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The purpose of this paper is to examine the grain production implications of alternative designs for China’s grain subsidy policy. In particular, the authors examine three subsidy designs including area-based subsidy, quantity-based subsidy and production-cost-based subsidy.

To carry out the analysis, the authors develop a Chinese agricultural sector model (CASM) and an econometric, policy action–farmer response summary model. The CASM is used under a wide variety of subsidy level and basis experiments to generate pseudo data on farmer reactions to subsidies. Then a summary function model was estimated over those pseudo data that quantitatively summarized modeled farmer responses to different grain subsidy schemes. In turn, the summary functions were used to optimize the subsidy level such that it maximized grain production both within and across the area-based, quantity-based and cost-based subsidies. Regional implications were also developed.

The authors found that the production-quantity-based subsidy is the most cost-effective in stimulating grain production among the subsidy schemes. The authors also argue that scheme complies with WTO regulations regarding product-specific support. The authors found that the areas where grain production was most affected were the traditional grain-producing regions.

To the authors’ knowledge the authors have not seen a study of the Chinese grain subsidy program context that examined the effects of alternative subsidy schemes, nor one that developed estimates of the optimal subsidy level. In addition, the methodology is unique employing bottom-up, regionally disaggregated, sector modeling coupled with an aggregate pseudo data based summary function approach providing a new, original approach for analyzing agricultural policy design.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze economy‐wide impacts of different types of public spending in China. A particular focus is placed on their impacts on food economy.

In this paper, DCGE model is developed to analyze economy‐wide impacts of different types of public spending in China. The effects of increased agricultural subsidies, agricultural R&D, and irrigation are simulated by using China DCGE model.

The results show that public spending has significant impact on food production, price, and trade. The increased public spending on agricultural R&D, irrigation, and agricultural subsidy also has modest impacts on other sectors such as industry, service, and GDP growth.

The paper constructs the China dynamic CGE model and analyzes economy‐wide impacts of different types of public spending in China, especially for the food economy.

China's agricultural sector has developed very rapidly in the past 30 years and agricultural technological progress is deemed one of the most substantial factors leading to its rapid agricultural GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impacts of China's agricultural technological changes on its regional disparity.

The study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of multiple regions and multiple sectors to investigate the impacts of agricultural technological changes on regional disparity. The CGE model structure includes production side, demand side, and market clearing conditions.

The results suggest that agricultural technological changes significantly reduced China's agricultural regional disparity and accounted for 40 percent reduction in agricultural regional disparity in terms of agricultural GDP per capita. Agricultural technological changes, however, led to an increase in China's overall regional disparity and accounted for 6 percent increase in its overall regional disparity in terms of per capita GDP.

China's GDP has been growing very rapidly since 1978 and agricultural GDP has been playing a decreasing role in China's overall GDP. Regional disparity in non‐agricultural GDP per capita overweighted the equalization of agricultural GDP per capita. The results imply that the Chinese government should resort more to non‐agricultural development to fight against the enlarging regional disparity.

China's agricultural technological changes have led to an increase in China's overall regional disparity while the changes have significantly reduced China's agricultural regional disparity.

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.

The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.

The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.

The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a modelling approach that enables the analysis of long-term food security policies. Specifically, the authors explore the effect of China’s agricultural domestic support on its agricultural and food market by also considering the impact of incomplete price transmission.

The authors extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling framework. First, the authors incorporate incomplete price transmission into the GTAP model by generating tariff-equivalent price transmission elasticities. Second, the authors improve the current representation of China’s agricultural domestic support in the GTAP model and the underlying database by considering the production requirements and the trade-distorting effect of different policy instruments. Running a set of simulations, the authors examine first how the incorporation of incomplete price transmission affects the model’s results and second how increased agricultural domestic support affects China’s agricultural and food market accounting for incomplete price transmission.

Considering incomplete price transmission mitigates the domestic price increases as responses to high international agricultural prices, which also lead to an increase in China’s trade deficit and prohibits net food sellers from receiving high prices. In the long term, an increase in China’s agricultural domestic support to its World Trade Organisation de minimis commitment level would increase domestic agricultural production and reduce its demand pressure on the international market.

This paper contributes to the literature by examining the impact of increased agricultural domestic support on the domestic market while innovatively accounting for incomplete food price transmission. The authors combine econometric estimated price transmission elasticities and an extended GTAP framework to underscore the importance of enhancing the model’s ability in accounting for incomplete price transmission when analysing the impact of agricultural policies.

The purpose of this paper is to outline a version of SinoTERM, a multi‐regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China that has been updated and disaggregated further to enhance the agricultural detail. A version of the model is publicly available and will be useful to CGE modelers studying Chinese agricultural issues (www.monash.edu.au/policy/sinoterm.htm).

The paper outlines data sources for building SinoTERM. It contains a CGE application to agriculture in China. Unlike the national input‐output table published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the master database of SinoTERM contains many agricultural sectors.

CGE models that represent a nation as a single economy may offer rich insights into winners and losers from particular policy scenarios. Multi‐regional analysis takes this a step further by comparing outcomes for regions in which particular industries are a relatively large part of the economy.

This paper builds on the first SinoTERM paper in several ways. First, the database is disaggregated further to represent tea, sugar cane and silkworms as individual sectors in the CGE database. Second, given the extraordinary economic growth in China, the national and regional database has been updated to 2006 using data from the 2007 yearbook. Third, the paper contains an application to agriculture: it examines the impacts of productivity growth in different agricultural sectors in China.

The regional CGE model used in this application could be used to explore many other policy issues concerning agriculture in China.

The Chinese Government has used a number of policies to encourage commercial agribusiness firms to do more innovation. These include public sector agricultural research and development (R&D), public sector biotechnology research and innovation, subsidies for commercial research, encouraging foreign firms to invest in China as minority shareholders in joint ventures, and allowing commercial companies to raise money on the stock market. The purpose of this paper is to assess whether these policies were effective in stimulating innovations by commercial firms in China.

This study estimates the impact of public biotech research and other policies by employing an econometric model of patenting by commercial firms. It uses a unique data set collected from commercial agribusiness firms for the years 2001, 2004, 2005, and 2006. Addition data were collected from public research institutes and universities and patent data from the Derwent Innovations Index database. It employs four count data models for the empirical analysis.

This study finds a positive impact of public biotechnology (measured by the number of biotech patents of government research institutes and public universities) on commercial innovation measured by the number of patents granted to the commercial firms. As expected the firm’s research expenditure and having their own R&D center (as opposed to contracting R&D or no R&D investment at all) have a positive and statistically significant effect on the number of patents granted. The impacts of public R&D investment spending have no statistically significant effect on commercial innovation. Multi-national firms and publicly traded firms have fewer patents than their counterparts suggesting that policies to encourage multi-nationals and financing through stock markets had no impact on innovation.

This study is one of the first studies to untangle the relationship between government policies and innovation by commercial agricultural research output and public R&D investment and biotechnology. The main findings suggest that simply increasing research money to public research does not increase commercial innovations, but moving resources to the development patentable biotech does improve commercial research productivity. The results also suggest that policies to increase commercial research will also increase innovation. These could include strengthening the legal framework and institutional resources for public institutes to the protection and enforcement of intellectual properties.

Fertilizer overuse is regarded as one of the main contributors to agricultural pollution and environmental problems in China. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate technical efficiency (TE) and fertilizer overuse index (FOI) with respect to China’s arable agricultural production and examine regional variations in terms of fertilizer overuse.

The maximum likelihood random effects–time varying inefficiency effects model was applied to estimate TE, fertilizer use efficiency (FUE) and FOI.

Over the study period (2011–2015), TE steadily increased for each individual province. Overall, mean annual TE was 0.811, implying that, on average, Chinese provinces could increase output by 18.9 per cent given unchanged levels of inputs and technology. Mean annual FOI ranged from 0.008 to 3.139, with a mean of 0.685, suggesting that there is fertilizer overuse in almost all provinces, and that large regional variation exists. Coastal provinces were found to have the highest TE scores, while the central region showed the highest degree of fertilizer overuse.

The results indicate that fertilizer use has had a significant positive impact on production in the China’s arable agricultural sector. High TE was not necessarily associated with low FUE.

The purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system and provide policy recommendations to stimulate economic growth and agri-food system development.

An economy-wide multisector multiplier model built on China's most recent social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2017 with 149 economic sectors is used to assess the impact of COVID-19 on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system. SAM multiplier analysis focuses on supply chain linkages and captures the complexity of an interconnected economy.

The paper finds that both the macroeconomy and agri-food systems are hit significantly by COVID-19. There are three main findings. First, affected by COVID-19, GDP decreased by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with that in 2019, while the economic loss of the agri-food system is equivalent to 7% of its value added (about RMB 0.26 trillion). More than 46m agri-food system workers (about 27% of total employment) lost their jobs to COVID-19 in the lockdown phase. The COVID-19 affects the employment of unskilled labor more than that of skilled labor. Second, when the economy starts to recover during the second and third quarters, the growth rate in the value added of the agri-food system turns positive but still modest. Many jobs resume during the period, but the level of agri-food system employment continues to be lower than the base. The agri-food system employment recovery is slower than that of other sectors largely due to the sluggish recovery of restaurants. Agri-food system employment drops by 8.6m, which accounts for about 33% of the total jobs lost. Third, although the domestic economy is expected to be normal in the fourth quarter, external demand still faces uncertainties due to the global pandemic. The agri-food system is projected to grow by 1.1% annually in 2020 with resuming export demand, while only by 0.4% without resuming export demand. These rates are much lower than an annual growth rate of 4.3% for the agri-food system in 2019. The results also show that, without resuming export demand, China's total economy will grow less than 1% in 2020, while, with export demand resumed, the growth rate rises to 1.7%. These rates are much lower than an annual GDP growth rate of 6.1% in 2019.

The results show that continuously reducing economic dependency on exports and stimulating domestic demand are key areas that require policy support. The agri-food system can play an important role in supporting broad economic growth and job creation as SMEs are major part of the AFS. Job creation requires policies to promote innovation by entrepreneurs who run numerous SMEs in China.

This paper represents the first systematic study assessing the impact of COVID-19 on China's agri-food system in terms of value added and employment. The assessment considers three phases of lockdown, recovery and normal phases in order to capture the full potential cost of COVID-19.