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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Łukasz Kurowski and Paweł Smaga

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies…

Abstract

Purpose

Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.

Findings

Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.

Practical implications

Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.

Originality/value

The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 September 2021

Janusz Brzeszczyński, Jerzy Gajdka, Tomasz Schabek and Ali M Kutan

This study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging…

Abstract

Purpose

This study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical analysis is executed using the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announcements about its monetary policy covering the data from the broad financial market in its three main segments: stock market, foreign exchange market and bonds market. The reactions are measured relative to the changes in the NBP announcements and also with respect to investors' expectations. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models with dummy variables are used as the main methodological tool.

Findings

Bonds market and foreign exchange market are the most sensitive market segments, while interest rate and money supply are the most influential types of announcements. The changes of the revealed new macroeconomic figures had more impact on assets' prices movements than the deviations from their expectations. Moreover, greater diversity of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members' opinions on the voted motions, captured in the MPC voting reports, is associated with more cases of statistically significant NBP communication events.

Practical implications

The findings have direct relevance for fund managers, portfolio analysts, investors and also for financial market regulators.

Originality/value

The results provide novel evidence about how the emerging financial market responds to monetary policy announcements. They help understand the nature of the impact of public information on financial assets' valuation and on movements of their prices, analysed comprehensively in three market segments, in the emerging market environment.

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2023

Mohamed A. Ayadi, Walid Ben Omrane, Jiayu Wang and Robert Welch

This study aims to better understand the effects of speeches as a valuable communication tool for central banks. It extends the analysis of the effects of public speeches on jumps…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to better understand the effects of speeches as a valuable communication tool for central banks. It extends the analysis of the effects of public speeches on jumps to determine whether individual speakers matter partly because of their name, position or institution.

Design/methodology/approach

This study detects intraday jumps using a robust-to-jump volatility estimator that accounts for deterministic seasonality. As a result, this study removes spurious jumps that occur when volatility is high and consider the relatively small jumps that occur when volatility is low. After identifying jumps, this study examines their reactions to senior official speeches and macroeconomic news surrounding the US and European Union (EU) financial crises.

Findings

Despite having the most influential individual speakers, this study finds that the impact of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) is mitigated because the two institutions have a relatively small impact on currency jumps. This finding shows that the speaker’s name is more important than his or her institution affiliation. While the Federal Reserve Bank President and Chief Executive, as well as ECB board members, significantly reduce jump sizes, particularly during the EU crisis period, both the Fed Chairman and the ECB President increase the magnitude of the jump in both the US crisis and noncrisis periods, contributing to market instability.

Practical implications

The implications of the results include international portfolio management, currency derivatives pricing and hedging, risk management and market efficiency.

Originality/value

The findings contribute to a better understanding of the effects of senior official speech attributes on currency jumps in various economic states. The results raise questions about the speaker’s name, institution and position’s effectiveness in calming markets and reducing uncertainty.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 August 2023

Thang Ngoc Doan, Dong Phu Do and Dat Van Luong

This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the effects of the monetary stance on the media's favorable (or otherwise) attitude to the State Bank of Vietnam's (SBV) monetary policy using monthly data from 2011 to 2021. Monetary stance is a multivariate index based on the growth rates of money supply and domestic credit. A large set of articles published in five Vietnam daily newspapers are utilized to construct a view of the media's favorableness to the monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses hand-collected data from 211 articles published in five newspapers from December 2011 to September 2021 in order to examine the relationship between the monetary stance and the media's favorableness to monetary policy. Following the studies of He and Pauwels (2008) and Xiong (2012), the authors constructed a multivariate stance index to capture most of the important changes in the SBV's monetary policy stance.

Findings

The study's main findings are that a change in monetary stance from easing to neutral/tightening, or from neutral to tightening, is greatly appreciated by the media. The study's findings are robust, especially in terms of alternative measures of the media's favorableness and monetary policy variables.

Research limitations/implications

These findings have important policy implications for implementing SBV's monetary policy.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is that the authors are the first to study the nexus of multivariate monetary stance and the media's favorableness to a central bank's non-inflation-targeting mandate. In particular, the study’s findings confirm that the SBV's multivariate monetary stance affects the media's favorableness, whereas the effect of inflation is statistically insignificant.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Rafał Wolski, Monika Bolek, Jerzy Gajdka, Janusz Brzeszczyński and Ali M. Kutan

This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers, as a group of institutional investors, make decisions in response to central bank’s communication as well as other information in relation to various behavioural inclinations.

Design/methodology/approach

A comprehensive study was conducted based on a questionnaire, which is composed of three main parts exploring: (1) general information about the funds under the management of the surveyed group of fund managers, (2) factors that influence the investment process with an emphasis on the National Bank of Poland communication and (3) behavioural inclinations of the surveyed group. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was applied for measuring the reliability of the survey questionnaire and then chi-squared test was used to investigate the relationships between the answers provided in the survey.

Findings

The central bank’s communication matters for investors, but its impact on their decisions appears to be only moderate. Interest rates were found to be the most important announcements for investment fund managers. The stock market was the most popular market segment where the investments were made. The ultra-short time horizon played no, or only small, role in the surveyed fund managers’ decisions as most of them invested in a longer horizon covering 1 to 5 years. Moreover, most respondents declared that they considered in their decisions the information about market expectations published in the media. Finally, majority of the fund managers manifested limited rationality and were subject to behavioural biases, but the decisions and behavioural inclinations were independent and, in most cases, they did not influence each other.

Practical implications

The results reported in this study can be used in practice to better understand and to improve the fund managers’ decision-making processes.

Originality/value

Apart from the commonly tested behavioural biases in the group of institutional investors in the existing literature, such as loss aversion, disposition effect or overconfidence, this paper also focuses on the less intensively analysed behavioural inclinations, i.e. framing, illusion of the control, representativeness, sunk cost effect and fast thinking. The originality of this study further lies in the way the research was conducted through interviews with fund managers, who were found to be subject to behavioural biases, although those behavioural inclinations did not influence their investment decisions. This finding indicates that professionalism and collectivism in the group of institutional investors protect them from irrationality.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Rosella Carè, Rabia Fatima and Nathalie Lèvy

The concept of banking reputation has gained significant attention due to its relevance in the banking industry. A strong reputation has become crucial for a bank’s success, as it…

Abstract

Purpose

The concept of banking reputation has gained significant attention due to its relevance in the banking industry. A strong reputation has become crucial for a bank’s success, as it affects trust, credibility and stakeholders' perceptions. However, understanding and managing reputation in the banking sector involves several challenges. This study aims to analyze the field of banking reputation research through bibliometric analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

It explores the evolution of research in this area, identifies key journals, articles and authors, examines the main research streams, and identifies research fronts and opportunities for future advancement.

Findings

The findings reveal that banking reputation research has evolved over time, with multiple perspectives and viewpoints. Key journals and authors in the field are identified, and leading research streams are highlighted. The study also uncovers the conceptual and intellectual structure of the research domain, providing insights into the complex and multidimensional nature of banking reputation. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of corporate social responsibility, sustainability practices and gender diversity in shaping a bank’s reputation. These factors play a significant role in attracting and retaining customers, accessing financial markets and securing funding.

Research limitations/implications

The results contribute to the existing body of knowledge and provide researchers and practitioners with valuable insights for further exploration.

Originality/value

The paper concludes by outlining potential avenues for future research in the field of banking reputation.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 February 2023

Xian Wang, Yijian Zhao, Qingyi Wang, Huang Yixing and Gabedava George

This paper focuses on the orientation of the economy expressed in the communication of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) of China and its relation with the stock market…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper focuses on the orientation of the economy expressed in the communication of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) of China and its relation with the stock market. This study seeks to explore which orientation of the economy may have a stronger impact on the rise of the stock market. It proposes words connoting orientation of the economy (WOE) that is closely related to the stock market, and different WOE has different impacts on the stock market in terms of intensity. The study aims to provide investors with better investment strategies by identifying the stronger developmental WOE.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper opted for an exploratory study using the textual analysis approach, based on a corpus of 28 CEWC communications spanning from 1994 to 2021. The raw corpus amounted to 50,754 words in total that are treated with noise reduction method and record an effective corpus of 39,591.

Findings

The paper provides empirical insights into the close relationship of the WOE of the CEWC to the stock market, and different WOE has different impacts on the stock market in terms of intensity. It suggests that WOE connoting development may forecast a rising stock market if it is nearly 40% higher than the other two WOEs by impact index.

Research limitations/implications

As WOE is only proven in the CEWC, this paper has its limitations in the scope of samples. It is necessary to apply WOE to more Central Bank communication (CBC) and countries. It is desirable to apply the Gunning–Fog index.

Practical implications

The paper includes implications for investors to read out the orientation of the economy and the degree of different WOEs. Investors are keener to know “what” degree of the CEWC leads to the rise/fall of the stock market. The impact index can be an indicator of a tendency of the stock market, which upgrades the rationality of investment decisions.

Social implications

This paper fulfills words connoting the orientation of economy as an identified linguistic feature, which the impact of CEWC on stockmarket can be measured.

Originality/value

Previous academic research studies mostly focus on the impact on stock market from the language features of CBC, rather than that from the more influential body, CEWC communication. This study seeks to provide the relationship of CEWC communication and the time length of the impact on the stock prices.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Peterson K. Ozili

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are determinants of global interest in CBDC.

Design/methodology/approach

Google Trends data were analyzed using two-stage least square regression estimation.

Findings

There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in sustainable development and global interest in CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Nigeria eNaira CBDC. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the eNaira CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the China eCNY. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Sand Dollar and DCash.

Originality/value

The literature has not empirically examined whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC. This study fills a gap in the literature by investigating whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC.

Details

Digital Transformation and Society, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0761

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Vojtěch Koňařík, Zuzana Kučerová and Daniel Pakši

Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of…

Abstract

Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of economic agents to anchor them close to the level of the inflation target. However, economic agents are affected by the past and current macroeconomic situation when they form their expectations concerning future inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations in Czechia, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of Czech analysts' and managers' inflation expectations. We find that both actual and past inflation have a substantial impact on inflation expectations of the agents surveyed. We also identify backward-looking behaviour among these agents: persistence in inflation expectations of up to two quarters was detected. Moreover, financial analysts formed inflation expectations more in line with economic theory, while company managers evinced expectations similar to those of consumers.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2023

Emna Trabelsi and Asma Ben Khaled

The implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty…

Abstract

Purpose

The implementation of monetary policy by the central bank is an ongoing topic of discussion. This paper aims to explore monetary policy transmission shocks in times of uncertainty using the new World uncertainty index (WUI). The authors investigate the impact of crises, wars and pandemic shocks on selected macroeconomic variables.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use unit root tests, structural vector autoregressive model and the Granger causality test according to Toda–Yamamoto with quarterly data over 1999–2022.

Findings

The results of this study show that in the short run, there is a unidirectional relationship between the money market rate and WUI, while the relationship between the latter and the money supply (M2) is bidirectional. The short-term effect runs from WUI to inflation. In the long run, the variance decomposition shows that global uncertainty explains around 12% of inflation pressures. The uncertainty caused by special events in the world creates positive shocks on inflation in Tunisia, which decreases the ability of the central bank to control inflation.

Research limitations/implications

The results have implications over necessary and urgent actions to be implemented for a progressive economic recovery but point to a necessary transition to an inflation-targeting regime.

Originality/value

Examining monetary policy under uncertainty is a recent phenomenon. The authors purposely use a novel WUI by Ahir et al. (2022) that is unexploited in literature.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

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