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Conventional wisdom states that catastrophe risk securities show no or little correlation with stock and bond markets, and offer significant attractions to investors providing a good diversification of risks. This study examines the correlation between catastrophe risk securities and portfolios of other equities by analyzing catastrophe effects on the Japanese stock market.

Using catastrophe data from SwissRe Sigma publications and stock returns from the Pacific‐Basin Capital Markets database, this paper analyzes stock and abnormal returns in the Japanese stock market using event study methodology.

For the Japanese stock market as a whole, there is no significant catastrophe effect. The results indicate a significant negative correlation between catastrophe loss amount and the insurance industry's equity returns and abnormal returns, a significant positive correlation with the construction industry, but no significant correlation with the real estate industry. This paper also analyzes the impact of catastrophe causalities. The results show little evidence on the significance of these variables.

This study provides important insights to the insurance/reinsurance industry in the Japanese risk market for catastrophe property and mortality risk securitization and to investors who are interested in further improvement of their portfolio risk/return profile by including catastrophe risk securities.

Due to climate change and an increasing concentration of the world’s population in vulnerable areas, how to manage catastrophe risk efficiently and cover disaster losses fairly is still a universal dilemma.

This paper applies a law and economic approach.

China’s mechanism for managing catastrophic disaster risk is in many ways unique. It emphasizes government responsibilities and works well in many respects, especially in disaster emergency relief. Nonetheless, China’s mechanism which has the vestige of a centrally planned economy needs reform.

I propose a catastrophe insurance market-enhancing framework which marries the merits of both the market and government to manage catastrophe risks. There are three pillars of the framework: (i) sustaining a strong and capable government; (ii) government enhancement of the market, neither supplanting nor retarding it; (iii) legalizing the relationship between government and market to prevent government from undermining well-functioning market operations. A catastrophe insurance market-enhancing framework may provide insights for developing catastrophe insurance in China and other transitional nations.

First, this paper analyzes China’s mechanism for managing catastrophic disaster risks and China’s approach which emphasizes government responsibilities will shed light on solving how to manage catastrophe risk efficiently and cover disaster losses fairly. Second, this paper starts a broader discussion about government stimulation of developing catastrophe insurance and this framework can stimulate attention to solve the universal dilemma.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative risk assessment method for agricultural products cold chain logistics to assess the condition of the fresh agricultural products cold chain process objectively and accurately.

A risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics is designed on the basis of the risk identification for the process of agricultural products cold chain logistics. This paper first uses catastrophe progression method and a new maximum deviation method to build an improved catastrophe progression assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. In order to verify the reliability and validity of the model, two representative enterprises are selected as the case in the study.

The results in the empirical research indicate strong support for the assessment model and coincide with the reality. The risk assessment index system can also reflect the key risk factors from agricultural products cold chain logistics scientifically. In addition, the improved catastrophe progression assessment method proposed in this paper can be scientific and reasonable to predict risk.

This paper contributes to provide a new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. The new model overcomes the limitation of subjective empowerment and it increases the objectivity and scientificity in the process of cold chain logistics risk assessment. This paper also shows that practitioners involved in the field of products cold chain logistics can manage the potential risk by a set of scientific methods for assessing the risk before the accident.

The paper provides a practical guideline to practitioners, especially for cold chain logistics managers, relevant management departments, and cold chain logistics management consultants. It is proved that the new risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics can help them assess the risk scientifically and reasonably.

Although the calculation is simple, the new model can overcome the limitation of subjective empowerment scientifically and reasonably, and thus has important practical value.

This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.

This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible.

Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

Catastrophe (CAT) events associated with natural catastrophes and man-made disasters cause profound impacts on the insurance industry. This research thus reviews the impact of CAT risk on the insurance industry and how traditional reinsurance and securitized risk-transfer instruments are used for managing CAT risk.

This research reviews the impact of CAT risk on the insurance industry and how traditional reinsurance and securitized risk-transfer instruments are used for managing CAT risk. Apart from many negative influences, CAT events can increase the net revenue of the insurance industry around CAT events and improve insurance demand over the post-CAT periods. The underwriting cycle of reinsurance causes inefficiencies in transferring CAT risks. Securitized risk-transfer instruments resolve some inefficiencies of the reinsurance market, but are subject to moral hazard, basis risk, credit risk, regulatory uncertainty, etc. The authors introduce some popular securitized solutions and use Merton's structural framework to demonstrate how to value these CAT-linked securities. The hybrid solutions by combining reinsurance with securitized CAT instruments are expected to offer promising applications for CAT risk management.

The authors introduce some popular securitized solutions and use Merton's structural framework to demonstrate how to value these CAT-linked securities. The hybrid solutions by combining reinsurance with securitized CAT instruments are expected to offer promising applications for CAT risk management.

This research reviews a broad array of impacts of CAT risks on the (re)insurance industry. CAT events challenge (re)insurance capacity and influence insurers' supply decisions and reconstruction costs in the aftermath of catastrophes. While losses from natural catastrophes are the primary threat to property–casualty insurers, the mortality risk posed by influenza pandemics is a leading CAT risk for life insurers. At the same time, natural catastrophes and man-made disasters cause distinct impacts on (re)insures. Man-made disasters can increase the correlation between insurance stocks and the overall market, and natural catastrophes reduce the above correlation. It should be noted that huge CAT losses can also improve (re)insurance demand during the postevent period and thus bring long-term effects to the (re)insurance industry.

Catastrophe theory can directly deal with discontinuity without any connection with the special inner mechanism, which makes it suitable for system research, whose inner action is unknown but outer one can be observed. There are many inner factors, which affect the bearing capacity of pile, it is different to ascertain bearing capacity of pile. The purpose of this paper is to present a new calculation method of bearing capacity of pile by the catastrophe theory.

The cusp model of catastrophe theory and its expression are discussed in this paper. By means of mechanical model analysis, bearing capacity of pile is systematically studied coupling catastrophe steady mechanism with equilibrium conditions of single pile. The settlement of top pile is transformed into the normal form of cusp catastrophe. The relationship between the settlement of top pile and vertical bearing capability of pile is built.

Vertical bearing capacity of single pile was deduced by means of energy principle and catastrophe theory based on settlement of critical instability of pile.

Accessibility and availability of the constitutive equation of concrete of pile and parameter are the main limitations which model will be applied.

A very useful reference for design processes engineers.

The estimated results of the example correspond to one of practical experience, which provides a basis for design of vertical bearing capacity of single pile.

It is essential for the welfare and growth of a society that it is able to share risk efficiently in the economy. However, extreme events have increased enormously during the last decades, so that catastrophe risks seem to become uninsurable in a free-market economy. With insurance-linked securities (ILS) or catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), the limits of insurability can be ex-tended by using the resources of capital markets worldwide. Interestingly, to date the issuers of cat bonds must guarantee excessively high returns in order to attract investors from the financial markets. Therefore, the authors aim to discuss in this paper the hypothesis that at least parts of these excessively high returns can be explained by an individual innovation resistance to cat bonds.

In the first step, the authors examine the criteria for insurability of catastrophe risks and explore the potential reasons for lack of insurance, specifically for extreme events such as catastrophic environmental risks. The authors especially focus on the criteria which are considered to be problematic for the insurance of catastrophic events. In the next step, the authors discuss the new financial products “ILS” or “cat bonds” and analyze to what extent ILS represent an innovative opportunity to increase the insurability of catastrophe risks. Starting from the model of the consumer resistance by RAM, the authors consider different factors that can prevent the acceptance of ILS by private investors.

The authors found out that catastrophe risks do not really fulfil important actuarial criteria in order to be insurable. Thus, insurance exists only if risk can be transferred, not only to reinsurance companies but also to capital markets (through securitization or catastrophe options). In line with Ram's seminal model of consumer resistance, the authors assume that product-related, diffusion mechanism-related and psychographic factors influence individuals' resistance to cat bonds. In particular, the authors expect that perceptions of immorality influence private investors' decision-making. Within this context, Robin and Reidenbach's “Multi-dimensional ethics”-scale represents a possibility to assess perceptions of immorality.

In this paper, the authors provide a new approach to explain the excess spreads on cat bonds versus comparable corporate bonds. These abnormal high turns from cat bonds have been subject of intensive research in the last decade. To date, the insurance literature has identified “novelty premium”, “market size” and “cliff risk” as the reasons for the excess spreads. The authors assume that at least parts of these excessively high returns can be explained by an individual innovation resistance against ILS. In the authors' opinion, persuasive communication can be used to alleviate individual resistance towards ILS. The paper provides implications for management and suggestions for further research.

Property and casualty (“P&C”) insurance companies rely on “risk capital” to absorb large losses that unexpectedly deplete claims‐paying resources and reduce underwriting capacity. The purpose of this paper is to review the similarities and differences between two different types of risk capital raised by insurers to cover losses arising from natural catastrophes: internal risk capital provided by investors in insurance company debt and equity; and external risk capital provided by third parties. The paper also explores the distinctions between four types of external catastrophe risk capital: reinsurance, industry loss warranties, catastrophe derivatives, and insurance‐linked securities. Finally, how the credit crisis has impacted alternative sources of catastrophe risk capital in different ways is considered.

The discussion is based on the conceptual framework for analyzing risk capital developed by Merton and Perold.

In 2008, the P&C insurance industry was adversely affected by significant natural catastrophe‐related losses, floundering investments, and limited access to capital markets, all of which put upward pressure on catastrophe reinsurance premiums. But the influx of new risk capital that generally accompanies hardening markets has been slower than usual to occur in the wake of the credit crisis. Meanwhile, disparities between the relative costs and benefits of alternative sources of catastrophe risk capital are even more pronounced than usual.

Although many insurance companies focus on how much reinsurance to buy, this paper emphasizes that a more important question is how much risk capital to acquire from external parties (and in what form) vis‐à‐vis investors in the insurance company's own securities.

Islands have long been discussed as refuges from global catastrophes; this paper will evaluate them systematically, discussing both the positives and negatives of islands as refuges. There are examples of isolated human communities surviving for thousands of years on places like Easter Island. Islands could provide protection against many low-level risks, notably including bio-risks. However, they are vulnerable to tsunamis, bird-transmitted diseases and other risks. This paper aims to explore how to use the advantages of islands for survival during global catastrophes.

Preliminary horizon scanning based on the application of the research principles established in the previous global catastrophic literature.

The large number of islands on Earth, and their diverse conditions, increase the chance that one of them will provide protection from a catastrophe. Additionally, this protection could be increased if an island was used as a base for a nuclear submarine refuge combined with underground bunkers and/or extremely long-term data storage. The requirements for survival on islands, their vulnerabilities and ways to mitigate and adapt to risks are explored. Several existing islands, suitable for the survival of different types of risk, timing and budgets, are examined. Islands suitable for different types of refuges and other island-like options that could also provide protection are also discussed.

The possible use of islands as refuges from social collapse and existential risks has not been previously examined systematically. This paper contributes to the expanding research on survival scenarios.