Search results

Using the next-day and next-week returns of stocks in the Korean market, we examine the association of option volume ratios – i.e. the option-to-stock (O/S) ratio, which is the total volume of put options and call options scaled by total underlying equity volume, and the put-call (P/C) ratio, which is the put volume scaled by total put and call volume – with future returns. We find that O/S ratios are positively related to future returns, but P/C ratios have no significant association with returns. We calculate individual, institutional, and foreign investors’ option ratios to determine which ratios are significantly related to future returns and find that, for all investors, higher O/S ratios predict higher future returns. The predictability of P/C depends on the investors: institutional and individual investors’ P/C ratios are not related to returns, but foreign P/C predicts negative next-day returns. For net-buying O/S ratios, institutional net-buying put-to-stock ratios consistently predict negative future returns. Institutions’ buying and selling put ratios also predict returns. In short, institutional put-to-share ratios predict future returns when we use various option ratios, but individual option ratios do not.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a profitable and original index options trading strategy.

The methodology is based on auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting of the S&P 500 index and the strategy is tested on a large database of S&P 500 Composite index options and benchmarked to the generalized auto regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The forecasts validate a set of criteria as follows: the first criterion checks if the forecasted index is greater or lower than the option strike price and the second criterion if the option premium is underpriced or overpriced. A buy or sell and hold strategy is finally implemented.

The paper demonstrates the valuable contribution of this option trading strategy when trading call and put index options. It especially demonstrates that the ARIMA forecasting method is a valid method for forecasting the S&P 500 Composite index and is superior to the GARCH model in the context of an application to index options trading.

The strategy was applied in the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis over 60 months when the volatility index (VIX) was experiencing a downtrend. The strategy was successful with puts and calls traded on the USA market. The strategy may have a different outcome in a different economic and regional context.

Informed traders may prefer the options market to the stock market for reasons including the leverage effect, transaction costs, restrictions on short sale. Many studies try to predict future returns of stocks using informed traders' behavior in the options market. In this study, we examine whether the trading volume ratios of single stock options have the predictive power for future returns of the underlying stock. By analyzing the stock price responses to the “preliminary announcement of performance” of 36 underlying stocks on the Korea Exchange from November 2014 to March 2021 and the trading volume of options written on those stocks, we investigate the relation between the option ratios, which are the call option volume to put option volume ratio (C/P ratio) and the option volume to stock volume ratio (O/S ratio), and the future returns of the underlying stock. We also examine which ratio is better in predicting the future returns. The authors found that both option ratios showed the statistically significant predictability about future returns of the underlying stock and that the return predictability of the O/S ratio is more robust than that of the C/P ratio. This study shows that indicators generated in the options market can be used to predict future underlying stock returns. Further, the findings of this study contributed to a dearth of literature pertaining to single stock options. The results suggest that the single stock options market is efficient and influences the price discovery in the stock market.

This study examines put-call-futures parity in KOSPI 200 index futures and options markets for the sampling period between January of 2011 and December of 2013 in order to investigate whether option multiplier increasing affects on the arbitragee efficiency of an index option market and permanent relationship between futures and options markets by analyzing minute by minute historical index option and future intraday trading data.

What we find is that the arbitrage opportunities associated with put-call-futures parity increase to 5.16% from 1.75% after increasing option multiplier. Although there is no significant change of discrepancies in ATM options, a slight decrease of mispricing is found in the moneyness where call option is OTM. It turns out, however, that the arbitrage opportunities increase by 3.4 times in the moneyness below 0.97 or above 1.03, after increasing multiplier. Also ex-ante analysis shows that most of arbitrage opportunities disappear within one minute, but the speed of dissipation becomes to decrease in the moneyness where the liquidity of ITM options declines to be a very low level. Overall our results suggest that the arbitrage efficiency in the KOSPI 200 index option markets might be deteriorated after an increasing of option multiplier.

Much debate was brought forth during the South Korean credit card companies' liquidity crisis in 2003. This paper is an in-depth analysis of those credit card issuers' option embedded commercial paper (mentioned as ‘option CP’ henceforth). The main purpose of this paper is in evaluating the ‘option CP's fair value, with the decomposition and analysis on ‘option CP’.

Option CP is stipulated as a CP joined by an OTC credit derivative product. The structure is set so that anyone of the two options, put options and call options, will be executed.

Therefore, the price of option CP excluding the credit option portion will be equal to that of the standard coupon bond at the same maturity.

However, empirical evidence shows otherwise. The evidence clearly states that the option CP yield rates were generally quoted lower than the fair-value rates, even if option premium of credit option portion was included in calculating the value. This evidence has an implication that ‘option CP’s rates are generally issued and traded with unfair value. This paper has significance that it made valuation model of ‘option CP’ and evaluated its fairness, by way of the in-depth analysis of option CP which has not been before.

This paper investigates the lead-lag relationship between the call-put options trading value ratio and the KOSPI 200 returns using Chen, Lung, and Tay (2005, 2006)’s model. We report the evidence conSistent with a pooling equilibrium or that informed trades are executed in both equity and options markets when using all options. That is, KOSPI 200 index options and KOSPI 200 are closely interrelated. However, in case of using the short-term or out-of-the-money options, call-put oPtions trading value ratio uni-directionally leads KOSPI 200 index returns. Also under the volatile market condition, the lead effect of call-put options trading value ratio to KOSPI 200 index returns becomes stronger.

The purpose of this study is to hypothesize that cognitive biases such as nostalgia, rosy retrospection, overconfidence, fading-affect bias and prospect theory affect how to serve in the military. The behaviors of those expecting military service and those who have completed the service differ significantly in evaluating the self and social value of the human capital during the military service. This difference corresponds to the predictions of the cognitive-bias literature. The authors test propositions in option framework. This study’s experimental design proposes a novel military system, a hybrid of conscription and voluntary systems. This study’s results are consistent with the hypothesis, option theory and behavioral economics literature.

This study analyzes whether KOSPI200 option returns can be predicted by call-put implied volatility spreads. Doran et al. (2013) show that call-put implied volatility spreads predict the option returns of a specific moneyness as well as underlying asset returns in the US options market. Our study examines whether the same results are shown in the KOSPI200 options market, which has different characteristics in investor compositions and trading behaviors. According to the results, the call-put implied volatility spreads cannot predict the future returns of the underlying index significantly in the KOSPI200 options market. Only, the call-put spreads can predict the future option returns. More specifically, the increase in implied volatility spreads is able to predict the decrease in call option returns and the increase in put option returns in the KOSPI200 options market. This supports the overreaction hypothesis in all ranges of option moneyness, which is in contrast to the result of Doran et al. (2003).

In this study, we assume that stock prices follow piecewise geometric Brownian motion, a variant of geometric Brownian motion except the ex-dividend date, and find pricing formulas of American call options. While piecewise geometric Brownian motion can effectively incorporate discrete dividends into stock prices without losing consistency, the process results in the lack of closed-form solutions for option prices. We aim to resolve this by providing analytical approximation formulas for American call option prices under this process. Our work differs from other studies using the same assumption in at least three respects. First, we investigate the analytical approximations of American call options and examine European call options as a special case, while most analytical approximations in the literature cover only European options. Second, we provide both the upper and the lower bounds of option prices. Third, our solutions are equal to the exact price when the size of the dividend is proportional to the stock price, while binomial tree results never match the exact option price in any circumstance. The numerical analysis therefore demonstrates the efficiency of our method. Especially, the lower bound formula is accurate, and it can be further improved by considering second order approximations although it requires more computing time.

This paper analyzes implied volatilities (IVs), which are computed from trading records of the KOSPI 200 index option market from January 2005 to December 2014, to examine major characteristics of the market pricing behavior. The data includes only daily closing prices of option transactions for which the daily trading volume is larger than 300 contracts. The IV is computed using the Black-Scholes option pricing model. The empirical findings are as follows;

Firstly, daily averages of IVs have shown very similar behavior to historical volatilities computed from 60-day returns of the KOSPI 200 index. The correlation coefficient of IV of the ATM call options to historical volatility is 0.8679 and that of the ATM put options is 0.8479.

Secondly, when moneyness, which is measured by the ratio of the strike price to the spot price, is very large or very small, IVs of call and put options decrease days to maturity gets longer. This is partial evidence of the jump risk inherent in the stochastic process of the spot price.

Thirdly, the moneyness pattern showed heavily skewed shapes of volatility smiles, which was more apparent during the global financial crises period from 2007 to 2009. Behavioral reasons can explain the volatility smiles. When the moneyness is very small, the deep OTM puts are priced relatively higher due to investors’ crash phobia and the deep ITM calls are valued higher due to investors’ overconfidence and confirmation biases. When the moneyness is very large, the deep OTM calls are priced higher due to investors’ hike expectation and the deep ITM puts are valued higher due to overconfidence and confirmation biases.

Fourthly, for almost all moneyness classes and for all sub-periods, the IVs of puts are larger than the IVs of calls. Also, the differences of IVs of deep OTM put ranges minus IVs of deep OTM calls, which is known to be a measure of crash phobia or hike expectation, shows consistent positive values for all sub-periods. The difference in the financial crisis period is much bigger than in other periods. This suggests that option traders had a stronger crash phobia in the financial crisis.