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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2005

Luz Centeno Stenberg and Mahinda Siriwardana

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling…

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper reviews recent developments in utilising computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse forestry policies. The paper highlights the application of CGE modelling to deforestation and forestry issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is carried out by comparing different CGE models available in the literature, which have analysed the economic consequences of deforestation and changes in forestry policies.

Findings

The use of CGE models in analysing forestry issues is still in its early stages. There is room for innovation and improvement in the various models used.

Practical implications

The paper emphasises the relevance of general equilibrium analysis in the evaluation of both micro‐ and macro‐economic policies on forestry. It encourages researchers to use general equilibrium analysis in their study of environmental problems.

Originality/value

The paper highlights the contribution and possible benefits of utilising CGE models in analysing environmental problems such as deforestation, especially in the context of environment‐economics trade‐off.

Details

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1477-7835

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 April 2023

Taoyuan Wei and Asbjørn Aaheim

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify the current state of the art and the gaps in the application of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models on studying climate change adaptation.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review is conducted to select, classify and analyze relevant studies from two databases of Web of Science and Scopus.

Findings

Totally, 170 articles based on selected keywords were found from both databases, where 56 articles were duplicates. The authors further excluded 17 articles owing to preliminary exclusion criteria. Hence, 97 papers were selected for full-text review and more detailed assessment. Only a few of the studies explicitly have addressed the role of autonomous adaptation embodied in the CGE models. Over one-third of the studies have focused on planned adaptation without explicitly mentioning autonomous adaptation. Agriculture was the most addressed sector, and country-level models are the most adopted. Only one article has focused on South America.

Research limitations/implications

The review suggests that autonomous adaptation embodied in CGE models was not well addressed in the literature. As the limited studies have shown that autonomous adaptation can dramatically mitigate direct climate change impacts, further studies are needed to examine the importance of the autonomous adaptation for better understanding of climate change impacts. Furthermore, CGE models can provide a joint assessment considering both mitigation and adaptation strategies and management measures as such models have also been widely used to address effects of mitigation measures in the literature.

Originality/value

The studies on climate change adaptation based on CGE models have been systematically reviewed, and state-of-the-art knowledge and research gaps have been identified.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2023

Syed Shoyeb Hossain, Yongwei Cui, Huang Delin and Xinyuan Zhang

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most…

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Abstract

Purpose

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline.

Findings

The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.

Practical implications

As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government.

Originality/value

The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2009

Xiandong Tan, Zhaoguang Hu, Baoguo Shan and Meng Li

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary policies.

Design/methodology/approach

With the development of electric reform, the impacts of economic policy on demand for electricity will be more and more obvious. It is difficult to analyze the impacts by a conventional model. CGE model is based on the theory of general equilibrium which is put forward by Walras, it describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors of the economic system, a CGE model can recognize that an exogenous change (in policy or from other source) that affects any one part of the economy can produce repercussions throughout the system, it can also analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Findings

A CGE model and a social accounting matrix are established.

Research limitations/implications

Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations which model will be applied.

Practical implications

A very useful model to study the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Originality/value

The new method to analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector in China. The paper aims at policy makers and the researchers who deal with electric power demand and supply.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 38 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 April 2016

Inkyo Cheong

Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of…

Abstract

Since it is difficult for researchers to access data for the North Korean economy, they typically choose a proxy economy for estimating the economic impact of the unification of the two Koreas using a computational general equilibrium (CGE). This paper aims to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea out of the 140 economies (countries) in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database version 9.1, which was published in mid-2015. (Ed- if your study aim is ‘to identify the best proxy economy for North Korea’, then you must state your study finding here in the abstract, and also in the conclusion, i.e., Romania) This paper evaluates the input-output (IO) tables for the North Korean economy in existing studies. Comparing the coefficients for North Korea in existing studies with those of the countries selected for this paper, substantial differences were found, especially for the services sector. This casts some doubt on the IO tables in the existing studies on the North Korean economy.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2015

Christopher Hannum

– The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the value of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling for impact analysis of real estate developments and redevelopments.

Design/methodology/approach

Uses a model constructed for Colorado to compare estimates of economic impact of a hypothetical mixed-use development from a CGE model with an input-output (IO) model similar to those commonly used in applied economic impact analysis.

Findings

Economic impact estimates of construction activity are demonstrated to be lower when using a CGE approach as compared to an IO approach while impact estimates of continuing operations of a property are demonstrated to be more accurate and potentially higher using a CGE approach.

Practical implications

A CGE approach as opposed to an IO approach will be particularly useful for practitioners in particular cases where IO models are ill suited to provide meaningful estimates concerning impact of continuing operations. This is especially likely where commercial tenants are unknown or when the development includes a residential component.

Social implications

More complete and accurate assessments of economic impact may positively affect views on property development and redevelopment by the public and government.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the existing literature concerning economic impact analysis of real estate and is the first paper in the field, to the authors’ knowledge; to compare estimates from the standard IO approach to those derived using more sophisticated modeling techniques.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 33 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 1998

Neil Dias Karunaratne

This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented…

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Abstract

This study reviews the emergence of Thailand in the 1990s as the Fifth Tiger economy of Asia following the regime switch from an import substitution to export oriented industrialisation policy. A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was formulated to analyse the macroeconomic and sectoral implications of implementing trade liberalisation policies in Thailand. The theoretical structure, database underpinning the model and the solution technique used to generate empirical results are explained. The simulation of trade liberalisation policy has been proxied by an across‐the‐board tariff cut on the sectoral imports. The comparative statics of both the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of trade liberalisation policy simulation over the decade ending in the year 2000 are analysed in detail. The study concludes with some observations on the controversy surrounding the distributional effects of trade liberalisation in Thailand.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 25 no. 6/7/8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Ageliki Anagnostou, Vyron Bourelias and Paweł Gajewski

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate regional impact of macroeconomic and regional policy impulses, using our newly developed multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for three, structurally distinctive Polish macro-regions.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, we build an interregional social accounting matrix for Poland and use it to develop a small scale, three-region CGE model, reflecting the size of regional economies and cross-regional differences in industrial structures, while also explicitly accounting for the dynamics of main economic relationships across regions, such as interregional flows in commodities, labor and capital. The model is subsequently use to simulate regional effects of various policy impulses.

Findings

We demonstrate important cross-regional differences in the transmission mechanism of macro-level policies, which either affect regional output and its individual components (as in the case of imposing shocks to VAT or PIT rates) or are limited to the components, while preserving a rather uniform impact on output (as in the case of imposing shocks to wages). Furthermore, we contribute to the regional policy equity-efficiency trade-off debate, by illustrating quantitatively how, due to structural differences, spatially targeted expenditure measures might promote either regional convergence or aggregate output growth at the country-level.

Originality/value

Prior to our study, regional CGE models have not been used to simulate spatial distribution of aggregate shocks in Poland or in any other CEE country. Another originality of our study lies in comprehensive evaluation of various policy impulses, from the perspective of their impact on the respective region, spillovers to the other regions and its overall, country-level effect.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 December 2009

Inkyo Cheong and Min Ha Lee

Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to…

Abstract

Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to quantitatively examine the economic impacts of Asian regionalization with the CGE model. This paper confirmed previous findings such as the magnitude of economic impact being proportional to the size of membership and the existence of trade diversion effect within all trade blocs. The subsequent KORUS and Korea-EU FTA imposition upon the built CGE base models further verified the effects of hub-and-spoke-ism in East Asia. Jointly, the simulation results implied that the economic impacts of a trade arrangement heavily depend on the subject economy’s reliance on trade with the participating states. It was also found that the impacts were directly proportional to the accrued trade balance of the subject spoke country with both the hub state and the hub-destination. This could have been exaggerated as the scope of this study was limited to East Asia where KORUS FTA was found to be more influential than Korea-EU FTA due to its exceptionally high reliance on the US. On the course of this research to verify the aforementioned findings, however, both GTAP 6 and 7 were adopted, and hence, the economic impacts of China’s accession to the WTO in the global trade system were also empirically proven.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2021

Elizabeth Louisa Roos and Philip David Adams

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a quantitative assessment of the broad economic effects of tax policy reform in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Design/methodology/approach

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the KSA, three simulations are run. The first simulation is the baseline simulation, which generates growth paths of the Saudi economy in the absence of tax reform. In developing the baseline simulation, this study incorporates forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. The remaining simulations are policy simulations. A policy simulation deviates from the baseline simulation in response to a policy change. In the first policy simulation, this study introduces a value-added tax (VAT) that generates SAR 35bn. This study assumes budget neutrality with the additional tax revenue transferred to households via a lump sum payment. In the second policy simulation, this study introduces a corporate income tax that generates SAR 35bn. This study then calculates and compares the distortion these taxes introduce into the economy.

Findings

This study finds that although the introduction of new taxes increases government tax revenue, markets are distorted lowering efficiency and production. An introduction of VAT increases the cost of consumption relative to the cost of production. As a consequence, the real cost of labour increases lowering employment in the short run. Employment moves to the baseline, as wages adjust capital and real gross domestic product (GDP) is below base throughout the simulation period. The second simulation is an increase in the corporate tax rate with lowers the post-tax rates of return investors receive. This simulation shows that the negative impact on investment, capital and GDP is larger with the introduction of a corporate tax than with the VAT.

Research limitations/implications

Literature focusing on tax policy reform in the Gulf Cooperation Council and, specifically, Saudi Arabia is limited. This paper contributes to the literature by focusing on the following: understanding the impact and mechanisms through which changes in taxation impact the economy more generally; understanding the potential harm caused to allocative efficiency and production due to taxes; and ways in which fiscal reform might complement other reforms such as efforts to diversify the economy, labour market and energy price reforms. This improves the information base available to policymakers charged with designing an optimal tax system that meets all future requirements of a country such as the KSA.

Originality/value

The authors developed and applied a CGE model for the KSA to analyse the impact of VAT and corporate tax on the Saudi economy. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no recent CGE models for Saudi Arabia that have been used for tax policy or quantifying the potential harm to the economy when new taxes are introduced.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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