future emission reductions can be achieved under alternative storylines.
Originality/value
The presented comparison-based assessment goes beyond other comparison studies because both energy-economy models are coupled to the same land use model.
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Paul Chinowsky, Amy Schweikert, Gordon Hughes, Carolyn S. Hayles, Niko Strzepek, Kenneth Strzepek and Michael Westphal
The purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the built environment in four Northern Asian countries. The impact on roads and buildings…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the built environment in four Northern Asian countries. The impact on roads and buildings infrastructure in China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia were considered during the decades 2030, 2050 and 2090.
Design/methodology/approach
The study is based on a stressor-response approach, where using the analysis of 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios, projections for impacts from flooding events, precipitation amounts and temperature were determined. The cost of the impacts, based on both maintenance and new construction considerations, were then determined. “Adapt” and “No Adapt” scenarios were incorporated to predict potential costs in each era.
Findings
Mongolia is vulnerable under the majority of scenarios and faces the greatest opportunity cost in terms of potential loss to enhancing the road stock. China is also vulnerable, but the extent of this vulnerability varies widely based on the climate scenarios. Japan is primarily vulnerable to road stock impacts, although some scenarios indicate buildings vulnerability. South Korea appears to have the least vulnerability but could still face $1 billion annual costs from climate change impacts.
Practical implications
Results indicate the need for proactive policy planning to avoid costly impacts later in the century.
Originality/value
The study illustrates the diverse affects that may occur under climate change scenarios and the potential benefit gained from understanding and planning for the projected climate impacts on the built environment.
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Mark Mulligan and Sophie Burke
This paper looks at the potential implications of land use and climate change for replenishment of the five aquifers which lie beneath the Upper Guadiana catchment in central…
Abstract
This paper looks at the potential implications of land use and climate change for replenishment of the five aquifers which lie beneath the Upper Guadiana catchment in central Spain. The impacts of scenarios for climate and land use change on groundwater recharge are explored using a physically based hydrological model. (Research is the downward flux of water from the base of the root zone, beyond which water is no longer available for evapotranspiration and forms part of the groundwater resource.) The model is integrated for a series of climate change scenarios spanning the range of predictions from general circulation models. Aquifer replenishment through recharge from the main four cover types is examined for each scenario and the implications for groundwater resources are examined. These climate scenarios are then coupled with a scenario for change in irrigated land use in the Guadiana derived from a cellular automata model based on historical change. The implications of coupled climate and land use change are discussed. The results indicate that current climatic variability has greater impacts on groundwater recharge than a number of extreme scenarios for climatic change. Although the impact of the land use change scenario is greater than that of the climate change scenarios, it is still significantly less than current vairability and represents a relatively small change at the catchment scale. This change is too small to significantly affect groundwater resources but may impact surface flows.
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Tarek Bouregaa and Mohamed Fenni
The purpose of this paper is to assess the inter-seasonal temperature and precipitation changes in Setif high plains region under future greenhouse gas emissions, by using four…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess the inter-seasonal temperature and precipitation changes in Setif high plains region under future greenhouse gas emissions, by using four general circulation models (GCMs) output data between three time slices of twenty-first century. The objective is to show the vulnerability of the region and the strategy of adaptation to these changes.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates likely changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation over Setif high plains region (North East of Algeria) between three time slices: 2025, 2050 and 2075. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. MAGICC-SCENGEN 5.3v.2 was used as a tool for downscaling the four selected GCMs output data. The vulnerability of the region, coupled with the possible impacts climate change, stresses the need for adaptive strategies in key sectors in the region for the long term sustainable development.
Findings
The results for change in seasonal temperature indicate a general warming under the two scenarios till the year 2075.The results of GFDLCM21 and GFDLCM20 show a general reduction of spring and autumn precipitations and an increase in winter and summer. BCCRBCM2 predicts a decrease in winter, spring and summer precipitations and an increase in autumn. Climate change, as well as increases in climate variability, will alter precipitation, temperature and evaporation regimes, and will increase the vulnerability of Setif high plains to changes in hydrological cycles. Climate and weather forecasting coupled with biotechnological advances in improving crop yields and tolerances to aridity, is likely to bring significant payoffs for strategy of adaptation in the field of agricultural water management.
Originality/value
This work is one of the first to study inter-seasonal temperature and precipitation changes under global warming over the region, and suggest some adaptive strategies to limit the effect of these changes.
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Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…
Abstract
Purpose
Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.
Findings
The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.
Practical implications
As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.
Originality/value
The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.
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Shudong Zhou, Wenkui Zhou, Guanghua Lin, Jing Chen, Tong Jiang and Man Li
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of future climate change and the corresponding adaptation activities on grain production and its regional distribution in China.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of future climate change and the corresponding adaptation activities on grain production and its regional distribution in China.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applied the Chinese Agricultural Policy Analysis model, in combination with the findings from agronomic literature with highly detailed agricultural census data, to conduct equilibrium analysis under alternative impact (seasonal drought and climate warming) scenarios and adaptation scenarios (promoting water-saving irrigation, introducing new varieties, and the integrated) associated with climate change.
Findings
Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting yield reduction will incur substantial losses to China’s grain production (by ~8 percent at a national scale). The application of water saving techniques can be an effective solution to seasonal drought. Introducing new varieties will increase the combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production.
Research limitations/implications
Simulation results indicate that climate change-induced seasonal drought and the resulting sown area reduction will incur substantial losses to China’s grain production by approximately 8 percent, despite farmers’ adaptation activities of switching from water use-intensive crops to drought-tolerant crops to mitigate this negative effect. The application of water saving techniques is an effective solution to seasonal drought; it can lead to a nationwide increase in the sown area by 3.48 percent and in the grain production by 4.15 percent. Introducing new varieties will increase grain outputs and change the spatial distribution of crop production across the country. The combination of promoting water-saving irrigation and new variety adoption will increase the national grain production by 19.6 percent, and thus constitute an effective approach to offsetting the negative effects of climate change on grain production.
Originality/value
Results from this study provide practical implications formulate strategies in response to climate change. Central government should reinforce the policies such as new varieties promotion and improve the subsidy method to guide the introduction of new varieties.
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The purpose of the paper is to present a scenario‐based approach to river basin planning, and demonstrate how land‐use planning can be utilised as a strong measure in meeting the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to present a scenario‐based approach to river basin planning, and demonstrate how land‐use planning can be utilised as a strong measure in meeting the climate change challenges with new precipitation patterns during the current century.
Design/methodology/approach
The current research takes a scenario‐based approach to river basin planning. A modelling framework is defined to assess the effects of active spatial planning to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change in river basin management. In total, three models are included in the framework: a land‐use model, a runoff model, and a flooding screening model.
Findings
The research has demonstrated the advantages of using models and scenarios to assess the effects of climate change in river basin management, and how active spatial planning – in the current example afforestation – can mitigate negative consequences of climate change.
Research limitations/implications
The current research demonstrates how to combine models from different fields into one integrated model for impact assessment.
Practical implications
The developed methodology will assist river basin managers to assess the effects of river basin management plans.
Social implications
The consequences of climate change are mainstream topics discussed by most citizens and results from the models can facilitate a qualified debate.
Originality/value
The paper analyses the feasibility of using active spatial planning to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change, such as flooding along rivers. This work is original, as no such analysis has been carried out before.
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