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Purpose – Emissions trading is often heralded as an efficient approach to environmental regulation. In the mid-90s Communities for a Better Environment (CBE), a Los Angeles-based advocacy organization, raised concerns that emissions trading in the South Coast Air Basin, the most polluted region in Southern California, would result in environmental injustice. The organizations concerns received mixed responses from regulators. Historical analysis is used to assess the clash between emissions trading and environmental justice (EJ).

Methodology/approach – Emissions trading and EJ arose side by side between the 1960s and the 1990s, yet they disagree on how to clean the air. Historical analysis of legal documents, presidential addresses, letters, working papers, reports, and the like offers a better understanding of the development of emissions trading and EJ, and their intersection in environmental policy.

Findings – Emissions trading was grafted onto Clean Air Act policies not inherently designed for their incorporation. As a result, emissions trading came into direct philosophical opposition with EJ as political pressures calling for both economically efficient antiregulatory-ism and environmental equity forced their intersection. Formally, regional and national government accepted EJ as part of law. However, in principle, emissions trading undermined this acceptance. As a result, CBE could not easily win or explicitly lose its battle against emissions trading.

Originality/value of paper – Previous work on the relationship between emissions trading and EJ tend to focus on legal analysis and normative implications of emissions trading. Putting emissions trading and environment justice into historical perspective helps to illuminate larger questions about EJ activism and policy. Also, as California, the United States, and Europe turn to emissions trading to combat not only air pollution but also climate change, important lessons can be learned from the histories and collision of emissions trading and EJ.

This study examines whether the 38 electric utility firms owning the 110 plants targeted by the 1990 Clean Air Act (CAA) made adequate pollution disclosures to inform the stakeholders whether they met the pollution emission requirements of the Act by the start of its first phase. First, it evaluates pollution emissions of the targeted plans at the start of the first phase of the Act, i.e. 1995. Then, it evaluates whether pollution disclosures of these firms improved leading up to the first phase of the Act. This evaluation is done by comparing pollution disclosures for the start of the first phase, i.e. 1995, with the year the CAA was enacted, i.e. 1990. Pollution emission data are obtained from the Department of Energy and from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and pollution disclosure data for 1989, 1990 and 1995 are obtained from the annual reports and 10Ks. A specifically designed content analysis technique is used to categorize pollution disclosures.

The pollution emissions results indicate that 1995 emissions are significantly lower than 1990 emissions. On an individual plant basis, the results, however, indicated that some plants reduced emissions while others used the permit system. The pollution disclosures results indicate that the 1995 pollution disclosure are comparatively lower than 1990 disclosures. The reason for high disclosures for 1990 could have been to protect the firms against potential legal cases if the requirements were not met. Once the fears of legal actions subsided, pollution disclosures were probably reduced. Lack of consistency and adequacy in pollution disclosures, however, make it difficult for stakeholders to properly evaluate their future risks.

Narrates the discussion between Juan (a corporate executive of a multinational company) and Audrey (an independent environmental consultant) when they sit next to each other on a flight. Explains, through the dialogue, some of the environmental pitfalls companies can encounter when basing operations in the USA, such as regulations relating to clean air, clean water, emissions, toxic pollutants, land use restrictions, species protection plans etc.). Makes the point that it is individuals who face civil and criminal penalties for breaking these regulations, not the company. Provides an overview of US environmental regulations and recommends that companies can avoid falling foul of the law through education, training and taking legal advice. Mentions ISO 14000 and 14001 environmental standards as a potential way forward, although they do not yet carry any weight under US law.

This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change.

Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR.

Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study’s perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change.

CR’s emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for “human prosperity”. However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field.

The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change.

Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study’s consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study’s presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons.

Without doubt, the greatest single act of conservation for Britain's cities has been the passing of the Clean Air Act. Buildings that are cleaned and restored today will stay clean and should be pleasing to look at in the 21st century.