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This study aims to propose a risk-induced game theoretic forecasting model to predict average daily rate (ADR) under COVID-19, using an advanced recurrent neural network.

Using three data sets from upper-midscale hotels in three locations (i.e. urban, interstate and suburb), from January 1, 2018, to August 31, 2020, three long-term, short-term memory (LSTM) models were evaluated against five traditional forecasting models.

The models proposed in this study outperform traditional methods, such that the simplest LSTM model is more accurate than most of the benchmark models in two of the three tested hotels. In particular, the results show that traditional methods are inefficient in hotels with rapid fluctuations of demand and ADR, as observed during the pandemic. In contrast, LSTM models perform more accurately for these hotels.

This study is limited by its use of American data and data from midscale hotels as well as only predicting ADR.

This study produced a reliable, accurate forecasting model considering risk and competitor behavior.

This paper extends the application of game theory principles to ADR forecasting and combines it with the concept of risk for forecasting during uncertain times.

This study is the first study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to use actual hotel data from the COVID-19 pandemic to determine an appropriate neural network forecasting method for times of uncertainty. The application of Shapley value and operational risk obtained a game-theoretic property-level model, which fits best.

The purpose of this study is to discover what attributes of casino buffet restaurants are the most important for customers’ willingness to pay (WTP).

Choice-based conjoint analysis was used in this study to test seven attributes: food, price/value, real price, service, atmosphere, the number of reviews and user-generated star ratings. Sawtooth Software was used to do the conjoint analysis, and a series of significance t-tests were run to determine the significance of each attribute on WTP with Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS).

Based on a survey of 483 respondents who had visited a buffet at a casino within the last two years, this study found that food is ranked as the most significant attribute of a casino buffet restaurant, followed by real price and service quality.

Theoretically, this work is the first to the authors’ knowledge to apply the antecedents of behavioral intention to willingness-to-pay for niche restaurants. Practically, the results of this study will help casino buffet operators as they re-open after COVID-19. Future studies could collect data in the post-pandemic environment and examine WTP at casino buffets in different geographic locations.