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The paper published below was prepared by Taylor Ostrander for Frank Knight’s course, Economic Theory, Economics 301, during the Fall 1933 quarter.

This chapter explores the yield curve movements in the interest rate swap markets of four major currencies, the Japanese yen (JPY), the US dollar (USD), the pound sterling (GBP), and the Swiss franc (CHF), by principal component analysis (PCA), focusing on the explanatory power of each driver. Comparing the cumulative proportions of the first three principal components, the “level” changes seem to explain the yield curve movements far better than the “ratio” changes in the case of the JPY (96.1% vs. 38.3%) and CHF (97.2% vs. 41.9%), and they are only marginally worse for the USD (97.7% vs. 98.5%) and GBP (96.5% vs. 98.3%). In all markets, the explanatory power (proportion) of the first PC (PC1) is over 82%, and most of the movements can be explained by it. Furthermore, the explanatory power (cumulative proportion) from PC1 up to the third PC (PC3) is over 96%. Thus, it can be considered that most of the movements can be explained by the first three PCs. In addition, we investigate whether there is a structural change in yield curve movements before and after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 (GFC). If we use daily “level” changes for the PCA, the GFC has no impact on the yield curve movements for all major currencies. The three PCs retain good explanatory power.

The purpose of this paper is to explore how curved road and lane-changing rates affect the stability of traffic flow.

An extended two-lane lattice hydrodynamic model on a curved road accounting for the empirical lane-changing rate is presented. The linear analysis of the new model is discussed, the stability condition and the neutral stability condition are obtained. Also, the mKdV equation and its solution are proposed through nonlinear analysis, which discusses the stability of the extended model in the unstable region. Furthermore, the results of theoretical analysis are verified by numerical simulation.

The empirical lane-changing rate on a curved road is an important factor, which can alleviate traffic congestion.

This paper does not take into account the factors such as slope, the drivers’ characters and so on in the actual traffic, which will have more or less influence on the stability of traffic flow, so there is still a certain gap with the real traffic environment.

The curved road and empirical lane-changing rate are researched simultaneously in a two-lane lattice hydrodynamic models in this paper. The improved model can better reflect the actual traffic, which can also provide a theoretical reference for the actual traffic governance.

The purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical background, methodological extensions, and empirical applications of the Engel curve, which is applied to the research of the change in farmers’ welfare and food demand in China after the economic reform in 1978, compared with the statistics of income and food consumption.

This paper mainly uses the traditional method of Engel curve, which is compared with income growth and food consumption, to study farmers’ welfare improvement in rural China.

The Engel coefficients identify three different stages for farmers’ welfare change after 1978. The first stage is the period between 1978 and 1988, in which farmers’ welfare has been continuously enhanced due to the institutional bonus of the 1978 economic reform and increased government purchase price of agricultural products. The second stage is the period between 1989 and 1995, in which farmers’ welfare has been slightly deteriorated mainly due to the end of institutional reform bonus, suppressed food prices, relative high inflation, and instable political situation. The third stage is the period after 1995, in which farmers’ welfare returns to a growing path, as the dual price system was abolished, the transition from a planned economy to a market economy had been completed, and the government carried out protective policies for agriculture and started to heavily subsidize agriculture. The Engel coefficient still remained at a very high level at 0.59 in 1995, but it continuously decreased to 0.33 in 2015. The welfare enhancement for farmers mainly results from deepened market-oriented reform, protective policies for agriculture, and prevalent off-farm employment. The Engel coefficient is also linked to food demand elasticities. Along with the decreasing Engel coefficient in the past 40 years, income elasticities also continuously decrease from 0.55 in 1978 to 0.08 in 2015. Food demand is very inelastic now, and any further increase in income will not substantially increase food demand any more.

Inequality has not been analyzed.

This paper reviews the methodological advantages of the Engel curves, and uses it to identify different stages of welfare change and estimate income elasticities of food demand for farmers in China after the 1978 economic reform.

The origin and applications of learning curves. Learning curves were first noticed by aircraft producers before World War II. The time taken to assemble a new type of aircraft diminished with each successive airframe built. Typically, the time taken for assembly had dropped by 20% each time the cumulative output had doubled. Later, similar “start up effects” were noticed in many other industries, and were used for contract negotiations and for cost control. Prices of new products, especially chemicals, often fell with time and output according to some kind of “learning curve”. However exceptions to the “learning curve” were sometimes found. Assembly times sometimes ceased to drop, or dropped at different rates at different sites.

This paper lays out the uses of demand curves, both for profit optimization, strategy, tiering and list price setting. This tool is also useful in public policy, such as extending health‐care coverage. It describes how to build a demand curve, and draw useful conclusions.

This paper provides examples of actual demand curves, and how they have been used for new product development, and in out‐maneuvering competitors. Examples are drawn from a number of industries, such as telecom, information services, insurance and electronics, and show how supply and demand are not static, but are highly interactive.

Companies and legislators are not familiar with the demand curves, despite its long history of use in academia. As a result of unfamiliarity with this tool, companies often make costly mistakes in estimates of new product uptake and volumes. If instead of demand curves they rely on price elasticities, companies deprive their senior management of a tool that suggests strategic responses to competitive situations. Surprisingly, many companies have never actually developed a demand curve for their markets.

This article allows managers have not actually seen a real demand curve to see one, and understand what this tool could do for them. It gives examples of new product development and tiering to address multi‐price level markets. In addition, it suggests how public policy makers should focus on shaping supply and demand, rather than imposing floors or ceilings on prices for health‐care coverage. Price ceilings today are responsible for widespread gaps in health care coverage. Finally, the literature on demand curves fails to show how supply and demand are highly interactive.

In order to determine the range of medium temperature zone of road asphalt, it is hoped that the evolution of viscoelastic characteristics of road asphalt under medium temperature state can be deeply explored.

In this paper, the needle penetration test and temperature scanning test were designed for 90# and 70# bitumen as test materials, and the boundary of medium temperature zone of 90# and 70# bitumen was accurately determined by data analysis method. A mathematical model was established based on principal component analysis, and a comprehensive evaluation index was proposed to evaluate the evolution of temperature viscoelastic characteristics of road asphalt by means of standardization and rotational dimensionality reduction.

The test results show that the medium temperature zone of 90# asphalt is [−5 ± 1°C, 38 ± 1°C], and the medium temperature zone of 70# asphalt is [0 ± 1°C, 51 ± 1°C]. According to the viscoelastic response of road asphalt in the medium temperature zone, the medium temperature zone can be divided into three evolution stages: weak viscoelastic stage, viscoelastic equilibrium stage, strong viscoelastic weak stage. Analysis based on the intrinsic viscosity fillip target describing the various intrinsic viscoelastic index represents the viscoelastic properties of bitumen from different angles, and limitations inherent stick fillip for target put forward the integrated the inherent stick fillip mark information, as well as targeted and accurate evaluation of road asphalt temperature comprehensive evaluation indexes in the evolution of the viscoelastic properties of I_M-T. Finally, the temperature data of asphalt pavement in several representative regions of China are compared with the determined medium temperature region, and it is proved that the research on the evolution of viscoelastic characteristics of asphalt pavement under the medium temperature condition has important practical significance.

The boundary of medium temperature zone of 90# and 70# base asphalt was determined, and the viscoelastic characteristic evolution of road asphalt under medium temperature state was studied deeply. Aiming at the limitation of intrinsic viscoelastic index, a comprehensive evaluation index IM-T which not only integrates the information of intrinsic viscoelastic index but also can accurately evaluate the evolution of temperature viscoelastic characteristics in road asphalt is proposed.

The purpose of this paper is to have a deeper understanding of the nonlinear relationship between the impact of climate change on tourism development. Current studies on the effects of climate change on tourism development primarily rely on linear correlation assumptions.

Based on the New Institutional Economics theory, the institutional setting inherently motivates and ensures the growth of the tourism industry. For a precise evaluation of the nonlinear consequences of climate change on tourism, this paper concentrates on Chinese cities between 2011 and 2021, methodically analyzing the influence of climate change on tourism.

The study findings suggest that there is an “inverse U”-shaped nonlinear relationship between climate change and tourism development, initially strengthening and subsequently weakening. Based on these findings, the research further delves into how institutional contexts shape the nonlinear association between climate change and tourism growth. It was found that in a higher institutional backdrop, the “inverse U” curve tends to flatten and surpass the curve adjusted for a lesser institutional context. Upon deeper mechanism analysis, it was observed that cities with more advanced marketization, improved industrial restructuring and enhanced educational growth exhibit a more evident “inverse U”-shaped nonlinear connection between climate change and tourism evolution.

First, previous studies on climate change and tourism development largely rely on questionnaire data (Hu et al., 2022). In contrast to these studies, this paper uses dynamic panel data, which to some extent overcomes the subjectivity and difficulty of causality identification in questionnaire data, making our research conclusions more accurate and reliable. Second, this study breaks through the linear relationship hypothesis of previous literature regarding climate change and tourism development. By evaluating the nonlinear relationship of climate change to tourism development from the institutional pressure perspective, it more intricately delineates their interplay mechanism, expanding and supplementing the research literature on the relationship mechanism between climate change and tourism development. Thirdly, the conclusions of this study are beneficial for policymakers to better understand and assess the scope of climate change impacts. It also aids relevant departments in clarifying the direction of institutional environment optimization to elevate the level of tourism development when faced with adverse impacts brought about by climate change.