Search results

Using composite indices, the paper examines the nexus between militarization, globalization and liberal democracy. The democratic peace theory, the conflict inhibiting effects of international trade – a key and dominant facet of globalization – and the democracy promoting globalization hypothesis form the theoretical underpinnings of the empirical investigation.

To probe into the issue at hand, the paper adopts a dynamic panel VAR estimation procedure. Given the usual data constraints, the sample consists of 113 countries, and the estimations span the period 1995–2019.

The findings from the dynamic panel VAR estimations suggest the presence of a negative and statistically significant nexus between the level of globalization and the level of militarization. No statistically traceable nexus between globalization and liberal democracy was found.

The findings offer empirical support to the hypothesis that the strong links of interdependence shaped by globalization reduce the need for military preparedness. The results lead to a tentative inference in favor of the doux commerce thesis. Nonetheless, given that the estimations span a historically specific period – the entire post-bipolar era – the inferences that stem from the findings should be treated with caution.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the composite indices Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) militarization index, the globalization index of the Swiss Economic Institute (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) (KOF), LibDem, polyarchy have not hitherto been jointly used in previous studies to examine the nexus between militarization, globalization and liberal democracy.

Social change and modernization theories postulate that as countries grow they gradually move toward a condition of similarity in various spheres exhibiting similar economic and social traits. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a process of convergence in terms of criminality levels is present in the case of European countries.

The research question at hand is tackled through conventional s and ß-convergence methodologies and a battery of unit root tests in the case of 16 European countries over the period 1972-2012.

The findings reported, herein, are quite uniform irrespective of the empirical methodology employed to investigate the issue at hand. The result points to a process of convergence in terms of crime rates. However, this convergence process, although present and statistically traceable, is a rather gradual one as this is depicted both by the value of the β-coefficient as well as by the trend of the coefficient of variation.

Most of the studies in this strand of the literature focus on investigating the association between economic conditions such as unemployment and crime or on the effectiveness of crime thwarting policies. To the best of the knowledge, this is the first paper that addresses the issue of convergence in terms of crime rates in the case of European countries.

Conflict and civil strife adversely affect the economy since it severely disrupts the normal, daily routine of economic activity. Similarly, economic downturns can trigger discontent that has the potential to escalate into social unrest and strife. Using the recently compiled index on social unrest (RSUI) of Barrett et al. (2020), the paper sets out to examine the nexus between economic growth and social unrest in the case of 29 Middle East and Central Asia countries over the period 2000–2018.

To probe into the issue at hand, the paper adopts a panel causality approach. To this effect, two panel causality tests are used. The first is the heterogeneous panel causality model proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) is employed. The second panel Granger causality test is the frequency domain causality test constructed by Breitung and Candelon (2006) and extended for panel testing by Croux and Reusens (2013).

The results of the causality tests indicate a strong bidirectional nexus between civil unrest and economic growth. The findings support the contention that civil strife adversely affects economic performance and economic downturns can trigger discontent and unrest.

Albeit consistent and robust, the results reported herein concern the specific sample of countries under scrutiny. Extending the analysis to other groups of countries will offer better insights into the nexus between civil unrest and economic performance.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the present paper is the first to address the nexus between social unrest and economic growth for this group of countries using the recently compiled index on social unrest (RSUI).

Portfolio construction and diversification is a prominent challenge for investors. It reflects market agents’ behavior and response to market conditions. This paper aims to investigate the stock-bond nexus in the case of two emerging and two mature markets, India, South Africa, the UK and the USA, using long-term historical monthly data.

To address the issue at hand, copula quantile-on-quantile regression (C-QQR) is used to model the correlation structure. Although this technique is driven by copula-based quantile regression model, it retains more flexibility and delivers more robust and accurate estimates.

Results suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity in the bond-stock returns correlation across the countries under study point to different investors’ behavior in the four markets examined. Additionally, the findings reported herein suggest that using C-QQR in portfolio management can enable the formation of tailored response strategies, adapted to the needs and preferences of investors and traders.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous study has addressed in a comparative setting the stock-bond nexus for the four countries used here using long-term historical data that cover the periods 1920:08-2017:02, 1910:01-2017:02, 1933:01-2017:02 and 1791:09-2017:02 for India, South Africa, the UK and the USA, respectively.

Terrorist events are unforeseen and have the potential to shake and rattle markets and investors. The purpose of this study is to examine whether major terrorist incidents have affected the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in four European countries.

An index is constructed that weights the severity of each event and then used to evaluate through the use of vector autoregressive and impulse response analysis estimation techniques whether or not and to what extent the ESI has been affected.

Effects were more pronounced and evident in the case of France and Germany while the ESI in Spain and Great Britain did not appear to be particularly affected by terrorist incidents.

The effects of terrorism on economic sentiment in other countries will provide additional evidence that will allow more robust and conclusive statistical inferences.

The impact of terrorist activity on the ESI for the four European countries studied here has not been examined before using VAR and impulse response analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between growth, investment and military expenditure in the case of the European Union‐15.

The paper uses fixed panel models, random coefficient models and a trivariate VAR model to examine empirically the relationship between these three macroeconomic variables.

The results obtained and reported herein show a significant positive effect of the growth rate on the share of military expenditure and on the share of investment. However, on the whole, the findings do not seem to point to any consistent quantitative relation between defence spending and either growth or investment. Thus, they appear to be in line with the findings of other studies.

The economic effects of military spending have drawn considerable attention. Demand side effects on capacity utilisation are one possible channel through which the economy can be positively affected by such expenditure. On the other hand however, reduced investment and capital stock have been reported as a possible negative economic impact of defence outlays that can more than offset any growth inducing effective demand stimulation. The paper attempts a simultaneous assessment of the impact of defence expenditure on both growth and investment for the EU‐15, something that has not been tried before.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the revenue‐expenditure nexus in the case of the 15 members of the European Union.

The paper uses a VECM framework to determine the causal ordering between these two macroeconomic aggregates.

The empirical tests have yielded mixed results. The fiscal synchronisation hypothesis is supported for Denmark, Greece, Ireland, The Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden while, in the case of Austria, Belgium and Germany, the results point to the institutional separation hypothesis. Unidirectional causality from revenue to expenditure appears to be the case for Italy and Spain while the reverse causal ordering is found for Luxembourg. The findings also suggest the presence of the Buchanan‐Wagner hypothesis for Finland, France and the UK.

The determination of the causal ordering between these two macroeconomic aggregates has important implications for fiscal policy and the concomitant determination of budgetary balances. This is particularly true for the countries that participate in the eurozone and thus fall under the provisions of the stability and growth pact.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of unemployment on various types of crime in Greece.

A battery of econometric tests, including Granger causality tests, a variance decomposition analysis, and an impulse response analysis are used to explore the nexus between unemployment and 14 different types of crime.

Out of the 14 different types of criminal activity, only in the case of three – vehicle thefts, robberies and contraband & smuggling – was a nexus with unemployment established.

Given that such criminal activity is primarily motivated and driven by economic gain, a policy implication is that crime thwarting policies need to be complemented by corresponding labour market interventions, especially in periods of recession, when unemployment emerges as a major problem for disadvantaged social groups.

The issue between labour market conditions and crime has not been addressed before in the case of Greece, a country that has experienced a generally growing crime rate.