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Pride and politics will push Turkey to recession

Location:

TURKEY

A sudden deterioration in US-Turkish relations has plunged Turkey into a debt and liquidity crisis

Widening global imbalances raise geopolitical risks

Location:

INT

The German and US external balances have worsened while China, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s surpluses have improved

Shadow governance to deepen weak African state control

Location:

AFRICA

The preponderance of weak states in sub-Saharan Africa provides ample scope for non-state actors to seize territory

Mozambican northern crises set to escalate

Location:

MOZAMBIQUE

A northern insurgency is worsening alongside various humanitarian crises

COVID-19 spread halts developing nations' GDP catch-up

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Amid fears of another COVID-19 wave in high-income nations, developing nations are struggling to control the first wave

'Shadow governance' fragments Middle East states

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Regional conflicts have given rise to non-state actors that provide alternate types of governance

US-China tariffs will prompt supply chain switching

Location:

INT

Industrial policy in both countries aims to stimulate indigenous manufacturing

Weak long-run growth raises risks to the world economy

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Global GDP will grow by less this decade than the past unless there is a surprise uptick in productivity

Bullish and bearish China growth view is reconcilable

Location:

CHINA

China analysts are diverging between those growing more negative on the long-run prospects and those remaining bullish

Non-bank finance faultlines may fuel explosive crises

Location:

INT

Non-bank financial entities hold half of financial assets, are highly leveraged, and are far less regulated than banks