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1 – 10 of over 1000
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Łukasz Kurowski and Paweł Smaga

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies…

Abstract

Purpose

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.

Findings

Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.

Practical implications

Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.

Originality/value

The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 August 2023

Thang Ngoc Doan, Dong Phu Do and Dat Van Luong

This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data from 2011 to 2021. Monetary stance is a multivariate index based on the growth rates of money supply and domestic credit. A large set of articles published in five Vietnam daily newspapers are utilized to construct a view of the media's favorableness to the monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses hand-collected data from 211 articles published in five newspapers from December 2011 to September 2021 in order to examine the relationship between the monetary stance and the media's favorableness to monetary policy. Following the studies of He and Pauwels (2008) and Xiong (2012), the authors constructed a multivariate stance index to capture most of the important changes in the SBV's monetary policy stance.

Findings

The study's main findings are that a change in monetary stance from easing to neutral/tightening, or from neutral to tightening, is greatly appreciated by the media. The study's findings are robust, especially in terms of alternative measures of the media's favorableness and monetary policy variables.

Research limitations/implications

These findings have important policy implications for implementing SBV's monetary policy.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is that the authors are the first to study the nexus of multivariate monetary stance and the media's favorableness to a central bank's non-inflation-targeting mandate. In particular, the study’s findings confirm that the SBV's multivariate monetary stance affects the media's favorableness, whereas the effect of inflation is statistically insignificant.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 February 2023

Xian Wang, Yijian Zhao, Qingyi Wang, Huang Yixing and Gabedava George

This paper focuses on the orientation of the economy expressed in the communication of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) of China and its relation with the stock market…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper focuses on the orientation of the economy expressed in the communication of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) of China and its relation with the stock market. This study seeks to explore which orientation of the economy may have a stronger impact on the rise of the stock market. It proposes words connoting orientation of the economy (WOE) that is closely related to the stock market, and different WOE has different impacts on the stock market in terms of intensity. The study aims to provide investors with better investment strategies by identifying the stronger developmental WOE.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper opted for an exploratory study using the textual analysis approach, based on a corpus of 28 CEWC communications spanning from 1994 to 2021. The raw corpus amounted to 50,754 words in total that are treated with noise reduction method and record an effective corpus of 39,591.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights into the close relationship of the WOE of the CEWC to the stock market, and different WOE has different impacts on the stock market in terms of intensity. It suggests that WOE connoting development may forecast a rising stock market if it is nearly 40% higher than the other two WOEs by impact index.

Research limitations/implications

As WOE is only proven in the CEWC, this paper has its limitations in the scope of samples. It is necessary to apply WOE to more Central Bank communication (CBC) and countries. It is desirable to apply the Gunning–Fog index.

Practical implications

The paper includes implications for investors to read out the orientation of the economy and the degree of different WOEs. Investors are keener to know “what” degree of the CEWC leads to the rise/fall of the stock market. The impact index can be an indicator of a tendency of the stock market, which upgrades the rationality of investment decisions.

Social implications

This paper fulfills words connoting the orientation of economy as an identified linguistic feature, which the impact of CEWC on stockmarket can be measured.

Originality/value

Previous academic research studies mostly focus on the impact on stock market from the language features of CBC, rather than that from the more influential body, CEWC communication. This study seeks to provide the relationship of CEWC communication and the time length of the impact on the stock prices.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Peterson K. Ozili

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are determinants of global interest in CBDC.

Design/methodology/approach

Google Trends data were analyzed using two-stage least square regression estimation.

Findings

There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in sustainable development and global interest in CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Nigeria eNaira CBDC. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the eNaira CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the China eCNY. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Sand Dollar and DCash.

Originality/value

The literature has not empirically examined whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC. This study fills a gap in the literature by investigating whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC.

Details

Digital Transformation and Society, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0761

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 April 2023

Anamari Irizarry Quintero, Javier Rodríguez Ramírez and Camille Villafañe-Rodríguez

Written communication differences across cultures can set the tone for effective or disastrous business relationships. Although English has been the go-to language in business…

1067

Abstract

Purpose

Written communication differences across cultures can set the tone for effective or disastrous business relationships. Although English has been the go-to language in business, managers from different countries can significantly differ in how they convey the firms' information. This study explored these differences by examining the documentation presented by foreign corporations as part of their initial public offering (IPO) in the USA, particularly Chinese firms.

Design/methodology/approach

This work examined cultural-related differences in written communications by looking at foreign corporations' descriptions of their strengths, strategies and challenges included in F-1 documents submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of the IPO process. The sample consisted of 97 American depositary receipts (ADRs) identified in the Bank of New York Mellon's ADR directory from 2003 to 2015.

Findings

This study found that Chinese firms significantly differ from other countries' firms in depicting their strengths, strategies and challenges.

Research limitations/implications

Limitations have to do with the sample size. Future research may address this by considering other depositary markets, not just the USA.

Originality/value

The results will be significant for potential ADRs investors; they must be conscious of these differences in the written documentation submitted by Chinese firms compared to other foreign firms. The market should also be aware of these differences, as the Chinese seem less open to sharing information about the under spinning of their operations and financial prospects.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 28 no. 55
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 September 2023

Gabriel Caldas Montes and Raime Rolando Rodríguez Díaz

Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country…

Abstract

Purpose

Business confidence is crucial to firm decisions, but it is deeply related to professional forecasters' expectations. Since Brazil is an important inflation targeting country, this paper investigates whether monetary policy credibility and disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations relate to business confidence in Brazil. The study considers the aggregate business confidence index and the business confidence indexes for 11 industrial sectors in Brazil.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors run ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions to assess the direct effects of disagreements in expectation and monetary policy credibility on business confidence. The authors also make use of Wald test of parameter equality to observe whether there are “offsetting effects” of monetary credibility in mitigating the effects of both disagreements in expectations on business confidence. Besides, the authors run quantile regressions to analyze the effect of the main explanatory variables of interest on business confidence in contexts where business confidence is low (pessimistic) or high (optimistic).

Findings

Disagreements in inflation expectations reduce business confidence, monetary policy credibility improves business confidence and credibility mitigates the adverse effects of disagreements in expectations on business confidence. The sectors most sensitive to monetary policy credibility are Rubber, Motor Vehicles, Metallurgy, Metal Products and Cellulose. The findings also suggest the effect of disagreement in inflation expectations on business confidence decreases as confidence increases, and the effect of monetary policy credibility on business confidence increases as entrepreneurs are more optimistic.

Originality/value

While there is evidence that monetary policy credibility is beneficial to the economy, there are no studies on the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Besides, there are no studies that have investigated whether monetary policy credibility can mitigate the effects of disagreements in inflation and interest rate expectations on business confidence (at the aggregate and sectoral levels). Therefore, there are gaps to be filled in the literature addressing business confidence, monetary policy credibility and disagreements in expectations. These issues are particularly important to inflation targeting developing countries.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 August 2020

Abdelkader Derbali, Lamia Jamel, Monia Ben Ltaifa, Ahmed K. Elnagar and Ali Lamouchi

This paper provides an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) meeting dates and production announcements for the dynamic…

1065

Abstract

Purpose

This paper provides an important perspective to the predictive capacity of Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) meeting dates and production announcements for the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) between Bitcoin and energy commodities returns and volatilities during the period from August 11, 2015 to March 31, 2018.

Design/methodology/approach

To assess empirically the unanticipated component of the US and ECB monetary policy, the authors pursue the Kuttner's approach and use the federal funds futures and the ECB funds futures to assess the surprise component. The authors use the approach of DCC as introduced by Engle (2002) during the period from August 11, 2015 to March 31, 2018.

Findings

The authors’ results suggest strong significant DCCs between Bitcoin and energy commodity markets if monetary policy surprises are incorporated in variance. These results confirmed the financialization of Bitcoin and commodity energy markets. Finally, the DCC between Bitcoin and energy commodity markets appears to respond considerably more in the case of Fed surprises than ECB surprises.

Originality/value

This study is a crucial topic for policymakers and portfolio risk managers.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 June 2020

Sajad Ahmad Bhat, Bandi Kamaiah and Debashis Acharya

Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against…

3088

Abstract

Purpose

Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes.

Findings

The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect.

Practical implications

The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy.

Originality/value

The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macro-econometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 25 no. 50
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 November 2021

Thuy Hang Duong

Inflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of…

3504

Abstract

Purpose

Inflation targeting has increasingly become a popular monetary framework since its first introduction in New Zealand at the beginning of 1990. However, the causality effects of this policy on economic performance, particularly in periods of economic turmoil remain controversial. Thus, this paper re-examines the treatment effect of inflation targeting on two important macro indicators which are inflation rate and output growth with the focus on emerging market economies. The global financial crisis, which is known as the great recession since the last decade, is investigated as an exogenous shock to test for the effectiveness of this popular regime.

Design/methodology/approach

The difference-in-difference approach in the fixed-model is employed for this investigation using a balanced panel data of 54 countries with 15 inflation-targeting countries for the period 2002 to 2010.

Findings

The examination finds that there is no significant difference in terms of the inflation rate and gross domestic product growth over the whole research period between the treatment and control groups. However, the outcome suggests that emerging economies can control the increase in inflation rate when the economy has to cope with the exogenous uncertainties.

Research limitations/implications

This finding indicates important policy implications for central banks in many countries.

Originality/value

Inflation targeting can help emerging countries to reduce an increase in inflation rate in the crisis period without many trade-offs in the growth of output.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 June 2022

Yogeeswari Subramaniam and Tajul Ariffin Masron

Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and inflation with distinct levels of finance.

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Abstract

Purpose

Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, this paper provides new evidence on the relationship between finance and inflation with distinct levels of finance.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample consisted of 10 high inflation countries using time series data for the period of 1992–2020. These 10 countries recorded the world's highest inflation rates in 2017.

Findings

The findings demonstrate that there is a threshold effect on the finance–inflation relationship. Whilst the effects of finance are consistently positive for below and above the threshold models, financial depth above the threshold tends to aggravate the inflation level.

Practical implications

These results disclose that financial depth could be the cause of high inflation in the top 10 countries and thus, is not necessarily welcome as too rapid of a price increase may in turn reverse the prospect of economic growth. Searching and strategizing for the optimal level of financing is crucial in facilitating price stability and economic growth.

Originality/value

The authors believe that the effect of financial depth on inflation is characterised by being desirable to certain extent and undesirable if over-financing is beyond the optimum level. Therefore, in this study, the authors have introduced the threshold modelling as the potential strategy to connect financial depth and inflation.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

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