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Article
Publication date: 13 July 2021

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Mariam Elbayar

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the investors' behavior under optimistic (pessimistic) conditions has an impact on risk transmission between the Chinese…

2025

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the investors' behavior under optimistic (pessimistic) conditions has an impact on risk transmission between the Chinese stock and bond markets and the sector indices mainly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a new measure of the investor's sentiment based on Google trend to construct a Chinese investor's sentiment index and a quantile causal approach to examine the causal relationship between googling investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock and bond markets as well as the sector indices. On the other hand, the network connectedness is used to estimate the spillover effect on the investor's sentiment and index returns. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors employed the Chinese VIX, as another measure of the investor's sentiment using daily data from May 2019 to December 2020.

Findings

In fact, the authors found a dual causality between the investor's sentiment and the financial market indices in optimistic or pessimistic situations, which indicates that positive and negative financial market returns may have an effect on the Chinese investor's sentiment. In addition, the results indicated that a pessimistic investor's sentiment has a negative impact on the banking, healthcare and utility sectors. In fact, the study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment, the stock market and the sector indices during the 2015–2016 and 2019–2020 turmoil periods that coincide respectively with the 2015 recession of the Chinese economy and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

This finding suggests that the Chinese googling investor's sentiment is considered as a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the coronavirus crisis, which confirms the behavioral contagion. This study also identifies the contribution of a particular interest for portfolio managers and investors, which helps them to accordingly design their portfolio strategy.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 March 2021

Thomas C. Chiang

This paper investigates the impact of a change in economic policy uncertainty

1718

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the impact of a change in economic policy uncertainty (ΔEPUt) and the absolute value of a change in geopolitical risk (|ΔGPRt|) on the returns of stocks, bonds and gold in the Chinese market.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses Engle's (2009) dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model and Chiang's (1988) rolling correlation model to generate correlations of asset returns over time and analyzes their responses to (ΔEPUt) and  |ΔGPRt|.

Findings

Evidence shows that stock-bond return correlations are negatively correlated to ΔEPUt, whereas stock-gold return correlations are positively related to the |ΔGPRt|, but negatively correlated with ΔEPUt. This study finds evidence that stock returns are adversely related to the risk/uncertainty measured by downside risk,  ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt|, whereas the bond return is positively related to a rise in ΔEPUt; the gold return is positively correlated with a heightened |ΔGPRt|.

Research limitations/implications

The findings are based entirely on the data for China's asset markets; further research may expand this analysis to other emerging markets, depending on the availability of GPR indices.

Practical implications

Evidence suggests that the performance of the Chinese market differs from advanced markets. This study shows that gold is a safe haven and can be viewed as an asset to hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in Chinese financial markets.

Social implications

This study identify the special role for the gold prices in response to the economic policy uncertainty and the geopolitical risk. Evidence shows that stock and bond return correlation is negatively related to the ΔEPU and support the flight-to-quality hypothesis. However, the stock-gold return correlation is positively related to |ΔGPR|, resulting from the income or wealth effect.

Originality/value

The presence of a dynamic correlations between stock-bond and stock-gold relations in response to  ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt| has not previously been tested in the literature. Moreover, this study finds evidence that bond-gold correlations are negatively correlated to both ΔEPUt and  |ΔGPRt|.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2021

Airil Khalid and Zamri Ahmad

This study aims to observe the extent of asset diversification benefits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 market by examining the effect of financial…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to observe the extent of asset diversification benefits in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 market by examining the effect of financial integration (FI) and financial development (FD) on domestic stock–bond co-movements, SBcorr.

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic conditional correlation - multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) technique is adopted to construct FI and stock−bond co-movement variables. Then, the study uses static panel data analysis to examine the effect of FI on stock−bond co-movements.

Findings

FI does not provide asset diversification benefits due to high country risks in ASEAN-5. However, when FI is moderated by FD, FI × FD, the study shows that FI × FD provides higher asset diversification benefits in ASEAN-5.

Originality/value

This study shows the importance of incorporating the level of FD when assessing the effect of FI on stock–bond co-movements in ASEAN-5. In the presence of FI, a well-diversified investor should always consider the state of FD, which will show a better representation of asset diversification strategy in the emerging markets. Additionally, policymakers of ASEAN-5 countries should prioritise enhancing their financial system to attract more investment into the countries.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 September 2022

Ameet Kumar Banerjee

This paper investigates the influence of three different sentiment indicators on the time-varying stock–bond correlation of 15 countries during the global crisis period of the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the influence of three different sentiment indicators on the time-varying stock–bond correlation of 15 countries during the global crisis period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses the time-varying correlation estimated using the autoregressive moving average -dynamic conditional correlation - generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARMA-DCC-GARCH) model to achieve this aim. The impact of investor sentiment on the stock–bond correlation was analysed using the Markov regime-switching regression.

Findings

The study results show that the sentiment indicators of fear, uncertainty and distress have a pronounced negative impact on the stock–bond correlation. They further provide evidence of a strong regime effect on the stock–bond correlation with sentiment indicators.

Practical implications

The paper has a relevant impact on policymakers and fund managers. First, the policymakers now have more insightful evidence of how the stock and bond markets react during crises. Second, the fund managers need to focus on behavioural variables as they may be driving factors in crisis periods that may impair portfolio management.

Originality/value

To the best of my knowledge, the paper is the first to throw light on the behaviour of the stock–bond correlation for 15 countries during the COVID-19 period.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 23 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

Article
Publication date: 20 December 2021

Taicir Mezghani and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

This paper investigates the impact of financial stress on the dynamic connectedness and hedging for oil market and stock-bond markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the impact of financial stress on the dynamic connectedness and hedging for oil market and stock-bond markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the wavelet coherence model to examine the interactions between financial stress, oil and GCC stock and bond markets. Second, the authors apply the time–frequency connectedness developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018) so as to identify the direction and scale connectedness among these markets. Third, the authors examine the optimal weights, hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness for oil and financial markets based on constant conditional correlation (CCC), dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner (BEKK)-GARCH models.

Findings

The authors have found that the correlation between the oil and stock-bond markets tends to be stable in nonshock periods, but it evolves during oil and financial shocks at lower frequencies. Moreover, the authors find that the oil market and financial stress are the main transmitters of risks. The connectedness is mainly driven by the long term, demonstrating that the markets rapidly process the financial stress spillover effect, and the shock is transmitted over the long run. Optimal weights show different patterns for each negative and positive case of the financial stress index. In the negative (positive) financial stress case, investors should have more oil (stocks) than stocks (oil) in their portfolio in order to minimize risk.

Originality/value

This study has gone some way toward enhancing one’s understanding of the time–frequency connectedness between the financial stress, oil and GCC stock-bond markets. Second, it identifies the impact of financial stress into hedging strategies offering important insights for investors aiming at managing and reducing portfolio risk.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2022

Kai Li and Chenjie Xu

This paper aims to study the asset pricing implications for stock and bond markets in a long-run risks (LRR) model with regime shifts. This general equilibrium framework can not…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the asset pricing implications for stock and bond markets in a long-run risks (LRR) model with regime shifts. This general equilibrium framework can not only generate sign-switching stock-bond correlations and bond risk premium, but also quantitatively reproduce various other salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The researchers study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a LRR model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent.

Findings

The model shows that the term structure of interest rates and stock-bond correlation are intimately related to business cycles, while LRR play a more important role in accounting for high equity premium than do business cycle risks.

Originality/value

This paper studies the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a Bansal and Yaron (2004) type of LRR framework. This rational expectations general equilibrium framework can (1) jointly match the dynamics of consumption, inflation and cash flow; (2) generate time-varying and sign-switching stock and bond correlations, as well as generating sign-switching bond risk premium; and (3) coherently explain another long list of salient empirical features in stock and bond markets, including time-varying equity and bond return premia, regime shifts in real and nominal yield curves, the violation of the expectations hypothesis of bond returns.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 September 2023

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Souha Boutouria

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The authors also compare the hedging performance of in-sample and out-of-sample analyses.

Design/methodology/approach

For the modeling purpose, the authors combine the GARCH-BEKK model with the machine learning approach to predict the transmission of shocks between the financial markets and the oil market. The authors also examine the hedging performance in order to obtain well-diversified portfolios under both Financial Stress cases, using a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) model.

Findings

According to the results, the in-sample analysis shows that investors can use oil to hedge stock markets under positive Financial Stress. In addition, the authors prove that oil hedging is ineffective in reducing market risks for bond markets. The out-of-sample results demonstrate the ability of hedging effectiveness to minimize portfolio risk during the recent pandemic in both Financial Stress cases. Interestingly, hedgers will have a more efficient hedging performance in the stock and oil market in the case of positive (negative) Financial Stress. The findings seem to be confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test, suggesting that including the negative (positive) Financial Stress in the hedging strategy displays better out-of-sample performance than the in-sample model.

Originality/value

This study improves the understanding of the whole sample and positive (negative) Financial Stress estimates and forecasts of hedge effectiveness for both the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates. A portfolio strategy based on transmission shock prediction provides diversification benefits.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 July 2019

Rabia Khatun and Jagadish Prasad Bist

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development, openness in financial services trade and economic growth in BRICS countries for the period…

4618

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development, openness in financial services trade and economic growth in BRICS countries for the period 1990–2012.

Design/methodology/approach

An index for financial development has been constructed using principal component analysis technique by including banking sector development, stock market development, bond market development and insurance sector development. For the robustness of the result, the long-run cointegrating relationship amongst the variables has been analyzed.

Findings

Overall financial development has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. To take the full advantage of openness in financial services trade, countries need to put more emphasis on the development of their stock markets, bond markets and the insurance sector. The result shows that openness in financial services trade has a positive impact on economic growth when the stock market, bond market and insurance sector are included in the system.

Research limitations/implications

The policy implication of the findings is that policymakers should focus more on developing all four areas of finance to get the full benefit of the financial system on the process of economic growth.

Originality/value

The authors have constructed the better indicators of financial development in the case of BRICS economies. Most of the studies in BRICS economies have measured the development of the financial sector as either banking sector development or stock market development. However, the present study includes all four areas of finance (banking sector development, stock market development, insurance sector development and bond market development) into account.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2009

Kim Hiang Liow and Alastair Adair

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of Asian real estate companies with regard to their “value‐added” performance and portfolio diversification benefits in Asian…

2984

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of Asian real estate companies with regard to their “value‐added” performance and portfolio diversification benefits in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios, as well as in international real estate securities portfolios over 1996‐2005.

Design/methodology/approach

First the risk‐return performance for all 13 Asian as well as the US and UK real estate securities markets is compared. For each country, next the correlation profiles between real estate, common stock, bonds and cash are assessed. The value‐add benefits of Asian real estate securities in an unconstrained and constrained mixed asset portfolio are then assessed in relation to portfolio return, risk and terminal wealth. Finally, the paper explores whether there are benefits derived from international diversification with a universe of Asian real estate securities from the perspectives of the US and UK investors.

Findings

It was found that, whilst there is little evidence of diversification benefits and superior risk‐adjusted performance of Asian real estate companies in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios, diversification into Asian real estate stocks can provide positive portfolio implications for international investors. Thus investing in Asian real estate securities portfolios rather than investing in Asian mixed‐asset portfolios may be seen to be the more effective diversification strategy over this period.

Originality/value

The study has provided some interesting and important insights into the dynamics and performance of Asian real estate securities. With an increased emphasis on international property investment and as the regional upturn becomes more evident, Asian real estate companies potentially provide an important real estate investment opportunity for international property fund mangers.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

1 – 10 of 375