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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1987

James Love

The issue of export instability exerts an enduring fascination for economists with an interest in the area of economic development. Over several decades a voluminous…

Abstract

The issue of export instability exerts an enduring fascination for economists with an interest in the area of economic development. Over several decades a voluminous literature has emerged embracing debates on the domestic consequences and on the causes of export instability. The purpose here is to examine these debates and an attempt is made to set out different theoretical stances, to classify and examine empirical findings, and to indicate the directions in which the debates have moved. Such a statement of a review article's purpose is, of course, incomplete without more specific delineation of the boundaries within which the general objectives are pursued. Here that delineation has three facets.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to take stock and to increase understanding of the opportunities and threats for policing in ten European countries in the Political, Economic, Social, Technological and Legal (PESTL) environment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is part of the large EU‐funded COMPOSITE project into organisational change. A PESTL analysis was executed to produce the environmental scan that will serve as a platform for further research into change management within the police. The findings are based on structured interviews with police officers of 17 different police forces and knowledgeable externals in ten European countries. The sampling strategy was optimized for representativeness under the binding capacity constraints defined by the COMPOSITE research budget.

Findings

European police forces face a long list of environmental changes that can be grouped in the five PESTL clusters with a common denominator. There is also quite some overlap as to both the importance and nature of the key PESTL trends across the ten countries, suggesting convergence in Europe.

Originality/value

A study of this magnitude has not been seen before in Europe, which brings new insights to the target population of police forces across Europe. Moreover, policing is an interesting field to study from the perspective of organisational change, featuring a high incidence of change in combination with a wide variety of change challenges, such as those related to identity and leadership.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. 26 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2014

Maayan Zhitomirsky-Geffet and Yigal Maman

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the quality and reliability of websites’ content can be assessed through the lens of “wisdom of the crowds”. In…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the quality and reliability of websites’ content can be assessed through the lens of “wisdom of the crowds”. In particular as a case study the authors examine the information supplied over time on several prominent Israeli real estate websites.

Design/methodology/approach

The Israeli real estate market was selected for the study, since there are many large, popular and dynamic real estate websites that feature hundreds of thousands of ads, representing most of the supply of real estate properties in the country. The authors built an automatic, ontology-based system that downloaded advertisements from three selected websites every two weeks for a number of months and checked for changes in these advertisements over time. The authors conjecture that wisdom of the crowds is mostly reflected by the information changes on the websites, since they indicate the anticipated market trends. Hence the authors developed a number of statistical measures to comparatively analyse trends of information changes on these websites, and assess their reliability compared to the actual market data and tendencies.

Findings

The primary results suggest similar information change trends amongst all the websites. Surprisingly, although some properties did not sell over time, sellers generally did not lower their asking price and were willing to wait. Sellers even raised their asking price, apparently in anticipation of future price increases. Comparison of recurring trends among the websites with the trends of the real market during the same time period and a few months after reveals that wisdom of the crowds is only partially effective as an indicator and predictor of website content quality: it correctly reflects the fluctuation in demand, but not in the prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study was conducted over a limited time period of five months, and only in several cities in Israel. Additionally, since buyers are not explicitly represented in these sites, their information behaviour was not analysed, although it undoubtedly influences information changes performed by the sellers.

Practical implications

The practical contribution of this study is the ontology of the real estate world. Its assimilation by real estate websites would promote the development of their sites and user services. It would also enable ad sharing amongst the various websites and enable efficient searches by search engines. In addition the tools and measures that the authors developed will allow continued monitoring and analysis of user information change patterns.

Originality/value

To the best of the knowledge this is the first study to examine and compare real estate websites’ quality and evaluate their information reliability as wisdom of the crowds.

Details

Online Information Review, vol. 38 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1468-4527

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2022

Tingneyuc Sekac, Sujoy Kumar Jana and Indrajit Pal

The climate change and related impacts are experienced around the world. There arise different triggering factors to climate change and impact. The purpose of this study…

13

Abstract

Purpose

The climate change and related impacts are experienced around the world. There arise different triggering factors to climate change and impact. The purpose of this study is to figure out how changes in vegetation cover may or may not have an impact to climate change. The research will produce ideas for vegetation preservation and replant.

Design/methodology/approach

The investigation was probed for 34 years’ time period starting from the year 1981 to 2015. After testing and checking for serial autocorrelation in the vegetation data series, Mann–Kendal nonparametric statistical evaluation was carried out to investigate vegetation cover trends. Sen’s method was deployed to investigate the magnitude of vegetation cover change in natural differential vegetation index (NDVI) unit per year. Furthermore, the ArcGIS spatial analysis tools were used for the calculation of mean NDVI distribution and also for carrying out the spatial investigation of trends at each specific location within the study region.

Findings

The yearly mean NDVI during the study period was observed to have a decreasing trend. The mean NDVI value ranges between 0.32 and 0.98 NDVI unit, and hence, this means from less or poor vegetated zones to higher or healthier vegetated zones. The mean NDVI value was seen decreasing toward the highlands regions. The NDVI-rainfall correlation was observed to be stronger than the NDVI-temperature correlation. The % area coverage of NDVI-rainfall positive correlation was higher than the negative correlation. The % area coverage of NDVI-temperature negative correlation was higher than the positive correlation within the study region. Rainfall is seen as a highly influencing climatic factor for vegetation growth than the temperature within the study region.

Originality/value

This study in this country is a new approach for climate change monitoring and planning for the survival of the people of Papua New Guinea, especially for the farmer and those who is living in the coastal area.

Details

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-5908

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 September 2007

Tracy Anna Rickman and Robert M. Cosenza

The purpose of this paper is to examine the theoretical/conceptual development and application of weblog‐textmining to fashion forecasting in general and street fashion…

12652

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the theoretical/conceptual development and application of weblog‐textmining to fashion forecasting in general and street fashion trending in particular.

Design/methodology/approach

The current methods of forecasting cannot keep pace with the changing dynamics of the marketplace – mostly due to the rampant diffusion of data/information. The company that can tap the continual flow of data/information in the present, contrast it with a stored set of information from the past, and adjust based on repeated cycles, will have the best insight into the lingering trend, changing trend, or dynamic trend. The paper uses a simple example to explain blog trend analysis using Nielsen BuzzMetrics' BlogPulse.

Findings

The study finds that to make fashion weblog forecasting a reality, there needs to be a rich accumulation of fashion communication in structured blogs. In addition, there needs to be a classification of the various forms of industry web text, web venue. Furthermore, rich research traditions must be in place to chronicle the cultural, behavioral, linguistic, socioeconomic, and communication behaviors over time for the weblog and the fashion weblogger in particular.

Practical implications

The changing dynamics of the fashion business makes it a good example for understanding the weblog‐text mining approach developed in this paper.

Originality/value

The understanding and implementation of trend forecasting using blogs as data mining sources will add another dimension of forecasting techniques to survive the multi‐channel revolution in fashion marketing.

Details

Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management: An International Journal, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1361-2026

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 March 2020

Cornelis van Dorsser and Poonam Taneja

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The…

2334

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

Findings

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

Research limitations/implications

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

Practical implications

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

Social implications

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

Originality/value

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2018

Bo Edvardsson, Pennie Frow, Elina Jaakkola, Timothy Lee Keiningham, Kaisa Koskela-Huotari, Cristina Mele and Alastair Tombs

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of context in service innovation by developing a conceptual framework that illuminates the key elements and trends in…

2090

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of context in service innovation by developing a conceptual framework that illuminates the key elements and trends in context change.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adopts a service ecosystem lens for understanding how elements and trends in context foster service innovation. A conceptual framework identifying the role of context change in fostering service innovation is developed and justified through illustrations across industry settings of health, retailing, banking and education.

Findings

Context change is conceptualized by three trends – speed, granularity and liquification – that provide an analytical foundation for understanding how changes in the elements of context – space, resources and institutional arrangements – can foster service innovation. The analysis indicates emerging patterns across industries that allow exploring scenarios, grounded in emerging trends and developments in service innovation toward 2050.

Practical implications

Managers are offered a framework to guide service innovation and help them prepare for the future. The paper also suggests areas for further research.

Originality/value

The paper contributes with a new conceptualization of context change to identify and explain service innovation opportunities. Managers are offered a framework to guide service innovation and help them prepare for 2050. The paper also suggests areas for further service innovation research, zooming in on contextual changes to prepare for 2050.

Details

Journal of Service Management, vol. 29 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-5818

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 November 2018

Peiyong Gao and Jiang Zhen

More and more statistics have repeatedly shown that as the economic development has entered the New Normal, the Chinese fiscal system has experienced tremendous changes

2223

Abstract

Purpose

More and more statistics have repeatedly shown that as the economic development has entered the New Normal, the Chinese fiscal system has experienced tremendous changes. Although chance cannot be ruled out, much of those changes indicate trends, and they can even be said to be the result of the law of economic development. These trends and changes have repeatedly demonstrated that, as a reflection and an inevitable result of the economic developing speed shift, structural adjustment and energy conversion, the Chinese fiscal system, far from the conventional operating state, has progressed on a new path. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper systematically analyzes several new trends and changes in the Chinese fiscal system under the New Normal. First, revenue growth has experienced a sharp downward trend, while the tax elasticity coefficient has declined rapidly. Second, fiscal expenditure has risen against the tendency, while the rigidity of expenditure has kept on increasing.

Findings

Considering the present fiscal and taxation system reform with the analysis above, it can be seen that if the reform’s progress for the past two years is slower than expected – thus, preventing the effects of all aspects from a timely achievement – then, in the recent period, the agreement on the fiscal and taxation system reform will be reached and challenges entirely different from the past, including sharp slowdown in revenue growth rate, fiscal expenditure rising against trend and increases in fiscal deficit and government debts will be faced. The factors encouraging the reform are gathering gradually. The growth of the strength to push the reform forward is speeding up. And the pace of the reform in relevant areas is quickening.

Originality/value

In the face of those trends and changes, on the one hand, the authors should deeply understand and accurately grasp them through a comprehensive summary and systematic analysis. On the other hand, a series of conventional ideas, thoughts and strategies should be adjusted comprehensively and duly. Taking a train of new ideas, thoughts and strategies, the authors ought to actively adapt to and initiate a new Chinese fiscal structure under the New Normal of China’s economy.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 November 2020

Peter Granig and Kathrin Hilgarter

Organisations need to tackle emerging trends that affect business models (BM) by modifying, changing or re‐designing their models. Attending this complex environment by…

Abstract

Purpose

Organisations need to tackle emerging trends that affect business models (BM) by modifying, changing or re‐designing their models. Attending this complex environment by understanding trends and the strategies actors use to handle these competing demands is strategically important for innovation management and sustaining organisations.. Therefore, this study aims to investigate how organisations assess and deal with these complex and relevant challenges.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 18 higher management experts between the ages of 27 and 59 years participated in this four-month qualitative interview-based study. The interviews were analysed by using systematic, qualitative content analysis.

Findings

Results showed that all elements of a BM are influenced by emerged trends, and how organisations deal with them can decide whether the impact poses as risk or offers opportunities. Trends trigger two different strategies – reactive and proactive resilience strategies – which are closely related to the change sensitivity of the attributional resilience model, thereby presenting a crucial factor for enhancing resilience. Nevertheless, the proactive resilience strategy seems to be more promising for enhancing organisational resilience regarding the influence of trends on their BM. Moreover, this study found that the usage of foresight methods might be suitable as an important tool for proactive resilience strategy to modification, change or re-design of BM and consequently anticipate trends.

Originality/value

Overall, this study is one of the first that explains how BMs are influenced by trends and how organisations handle them by using organisational resilience strategies.

Details

International Journal of Innovation Science, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-2223

Keywords

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