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Article
Publication date: 17 August 2018

Umberto Filotto, Claudio Giannotti, Gianluca Mattarocci and Xenia Scimone

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic condition and real estate price trend on the amount of residential loan.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic condition and real estate price trend on the amount of residential loan.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper using a sample of 16 European Countries for the time period 2007–2015 evaluates the impact of change in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the inflation rate on the amount of residential loans. The analysis is performed by using a vector autoregressive (VAR) and generalized VAR approach for the full sample and for each country considered.

Findings

For a short-term horizon, shocks to mortgages, the house price index (HPI) and the GDP have a positive effect on the GDP, a shock to the amount of mortgages has a positive effect on the mortgage supply and a shock to the GDP has a negative effect on HPI. The main results for the long-term horizon are that a GDP shock has a positive and persistent effect on the amount of mortgages, a shock to HPI has a negative and persistent effect on mortgages and a shock to the amount of mortgages seems to have no persistent effect on the GDP or the HPI. Moreover, the analysis shows that a spillover risk among countries exists and a GDP shock in a European area has an effect on the GDP, real estate prices and residential mortgages in almost all European countries.

Practical implications

Results obtained show that both macroeconomic and housing prices shocks matter for the real estate lending and the effect are different in the short- and in the medium–long-term horizon. Results are also different country by country and they are affected by the level of financial development of the country.

Originality/value

The paper studies a lending crisis period and evaluates for the European market the impact of shock on macro-variables for mortgages focusing the attention for the first time only on residential mortgages.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 36 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 17 July 2009

Claudio Giannotti and Gianluca Mattarocci

The purpose of this paper is to define an approach useful to evaluate real estate funds on the specific characteristics of the Italian market and on the basis of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to define an approach useful to evaluate real estate funds on the specific characteristics of the Italian market and on the basis of international best practices.

Design/methodology/approach

The first step is to identify specific factors and portfolio construction choices that could impact directly on the variability of inflows and outflows related to real estate fund. The analysis is realised constructing standard measures of financial and downside risk and identifying a panel model that allows to explain risk measure dynamics on the basis of some investments and portfolio characteristics. Results obtained are tested with an out of sample procedure in order to evaluate the type of misclassification risk related to each model. The second step is to evaluate the impact of debt policy on the risk assumed by a real estate funds. After an analysis of debt sustainability for each real estate unit on the basis of deadlines and amount of flows related to each investment, the study proposed looks directly at the debt policy of listed real estate funds: the analysis is aimed to evaluate the relationship between leverage choice and inflows/outflows variability and the coherence between declared results and expected results for high‐leveraged funds respect to the others.

Findings

The results stemming from the use of a real estate database supplied by Beni Stabili Gestioni Società di Gestione del Risparmio showed that the portfolio's construction choice impacts strongly on the variability of results of a real estate fund. The strict linkage between characteristics of debt and type of property makes difficult to evaluate the additional risk related to debt choice but on the basis of Italian market data are possible to point out the higher difficulties for high‐leveraged funds to achieve the result communicated to the market (the so‐called target IRR).

Originality/value

The value added of the paper is to study the relevance of specific risk factors respect to portfolio's ones in the evaluation of risk exposure for a real estate portfolio and the impact of the leverage choices on the variability of inflows and outflows related to the real estate investments.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 24 October 2008

Claudio Giannotti and Gianluca Mattarocci

In real estate industry, managers' choices in portfolio construction impact directly on the performance of real estate fund. Looking at the literature, real estate…

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1412

Abstract

Purpose

In real estate industry, managers' choices in portfolio construction impact directly on the performance of real estate fund. Looking at the literature, real estate diversification criteria are related to tenants' characteristics, to endogenous and exogenous risk and to financial choices. The aim of the paper is to study the role of different risk profiles in the investment selection and in the construction of an efficient real estate portfolio.

Design/methodology/approach

The first step is to find out an investment selection model based on the main risk factors. The aim was to check the ability of qualitative criteria (tenant, exogenous, endogenous and financial risks) to identify ex ante the best investment opportunities. The observation of the portfolios' composition on the efficient frontier and the proximity of individual property to the efficient frontier point out which risk factors are more important. The second step is to define a model to construct a portfolio, with non correlated investments, based on the main risk factors. This ability was tested by comparing the classifications made according to quality criteria, which can potentially be used ex ante to construct a diversified portfolio, with the results of cluster analysis. The results from the cluster analysis, free from quality profiles, are therefore considered as the best diversification strategy.

Findings

The results stemming from the use of a real estate database supplied by Fimit SGR (Unicredit banking group) showed that an ex ante study of risk profiles can help to identify those investment opportunities which are more or less near to the efficient frontier, although there is no prevailing criterion to identify a portfolio able to maximise investment diversification benefits. To identify more efficient portfolio is necessary to define an evaluation approach that considers simultaneously different risk profiles of real estate investments.

Originality/value

The paper considers the Italian market, a young market for institutional real estate investments characterised by high growing opportunities. The value added of the paper is to study the relationship of different real estate specific risks considered in literature (tenant risk, endogenous and exogenous risk) and financing choices in order to define a more complete model to evaluate real estate portfolios.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 1 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 27 April 2010

Claudio Giannotti, Gianluca Mattarocci and Luca Spinelli

The purpose of the paper is to compare the role of the sector and geographical features in explaining the performance of a hotel structure.

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1247

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to compare the role of the sector and geographical features in explaining the performance of a hotel structure.

Design methodology/approach

The paper constructs a measure of net profit for available room (GOPPAR) for a representative sample of Italian hotels and uses a constrained linear regression model in order to identify the role of sectoral and geographical features. The analysis is released adopting a multiple cross sectional approach and considering not only the average role of sectoral and geographic characteristic, but also the time trend of relation inspected.

Findings

Results obtained show that the overall national trend is not significant for explaining the performance of each hotel. Considering geographical and sectoral features, the first of these explain better the disalignment of the performance respect to the national average.

Research limitations/implications

The paper proposes an analysis of the hotel industry using a standard geo‐sectoral classification. More data about the characteristics of the firms considered in the sample could allow to define a more detailed model that consider also other hotel features that could impact on the demand and supply of the service.

Practical implications

Results could be useful for the hotel chains and for institutional investors specialized in the hotel sector, in order to define a first guideline for the property selection process and diversification portfolio strategy.

Originality/value

The paper represents the first work that analyse the role of regional and sectoral factors in explaining the performance of the hotel industry and supports the thesis proposed with and empirical evidence on world leading market (Italy).

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 28 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 17 May 2011

Claudio Giannotti, Gianluca Mattarocci and Luca Spinelli

The purpose of this paper is to study whether geographic and sector diversification allow for a significant reduction in the risk exposure of a portfolio of hotel…

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1492

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study whether geographic and sector diversification allow for a significant reduction in the risk exposure of a portfolio of hotel investments in one of the major tourist markets, the Italian market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper evaluates the benefits related to a Markowitz diversification approach for the construction of a specialised portfolio in the hotel real estate market. The portfolio analysis considers the degree of efficiency of each portfolio, the type of diversification adopted by a more efficient portfolio, the persistence of results over time and the impact of diversification constraints.

Findings

The results demonstrate that, while standard geographic and sector diversification allow for good results, the more efficient portfolios are more concentrated. The trade‐off is worse if some concentration constraints are established, but the portfolios identified are characterised by higher performance persistence.

Research limitations/implications

The analysis only considers high‐quality hotels in the Italian market. Unfortunately, some information on costs is not as detailed as would be desired. The availability of a more complete database could increase the significance of the results obtained.

Practical implications

The results are relevant for constructing all hotels' portfolios, like those managed by a real estate fund manager, in order to define the type and degree of diversification that allow for minimal risk exposure.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to apply the Markowitz theory to the Italian hotel industry in order to identify the best diversification criteria.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

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Article
Publication date: 8 March 2011

Claudio Giannotti, Lucia Gibilaro and Gianluca Mattarocci

The purpose of this paper is to compare banks specialised on real estate lending with the overall market in order to the test if they are more or less exposed to liquidity risk.

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1912

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare banks specialised on real estate lending with the overall market in order to the test if they are more or less exposed to liquidity risk.

Design/methodology/approach

Following the approach proposed by the Basel Committee in order to evaluate the bank liquidity exposure, the paper compares the value of these measures between the real estate lending banks (REBs) and all other banks for the Italian market. A panel regression analysis is also performed in order to identify the main drivers of the liquidity risk measures for the two types of banks.

Findings

The paper finds that no significant differences exist between REBs and the overall system if liquidity risk measures used by regulators in order to supervise the banking system are taken into account. Normally liquidity exposure by this type of bank is significantly affected by interbank market dynamics.

Research limitations/implications

The paper considers only one market in order to test the fitness of the regulatory approach for the REBs and does not take into account the off balance sheet exposure.

Practical implications

Even if REBs suffer from a misalignment between the asset and liability duration, the supervisory authority selects measures that do not penalise them.

Originality/value

The paper represents one of the first empirical analyses on the impact of regulatory requirements for liquidity management by the Basel Committee in order to test if the rules proposed could penalise banks specialised in real estate loans.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 29 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 23 October 2009

Claudio Giannotti and Lucia Gibilaro

The minimization of financial losses and costs stemming from the credit recovery process is strictly connected with the time necessary to complete the procedure: in real…

Abstract

Purpose

The minimization of financial losses and costs stemming from the credit recovery process is strictly connected with the time necessary to complete the procedure: in real estate credits, it depends on the liquidity and the efficiency of the enforcement procedures. The purpose of this paper is to test the relevance of the economic cycle in Italy on the determinants of the recovery process both at national and regional level.

Design/methodology/approach

The first step is to identify the determinants of the real estate loans recovery process duration by the means of the review of the existing literature. The second step develops an empirical analysis to appraise the relevance of the economic cycle on the liquidity of the real estate market and efficiency of real estate enforcement proceedings. The relevance of the economic cycle is verified through, first, a correlation analysis of the selected indexes with the national and regional gross domestic product (GDP) and, second, a regression analysis of the selected indexes on the current and lagged GDP. As it concerns the liquidity of the real estate market, a turnover index is considered stratified both at sectoral and geographical level, while for the real estate enforcement procedures the paper analyzes indexes based on both the turnover of ended and filed proceedings and the pending proceedings outstanding at the year‐end.

Findings

The empirical results demonstrated that, in some sectors and geographic areas, the market liquidity is influenced by the national and the regional economic cycles, both expressed at current values and, moreover, the sign of the relationship is frequently negative. As it concerns the enforcement procedures efficiency, empirical evidence does not support the direct influence of the current or past economic cycle on it, leaving room for the relevance of the competent court specific features.

Originality/value

The paper considers the Italian market, that is featured by a moderate level of the average loan to value and, above all, by lengthiness administrative procedures. The paper contributes to the existing literature through the integrated examination of the relationship between the recovery process determinants and the national and regional economic cycles over different geographic areas.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 18 July 2008

Nick French

Downloads
299

Abstract

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Content available
Article
Publication date: 17 July 2009

Hanna Kaleva

Downloads
370

Abstract

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 12 February 2018

Paola Musile Tanzi, Elena Aruanno and Mattia Suardi

Business Model Analysis is acquiring increasing visibility in the European banking regulatory framework, following the European Banking Authority guidelines on common…

Abstract

Purpose

Business Model Analysis is acquiring increasing visibility in the European banking regulatory framework, following the European Banking Authority guidelines on common procedures and methodologies for the supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP), developed to assess business and strategic risks (EBA, 2014, 2015a, 2015b, 2015c). Starting from a selected literature review, in the paper, the authors analyse business models set up by financial intermediaries, bank and non-banks, for the distribution of investment services, first by comparing European niche players with European banking global players, and second, comparing European niche players among themselves to understand the evolution of business models for the distribution of investment services at European level. The research is supported by the Baffi–Carefin Research Centre at the Bocconi University (Italy), in collaboration with ANASF, the Italian Association of Financial Advisors (Italy).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors consider a sample of European financial players from 2009 to 2014. The authors’ focus is on France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Spain and the UK; overall the authors’ handmade data set is based on 162 annual reports. The authors follow two main questions: Do the niche players, as they are focused on the distribution of investment services, have an upper limit to profitability, compared to the global players, as risk-takers in many financial areas? How is the business model of niche players changing, facing increasing competition and regulatory pressures?

Findings

Answering the first research question, the highest net profitability is found in the niche players group; the global players, as risk-takers, achieve lower remuneration, in contrast with the risk premium theory. The results were assessed over a limited period, however, deemed in line with the company’s strategic planning horizon. Answering the second research question, the authors focus on the case of niche players, using a cluster analysis. The authors identify three different business models: most dynamic niche players, which combine investment services, insurance and welfare services, achieving the highest margins and stability; players mainly focused on asset management, whose key vulnerability is the degree of open architecture, especially in light of future MiFID 2 implementation; and players mainly focused on the creation of well-structured on-line platforms, which offer also brokerage services, thereby reducing their marginality and potentially increasing their business risk.

Research limitations/implications

Despite the limited time series, the authors’ research gives some inputs for those interested in deepening the business model analysis focus on the distribution of investment services and the business and strategic risk assessment, both for the global banks and the niche players (banks and non-banks).

Practical implications

The authors’ results could be of some interest during the strategic assessment of global banks and niche players, both adopting an internal perspective or an external one, as regulator.

Social implications

By giving some specific insights into the assessment and comparison of business and strategic risks among global and niche players, the authors’ research provides the basis for further research in the field of the distribution of investment services.

Originality/value

The originality mainly regards the business model risk perspective and the focus of the authors’ analysis: the distribution of investment services. This sector, unlike the asset management, does not have an easily recognisable group of comparables at European level, all the European countries analysed have very different business models. This research avails of an original database, that is unique to Europe.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

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