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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China’s grain futures prices. Related literature has discussed several factors contributing to the dramatic boom and bust in China’s grain futures prices, but has overlooked the influence of EPU.

The study employs a newly developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to study and contrast the impact of different types of uncertainty on China’s grain futures prices. The directional volatility spillover index is used to measure the impact of EPU on China’s grain futures prices and compare the differences among commodities.

The results show that EPU affects China’s grain futures prices significantly. The 2008 global financial crisis had stronger influence on China’s grain futures prices than other types of uncertainty. Furthermore, EPU has smaller influence on wheat futures price than on maize and soybean. The Chinese Government interventions may be the reason for this difference.

This study addresses the lack of empirical investigation on the influence of EPU on China’s grain futures price volatility.

The purpose of this paper is to detect the existence of price bubbles and examine the possible contributing factors that associate with price bubble occurrences in China agricultural commodity markets.

Using recently developed rolling window right-side augmented Dickey–Fuller test, we first detect the dates of price bubbles in China's two important agricultural commodity markets, namely corn and soybeans. Then, we use a penalized maximum likelihood estimation of a multinomial logistic model to estimate the contributing factors of price bubbles in both markets, respectively.

Results from the bubble detection indicate that price bubbles account for 5.48% (3.91%) of the studied periods for corn (soybeans). More importantly, we find that market liquidity and speculation have opposite effects on the occurrences of bubbles in the corn and soybeans market. World stocks-to-use and exchange rates affect the occurrences of bubbles in a different way for each commodity, as well. Price bubbles are more likely associated with strong economic activity, high interest rates and low inflation levels.

This is the first study considering commodity-specific features into the formation of price bubbles. Through accurately identifying the bubble dates and fixing the estimation bias of rare events models, this study enables us to obtain robust results for each commodity. The results imply that China's corn and soybeans market respond differently to the speculative activity and external shocks from international markets. Therefore, future policy regulations on commodity markets should focus on more commodity-specific factors when aiming at avoiding bubble occurrences.

Since the start of the twenty‐first century China has stepped into a new stage of harmonious urban‐rural development. Based on the brief review of policy changes since the new century, the purpose of this paper is to figure out the comprehensive policy framework, and analyze its background and reasons.

First, this paper offers a brief review of China's rural reform with focus on the policy framework and changes since the reform of rural tax and fee system in 2000. Next, the paper focuses on food security to discuss grain price increase and China's grain imports, then the current problems facing China's agricultural and rural development are discussed and countermeasures provided.

The paper finds that several policies have been implemented toward the coordination between urban and rural areas and toward the integration of urban and rural development. However, China's grain production is still facing big challenges, both from the increasing demand and the resource constraint. Therefore, food security should be given priority in future. China's current rural reform and development is also facing the problems such as slow growth of farmer's income, the impacts of migrant rural labourer on economy and society and the outflow of rural resources.

This paper reviews systematically major policies of China's agriculture and rural development, and analyzes the characteristics of and reasons for China's grain price increase. Meanwhile, the constraint of resources, especially land and water, is also studied in detail. The paper's analysis can provide important advice for future policy making.

The paper aims to review and assess China's food security practice over the past three decades with a view of drawing implications for further improving its food security in the future.

A normative food security framework is used to assess China's food security achievements and examine any remaining and emerging issues in its pursuit for food security.

China has done well in achieving grain security in the past three decades. However, it cannot be concluded that China has achieved its food security according to the normative food security framework. This is because there are serious problems in the aspects of food safety and quality, environmental sustainability, and social stability. To achieve long‐term food security, China has to tackle the wide spread issues of unsafe foods and foods of dubious quality, environmental pollution and degradation, and the establishment of a social security system.

Examining China's food security practice over the past three decades can generate experiences and lessons valuable not only for China, but also for other developing countries in their efforts to achieving national food security. Issues are identified to which the Chinese government needs to pay attention in order to improve China's food security in the future.

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the implications of China's recently adopted agricultural policies on domestic and international commodity markets.

A systematic, quantitative analysis is applied to address whether China's recent trade and production policies distort China's domestic and international commodity markets. The paper provides a clear picture of how trade‐restricting policies affect markets using a 42‐country partial equilibrium global dynamic agricultural simulation model.

The paper shows that recent agricultural policy reforms increase China's production slightly, causing imports to decrease while exports decline because of input subsidies, export taxes and the reduction of export value added tax rebates. Domestic prices to consumers decrease in real terms. The effects on world markets are small as the set of policies adopted partially offset each other in the international arena.

The paper indicates that the adoption of the policy reforms lower price levels domestically and benefit lower income urban and rural households, whose diets are largely based on rice and wheat as staple foods. Future model enhancements should include measures of producer and consumer welfare in order to capture the total impacts of policies and policy changes in China.

The paper quantifies the potential implications of the recent agricultural policy reforms in China. This contributes to the investigation of the effects of these policies implemented by the Chinese Government to achieve the country's policy objectives. Owing to the dynamics of China's policy implementation an in‐depth analysis sheds light and contributes to capturing the impacts of policy reforms on the domestic and international markets.

This paper analyzes the factors that potentially affect grain security in China and reviews the techniques used for prediction. It reviews and compares forecasts for grain security in 2020 and 2030 with the aim of making some judgments, from the perspective of grain supply and demand, about the future grain security situation in China.

In this article, the paper will introduce the methods and results of the forecast and also focus on the predictions for grain security in 2020 and 2030 in order to give a clear review of previous researches in this regard.

The results indicate that the traditional threats to food supply and demand in China still exist, while demand for biomass energy continues to rise. With regard to grain aggregate, the grain supply-demand balance will still be relatively tight for both 2020 and 2030. In terms of structure, grain for feed will experience increase – mainly driven by the supply of corn – adding to the unabated structural issues confronting regional grain supply and demand. In the future, therefore, China should try to preserve favorable factors that increase grain production, optimize grain structure and production, maintain the proper scale and make-up of grain imports and exports, and work for a sound global trading environment for grain.

This article contributes to existing literature by analyzing the factors affecting grain security in China and reviewing prediction techniques and forecasts for grain security in China in 2020 and 2030. The findings suggest that China needs to take appropriate measures to ensure future grain security.

Many grain exporting/importing countries implement temporary trade policies to intervene in grain trade volume during food crises. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of Chinese soybean trade policies on the domestic soybean market during the food crisis.

A Markov switching error correction model is constructed for the empirical analysis. Market integration, market equilibrium and market stability are compared among three regimes: the normal state, crisis state and post-crisis state. In order to reduce the disturbance from external markets factors on the results, the US soybean market is selected as a control group in that it did not use any soybean intervention trade policies during the food crisis.

The empirical results indicate that China’s temporary soybean trade policies lead to a decrease in market integration between domestic and international soybean markets and a reduction in domestic soybean market stability.

It is the first time that China’s soybean market is selected as a sample and case on this issue. The regime shifting non-linear model could be more applicable because there exists a non-linear transmission relationship between grains markets during food crises. The results imply that China’s temporary soybean trade policies do not improve market integration and stability. China should reconsider implementing soybean trade intervening policies to protect the domestic market and safeguard food security.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a modelling approach that enables the analysis of long-term food security policies. Specifically, the authors explore the effect of China’s agricultural domestic support on its agricultural and food market by also considering the impact of incomplete price transmission.

The authors extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling framework. First, the authors incorporate incomplete price transmission into the GTAP model by generating tariff-equivalent price transmission elasticities. Second, the authors improve the current representation of China’s agricultural domestic support in the GTAP model and the underlying database by considering the production requirements and the trade-distorting effect of different policy instruments. Running a set of simulations, the authors examine first how the incorporation of incomplete price transmission affects the model’s results and second how increased agricultural domestic support affects China’s agricultural and food market accounting for incomplete price transmission.

Considering incomplete price transmission mitigates the domestic price increases as responses to high international agricultural prices, which also lead to an increase in China’s trade deficit and prohibits net food sellers from receiving high prices. In the long term, an increase in China’s agricultural domestic support to its World Trade Organisation de minimis commitment level would increase domestic agricultural production and reduce its demand pressure on the international market.

This paper contributes to the literature by examining the impact of increased agricultural domestic support on the domestic market while innovatively accounting for incomplete food price transmission. The authors combine econometric estimated price transmission elasticities and an extended GTAP framework to underscore the importance of enhancing the model’s ability in accounting for incomplete price transmission when analysing the impact of agricultural policies.

This article aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the late-mover advantages and disadvantages of China's futures market.

This paper reviews the establishment and evolution of China's futures market via historical and comparative analysis, deeply analyzing the market's late-mover advantages and disadvantages.

The establishment and evolution of China's futures market as a late-mover enjoys benefits in overall design, pilot, and post-development. However, it also suffers disadvantages brought by institutional transformations, advantage enjoyment, catch-up strategies, and international integration.

This paper is the first to systematically explore the laws affecting the formation of the price system in China's futures market. The findings of this research provide important policy implications for the development of China's futures market and references for other developing countries.