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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2005

Luz Centeno Stenberg and Mahinda Siriwardana

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling…

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling to deforestation and forestry issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is carried out by comparing different CGE models available in the literature, which have analysed the economic consequences of deforestation and changes in forestry policies.

Findings

The use of CGE models in analysing forestry issues is still in its early stages. There is room for innovation and improvement in the various models used.

Practical implications

The paper emphasises the relevance of general equilibrium analysis in the evaluation of both micro‐ and macro‐economic policies on forestry. It encourages researchers to use general equilibrium analysis in their study of environmental problems.

Originality/value

The paper highlights the contribution and possible benefits of utilising CGE models in analysing environmental problems such as deforestation, especially in the context of environment‐economics trade‐off.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 April 2023

Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.

Findings

Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.

Research limitations/implications

The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.

Originality/value

The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2023

Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…

1606

Abstract

Purpose

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

Findings

The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Practical implications

As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.

Originality/value

The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2009

Xiandong Tan, Zhaoguang Hu, Baoguo Shan and Meng Li

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary policies.

Design/methodology/approach

With the development of electric reform, the impacts of economic policy on demand for electricity will be more and more obvious. It is difficult to analyze the impacts by a conventional model. CGE model is based on the theory of general equilibrium which is put forward by Walras, it describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors of the economic system, a CGE model can recognize that an exogenous change (in policy or from other source) that affects any one part of the economy can produce repercussions throughout the system, it can also analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Findings

A CGE model and a social accounting matrix are established.

Research limitations/implications

Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations which model will be applied.

Practical implications

A very useful model to study the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Originality/value

The new method to analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector in China. The paper aims at policy makers and the researchers who deal with electric power demand and supply.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 38 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2015

Christopher Hannum

– The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.

Design/methodology/approach

Uses a model constructed for Colorado to compare estimates of economic impact of a hypothetical mixed-use development from a CGE model with an input-output (IO) model similar to those commonly used in applied economic impact analysis.

Findings

Economic impact estimates of construction activity are demonstrated to be lower when using a CGE approach as compared to an IO approach while impact estimates of continuing operations of a property are demonstrated to be more accurate and potentially higher using a CGE approach.

Practical implications

A CGE approach as opposed to an IO approach will be particularly useful for practitioners in particular cases where IO models are ill suited to provide meaningful estimates concerning impact of continuing operations. This is especially likely where commercial tenants are unknown or when the development includes a residential component.

Social implications

More complete and accurate assessments of economic impact may positively affect views on property development and redevelopment by the public and government.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the existing literature concerning economic impact analysis of real estate and is the first paper in the field, to the authors’ knowledge; to compare estimates from the standard IO approach to those derived using more sophisticated modeling techniques.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 33 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Ageliki Anagnostou, Vyron Bourelias and Paweł Gajewski

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.

Findings

We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.

Originality/value

Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 1998

Neil Dias Karunaratne

This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented…

1752

Abstract

This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented industrialisation policy. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was formulated to analyse the macroeconomic and sectoral implications of implementing trade liberalisation policies in Thailand. The theoretical structure, database underpinning the model and the solution technique used to generate empirical results are explained. The simulation of trade liberalisation policy has been proxied by an across‐the‐board tariff cut on the sectoral imports. The comparative statics of both the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of trade liberalisation policy simulation over the decade ending in the year 2000 are analysed in detail. The study concludes with some observations on the controversy surrounding the distributional effects of trade liberalisation in Thailand.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 25 no. 6/7/8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2019

Charity Gomo

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

A top-down, bottom-up (TD-BU) model which combines an econometrically estimated labor supply model, a detailed tax-benefit module and a computable general equilibrium model is used in order to analyze the impact of government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa. The paper uses a merged South African income and expenditure household survey and labor force survey for the year 2000, and a South African social accounting matrix as the main data sets.

Findings

Simulation results suggest that doubling of government transfers lead to a 5.5 percent reduction in poverty if a relative poverty measure is used and a 7 percent reduction if an absolute poverty line is used. In addition, simulation results show differences in poverty and inequality measures between the MS-only model and the linked TD-BU model confirming the importance of linking the two models.

Originality/value

The TD-BU approach is important since it explicitly accounts for the following aspects: that labor supply should adjust to changes in the tax-benefit model, general equilibrium effects and the heterogeneity of economic agents. This allows for a richer micro-household modeling.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 46 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 October 2008

Paresh Kumar Narayan

The purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model of the determinants of private investment with a particular focus on the impact of democracy on investment.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to construct an econometric model of the determinants of private investment with a particular focus on the impact of democracy on investment.

Design/methodology/approach

The first step was to econometrically derive the long‐run elasticities; then to modify the Fiji computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate the investment function. Also the econometrically derived long run elasticities in the CGE model were used.

Findings

It was found that democracy has a positive and statistically significant impact on private investment in Fiji. The paper's simulation of Fiji becoming a fully democratic country on investment and other macroeconomic fundamentals, based on a CGE model, reveals that real gross domestic product and real national welfare increase by around 0.01 and 0.05 per cent, respectively; government savings and revenue performance improves; there is a trade balance surplus; and both private consumption and disposable income increase by around 0.05 and 0.12 per cent, respectively.

Originality/value

This is the first study that uses a CGE model to examine the impact of democracy, via investment, on other macroeconomic fundaments. No other study is known to have modelled democracy in a CGE framework.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 35 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 September 2022

Christopher Belford, Delin Huang, Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are…

2011

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.

Findings

The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.

Originality/value

The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

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