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1 – 10 of 179Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Haimo Zhang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.
Findings
The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R2 values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.
Originality/value
This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.
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Renan Ribeiro Do Prado, Pedro Antonio Boareto, Joceir Chaves and Eduardo Alves Portela Santos
The aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of using the Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) cycle, process mining (PM) and multi-criteria decision methods in…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of using the Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) cycle, process mining (PM) and multi-criteria decision methods in an integrated way so that these three elements combined result in a methodology called the Agile DMAIC cycle, which brings more agility and reliability in the execution of the Six Sigma process.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach taken by the authors in this study was to analyze the studies arising from this union of concepts and to focus on using PM tools where appropriate to accelerate the DMAIC cycle by improving the first two steps, and to test using the AHP as a decision-making process, to bring more excellent reliability in the definition of indicators.
Findings
It was indicated that there was a gain with acquiring indicators and process maps generated by PM. And through the AHP, there was a greater accuracy in determining the importance of the indicators.
Practical implications
Through the results and findings of this study, more organizations can understand the potential of integrating Six Sigma and PM. It was just developed for the first two steps of the DMAIC cycle, and it is also a replicable method for any Six Sigma project where data acquisition through mining is possible.
Originality/value
The authors develop a fully applicable and understandable methodology which can be replicated in other settings and expanded in future research.
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The aim of this paper is to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on recognition-based heuristics and their effect on investment management…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on recognition-based heuristics and their effect on investment management activities and to ascertain some substantial gaps related to them.
Design/methodology/approach
For doing research synthesis, systematic literature review approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1980–2020. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 59 studies out of 118 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioural finance domain-related explicitly to recognition-based heuristics and their effect on investment management activities.
Findings
The survey and analysis suggest investors consistently rely on the recognition-based heuristic-driven biases when trading stocks, resulting in irrational decisions, and an investment strategy constructed by implementing the recognition-based heuristics, would not result in better returns to investors on a consistent basis. Institutional investors are less likely to be affected by these name-based behavioural biases in comparison to individual investors. However, under the context of ecological rationality, recognition-based heuristics work better and sometimes dominate the classical methods. The research scholars from the behavioural finance community have highlighted that recognition-based heuristics and their impact on investment management activities are high profile areas, needed to be explored further in the field of behavioural finance. The study of recognition-based heuristic-driven biases has been found to be insufficient in the context of emerging economies like Pakistan.
Practical implications
The skilful understanding and knowledge of the recognition-based heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policy-makers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioural biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of recognition-based heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities which could be very useful for finance practitioners’ such as investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/ broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making its financial management strategies.
Originality/value
Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on recognition-based heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of recognition-based heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, and those working in the area of behavioural finance in understanding the role that recognition-based heuristics plays in investment management activities.
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Mohammed Ayoub Ledhem and Warda Moussaoui
This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.
Findings
The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.
Practical implications
This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.
Originality/value
This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.
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Ebrahim Vatan, Gholam Ali Raissi Ardali and Arash Shahin
This study aims to investigate the effects of organizational culture factors on the selection of software process development models and develops a conceptual model for selecting…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the effects of organizational culture factors on the selection of software process development models and develops a conceptual model for selecting and adopting process development models with an organizational culture approach, using 12 criteria and their sub-criteria defined in Fey and Denison’s model (12 criteria).
Design/methodology/approach
The research hypotheses were investigated using statistical analysis, and then the criteria and sub-criteria were selected based on Fey and Denison’s model and the experts’ viewpoints. Afterward, the organizational culture of the selected company was measured using the data from 2016 and 2017, based on Fey and Denison’s questionnaire. Due to the correlation between the criteria, using the decision-making trial and evaluation technique, the correlation between sub-criteria were determined, and by analytical network process method and using Super-Decision software, the process development model was preferred to the 12 common models in information systems development.
Findings
Results indicated a significant and positive effect of organizational culture factors (except the core values factor) on the selection of development models. Also, by changing the value of organizational culture, the selected process development model changed either. Sensitivity analysis performed on the sub-criteria implied that by changing and improving some sub-criteria, the organization will be ready and willing to use the agile or risk-based models such as spiral and win-win models. Concerning units where the mentioned indicators were at moderate and low limits, models such as waterfall, V-shaped and incremental worked more appropriately.
Originality/value
While many studies were performed in comparing development models and investigating their strengths and weaknesses, and the impact of organizational culture on the success of information technology projects, literature indicated that the impact of organizational sub-culture prevailing in the selection of development process models has not been investigated. In this study, new factors and indicators were addressed affecting the selection of development models with a focus on organizational culture. Correlation among the factors and indicators was also investigated and, finally, a conceptual model was proposed for proper adoption of the models and methodologies of system development.
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Guido Migliaccio and Andrea De Palma
This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real…
Abstract
Purpose
This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real estate companies divided into the three macro-regions: North, Centre and South, in the period 2011–2020. In this way, it is also possible to verify the responsiveness to the 2020 pandemic crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis uses descriptive statistics tools and the ANOVA method of analysis of variance, supplemented by the Tukey–Kramer test, to identify significant differences between the three Italian macro-regions.
Findings
The study shows the increase in profitability after the 2008 crisis, despite its reverberation in the years 2012–2013. The financial structure of companies improved almost everywhere. The pandemic had modest effects on performance.
Research limitations/implications
In the future, other indices should be considered to gain a more comprehensive view. This is a quantitative study based on financial statements data that neglects other important economic and social factors.
Practical implications
Public policies could use this study for better interventions to support the sector. In addition, internal management can compare their company's performance with the industry average to identify possible improvements.
Social implications
The research analyses an economic field that employs a large number of people, especially when considering the construction and real estate services covered by this analysis.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative analysis of industry dynamics, with comparative information that can be deduced from financial statements over the years.
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Min Wan, Mou Chen and Mihai Lungu
This paper aims to study a neural network-based fault-tolerant controller to improve the tracking control performance of an unmanned autonomous helicopter with system uncertainty…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study a neural network-based fault-tolerant controller to improve the tracking control performance of an unmanned autonomous helicopter with system uncertainty, external disturbances and sensor faults, using the prescribed performance method.
Design/methodology/approach
To ensure that the tracking error satisfies the prescribed performance, the authors adopt an error transformation function method. A control scheme based on the neural network and high-order disturbance observer is designed to guarantee the boundedness of the closed-loop system. A simulation is performed to prove the validity of the control scheme.
Findings
The developed adaptive fault-tolerant control method makes the system with sensor fault realize tracking control. The error transformation function method can effectively handle the prescribed performance requirements. Sensor fault can be regarded as a type of system uncertainty. The uncertainty can be approximated accurately using neural networks. A high-order disturbance observer can effectively suppress compound disturbances.
Originality/value
The tracking performance requirements of unmanned autonomous helicopter system are considered in the design of sensor fault-tolerant control. The inequality constraint that the output tracking error must satisfy is transformed into an unconstrained problem by introducing an error transformation function. The fault state of the velocity sensor is considered as the system uncertainty, and a neural network is used to approach the total uncertainty. Neural network estimation errors and external disturbances are treated as compound disturbances, and a high-order disturbance observer is constructed to compensate for them.
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Joseph F. Hair, Pratyush N. Sharma, Marko Sarstedt, Christian M. Ringle and Benjamin D. Liengaard
The purpose of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of equal weights estimation (sumscores) and the application of the composite equivalence index (CEI) vis-à-vis…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of equal weights estimation (sumscores) and the application of the composite equivalence index (CEI) vis-à-vis differentiated indicator weights produced by partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors rely on prior literature as well as empirical illustrations and a simulation study to assess the efficacy of equal weights estimation and the CEI.
Findings
The results show that the CEI lacks discriminatory power, and its use can lead to major differences in structural model estimates, conceals measurement model issues and almost always leads to inferior out-of-sample predictive accuracy compared to differentiated weights produced by PLS-SEM.
Research limitations/implications
In light of its manifold conceptual and empirical limitations, the authors advise against the use of the CEI. Its adoption and the routine use of equal weights estimation could adversely affect the validity of measurement and structural model results and understate structural model predictive accuracy. Although this study shows that the CEI is an unsuitable metric to decide between equal weights and differentiated weights, it does not propose another means for such a comparison.
Practical implications
The results suggest that researchers and practitioners should prefer differentiated indicator weights such as those produced by PLS-SEM over equal weights.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to provide a comprehensive assessment of the CEI’s usefulness. The results provide guidance for researchers considering using equal indicator weights instead of PLS-SEM-based weighted indicators.
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Juan Yang, Zhenkun Li and Xu Du
Although numerous signal modalities are available for emotion recognition, audio and visual modalities are the most common and predominant forms for human beings to express their…
Abstract
Purpose
Although numerous signal modalities are available for emotion recognition, audio and visual modalities are the most common and predominant forms for human beings to express their emotional states in daily communication. Therefore, how to achieve automatic and accurate audiovisual emotion recognition is significantly important for developing engaging and empathetic human–computer interaction environment. However, two major challenges exist in the field of audiovisual emotion recognition: (1) how to effectively capture representations of each single modality and eliminate redundant features and (2) how to efficiently integrate information from these two modalities to generate discriminative representations.
Design/methodology/approach
A novel key-frame extraction-based attention fusion network (KE-AFN) is proposed for audiovisual emotion recognition. KE-AFN attempts to integrate key-frame extraction with multimodal interaction and fusion to enhance audiovisual representations and reduce redundant computation, filling the research gaps of existing approaches. Specifically, the local maximum–based content analysis is designed to extract key-frames from videos for the purpose of eliminating data redundancy. Two modules, including “Multi-head Attention-based Intra-modality Interaction Module” and “Multi-head Attention-based Cross-modality Interaction Module”, are proposed to mine and capture intra- and cross-modality interactions for further reducing data redundancy and producing more powerful multimodal representations.
Findings
Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets (i.e. RAVDESS and CMU-MOSEI) demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of KE-AFN. Specifically, (1) KE-AFN is superior to state-of-the-art baselines for audiovisual emotion recognition. (2) Exploring the supplementary and complementary information of different modalities can provide more emotional clues for better emotion recognition. (3) The proposed key-frame extraction strategy can enhance the performance by more than 2.79 per cent on accuracy. (4) Both exploring intra- and cross-modality interactions and employing attention-based audiovisual fusion can lead to better prediction performance.
Originality/value
The proposed KE-AFN can support the development of engaging and empathetic human–computer interaction environment.
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Umar Saba Dangana and Namnso Bassey Udoekanem
The rising concern for the accuracy of residential valuations in Nigeria has created the need for key stakeholders in the residential property markets in the study areas to know…
Abstract
Purpose
The rising concern for the accuracy of residential valuations in Nigeria has created the need for key stakeholders in the residential property markets in the study areas to know the level of accuracy of valuations in order to make rational residential property transactions, amongst other purposes.
Design/methodology/approach
A blend of descriptive and causal designs was adopted for the study. Data were collected via structured questionnaire administered to 179 estate surveying and valuation (ESV) firms in the study areas using census sampling technique. Analytical techniques such as median percentage error (PE), mean and relative importance index (RII) analysis were employed in the analysis of data collected for the study.
Findings
The study found that valuation accuracy is greater in the residential property market in Abuja than in Minna, with inappropriate valuation methodology as the most significant cause of valuation inaccuracy.
Practical implications
The practical implication of this study is that a reliable databank should be established for the property market to provide credible transaction data for valuers to conduct accurate valuations in these cities. Strict enforcement of national and international valuation standards by the regulatory authorities as well as retraining of valuers on appropriate application of valuation approaches and methods are the recommended corrective measures.
Originality/value
No study has comparatively examined the accuracy of valuations in two extremely different residential property markets in the country using actual valuation and transaction prices.
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