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The proliferation of terrorism worldwide raises the risk that terrorist strategies could evolve from conventional methods (e.g. suicide attacks) to biological, chemical and even radioactive and nuclear attacks (commonly abbreviated as CBRN) which are potentially much more dangerous. The authors make three contributions toward a better understanding of this risk and how it responds to counterterrorism measures.

The authors develop a game that captures the terrorists’ potential strategic substitution between conventional and CBRN-type attacks; the authors calibrate the parameters of the game to real data using a novel calibration method and a partially unique dataset; they estimate the heavy-tailed distribution of attack severity and thus the probability of a successful attack, the underlying effort to launch an attack and the intrinsic difficulty of launching different types of attacks.

The authors find that in equilibrium, CBRN attacks, though less likely and more difficult to execute, are more deadly. In the end, the trade-off between, on one hand, the greater difficulty of carrying out a CBRN attack, and on the other, the greater deadliness of such an attack, points to a level of optimal counterterrorism spending by governments that weighs toward defending against CBRN attacks. The authors discuss these results and compare them with the actual level of counterterrorism spending by the US Government.

The framework of the game allows for substitution between the conventional and CBRN weapon types. These aspects of this paper, together with the unique calibration methodology, and the use of some unique terrorism data for the first time, are what distinguish this work from similar game theoretic papers in this area.

The purpose of this paper is to develop an EU sociotechnical systems (STSs) map to represent a harmonised concept of operations (CONOPS) as a future development platform for technologies used in multi-services emergency responses to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incidents.

AcciMaps were developed to locate where technologies are currently used, and opportunities for new technologies. The AcciMaps were iteratively co-designed with end users (fire, ambulance, police and military) across three EU countries (the UK, Finland and Greece). Data were collected using document analysis and interviews with senior ranking (Gold or Silver Command level) representatives of the participating end users.

Despite differences in terminology and between service sectors, consensus was achieved for the command structures (Gold, Silver and Bronze), and Hot Zone responders (specialist blue light responders and blue light responders (BLR)). A control room was included as the communication spine. BLR activities were limited by their scope of practice and available equipment, for example, breathing apparatus. The harmonised EU AcciMap offers a high-level STSs map of CBRN response. Critical segments have been identified which offer opportunities for technology developments that can add value in terms of response capabilities (e.g. tag and trace).

A large scale major CBRN incident may need cross-border and cross-professional engagement where efficient interoperability is vital. This research is the first EU consensus of a STS map for CONOPS. It supports future research for technology development, e.g., detection and decontamination equipment design and use, communication, diagnosis and response technologies.

We reformulate regression modeling so that ideas often associated with field theory and social network analysis can be brought to bear at every stage in the computation and interpretation of regression coefficients in studies of organizations. Rather than “transcending” general linear reality, we seek to get more out of it. We formulate a dual to regression modeling based on using the variables to learn about the cases. We illustrate our ideas by applying the new approach to a database of hundreds of violent extremist organizations, focusing on understanding which groups use or pursue unconventional weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear).

Decontamination following chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN)/Hazmat incidents is a critical activity carried out in order to mitigate and contain the risk posed by any hazardous materials involved. Human behaviour plays a crucial role in such incidents, as casualties will have little understanding of the situation they find themselves in, leading to uncertainty in what actions to take. This will result in very difficult circumstances within which first responders must operate. However, the importance of human behaviour appears to be a fundamental element being missed in the preparation, training and planning assumptions being made by emergency services and planners in preparation for these events.

This paper looks to understand the scope of this omission by reviewing relevant literature on the subject and engaging with Fire and Rescue Service personnel and managers in the UK. This study utilised semi-structured interviews with 10 Fire and Rescue Service Mass Decontamination Operatives, four Fire and Rescue Service Hazardous Material Advisers and three Fire and Rescue Service Strategic Officers participating. These interviews were then analysed using a thematic framework to identified key themes from the research which were then validated using two independent researchers to provide an inter-rater reliability measure. Finally, a follow-up validation questionnaire was also developed to test the validity of the themes identified and this was completed by another with 36 Fire and Rescue Service Mass Decontamination Operatives.

Both the literature review and interviews undertaken with emergency responders and mangers demonstrated the crucial importance of accounting for behavioural aspects in these situations especially in regards to the likely levels of compliance to be expected by responders and the potential problem of casualties not remaining at the scene of an incident to undergo decontamination.

This research identifies a number of key themes so far not recognized through any other research and in doing so offers insights into potential flaws in the UK Fire and Rescue Service response planning for CBRN/Hazmat incidents requiring mass decontamination. It is intended that this research will inform further study into the areas identified in order to ensure gaps in planning, training and strategies for mass decontamination operations can be more fully informed and if required allow for a more effective response.

Effective communication has been recognised as an important issue for the management of incidents involving decontamination; evidence shows that failure to communicate effectively may result in increased public anxiety and non‐compliance. This paper aims to examine current provision for communicating with members of the public during decontamination, to facilitate the development of improved responder communication strategies.

To examine the current provision for communicating with members of the public, the authors reviewed open source decontamination guidance documents for responders, as well as published reports of emergency preparedness exercises involving decontamination.

The review of decontamination guidance documents showed that specific guidance for professional responders on how to communicate with the public during incidents that involve decontamination could be improved. Similarly, the review of published decontamination exercises shows that a stronger emphasis on communication with members of the public is needed, in addition to the use of exercises to evaluate the effectiveness of communication strategies.

The present research summarises existing evidence relating to how communication strategies employed by responders can shape public responses to decontamination. Analysed alongside current decontamination guidance for emergency responders, this evidence highlights potential gaps in planning for communicating with members of the public during decontamination. It is hoped that this will promote an increased understanding of the importance of communication during these types of incidents, which will in turn facilitate the development of more comprehensive responder communication strategies.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the decision-making process and provide a decision support framework for deployment of an on-site analytical capacity (a fieldable laboratory (FL)) to contain an expanding outbreak and protect public health.

The FL mission cycle consists of five successive interlinked phases with a set of operational functions (OFs) performed during the mission. The list of phases, OFs and their contents were iteratively developed during and after FL missions and validated with operational partners.

The well-defined structure of the FL domain appears as the best functional basis for tracking the decision-making process across the whole mission cycle. Description of all the FL elements and information flows addresses the major issue of interoperability of resources used by similar international capacities (inter-)acting as operational partners in global response to the crisis.

The work presents the first attempt in this field to systematically describe and chronologically organize the decisions taken by a FL manager and staff during all phases of the FL mission cycle. Definition of OFs with all the related information flows allows for comparison of procedures, their better planning and refining, validation of protocols, mutual training and operational improvement between FLs from different geographical, organizational and cultural origins.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment framework for evaluating the success of knowledge management (KM) initiatives in a government setting.

The approach used was to first conduct a brief review of the leading thinking on KM and intellectual capital (IC) measurement approaches. The selection process used to recommend the results‐based management assessment framework (RMAF) as the most appropriate measurement framework is then discussed together with the development of logic models for all KM objectives. Finally, the validation methodology used, a survey design and data collection methodology, is described.

The study finds that the RMAF framework proved to be a good fit for KM assessment in a government setting.

The evaluation of KM and IC are necessarily organization‐specific. Further research is needed to report on the generalizability of this evaluation approach.

The KM evaluation approach proposed here helped the government organization translate its KM strategy into action and enhanced management of the KM program. The proposed evaluation approach will help ensure that each type of stakeholder receives assessment results in a form that is of greatest use to them.

While there are many KM and IC metrics described in the literature, there have been limited attempts to address the evaluation question from a more holistic perspective. This paper shows how quantitative and qualitative measures can be combined to better assess the success of KM initiatives in a systematic and concrete manner.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the successful use of a knowledge management (KM) model in a public sector organization.

Building on the theoretical foundation of others, this case study demonstrates the value of KM modeling in a science‐based initiative in the Canadian public service.

The Inukshuk KM model, which comprises the five elements of technology, leadership, culture, measurement, and process, provides a holistic approach in public service KM.

The proposed model can be employed by other initiatives to facilitate KM planning and implementation.

This the first project to consider how KM models may be implemented in a Canadian public service environment.

There is an assumption in emergency planning that the public will “panic” or refuse to comply in the event of mass decontamination. This assumption has serious implications for how the public will be managed. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The authors carried out semi-structured interviews with 13 emergency responders, six of whom had experience of incidents involving decontamination. The authors asked them, first, about their experiences of these events and, second, about their expectations for decontamination involving a large crowd. The aim was to explore the extent to which responders perceived non-compliance and anxiety as (crowd) problems during decontamination, and if so, how they felt that they could be addressed.

Responders with experience of decontamination perceived non-compliance and excessive anxiety to be rare, and suggested that orderly behaviour was more common. However, the majority of emergency responders with no experience of decontamination said they expected panic and non-compliance. They therefore emphasised the importance of “controlling”, rather than communicating with, the public.

The authors argue that “control”-based emergency management strategies can impact negatively on the relationship between the public and responders, and hence hinder effective management of an incident. It would therefore be beneficial to provide training for emergency responders on likely public behaviour during incidents involving decontamination.

This research extends previous research by facilitating a detailed understanding of emergency responders’ experiences and perceptions of managing incidents involving decontamination, and showing how these experiences and perceptions can affect the way in which such incidents are managed.