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In the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.

The author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.

The integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.

The close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.

The aim of this paper is to disentangle the contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous relationship between regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity in a developing country, namely Colombia.

The methodology is quantitative. To deal with the problems of endogeneity in the production function and with the law motion of productivity (the Markov process), the authors obtain Total Factor Productivity (TFP) through the Wooldridge’s two equations system that can be jointly estimated under the generalized method of moments framework (GMM). Secondly, to avoid bias we estimate regional business cycles through the Kalman filter. Subsequently, we implement an instrumental variables/generalized method of moments regression (IV/GMM) to capture the contemporaneous and endogenous TFP–GDP cycles’ linkage at the regional level. Lastly, to deal with the non-contemporaneous link, the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) for each region. We also present the corresponding impulse–response functions.

The authors’ general results suggest a remarkable causality, both contemporary and non-contemporary, from productivity to GDP (but not vice versa) in the most developed regions of the country. This implied productivity could influence in the economic growth of regions in short and long runs. These results are different than those expected by economic theory and should be considered by local economic policy makers.

The authors consider that a more detailed analysis should be carried out at the level of each sector within the manufacturing industry to further clarify these findings.

The policy should be oriented to obtaining cutting-edge technologies through subsidies, and also should facilitate the access to financial capital and the investment in R&D laboratories. On the other hand, the link with international trade also must be reinforced because the importing of intermediate inputs and exporting of output allow the firms to obtain embodied technologies, also to incur on learning by exporting and importing processes and finally to gain experience and competitiveness in foreign markets.

The causality in the region that provides more than 50% of economic activity within the country (Third region) is only in one directional, from TFP towards gross domestic product (GDP) and not vice versa. As the influence from GDP towards TFP is minimal in the remaining regions, the manufacturing productivity influences both short and long run regional economic growth in Colombia. This implies that economic policy at the level of macro-region must be modified; the government should give additional support to the manufacturing sector, especially in developed regions and for the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (wich represent 92% of manufacturing firms) to increase economic growth in the future.

The authors’ contribution is threefold. First, they pay special attention to the contemporaneous cyclical relationship (i.e. pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical or acyclic) and the non-contemporaneous causality with productivity. Second, they estimate productivity with the GMM two equation system considering an endogenous Markov process. Third, to the best of their knowledge, at least in the case of Latin America, there are no studies in this direction combining these statistic methods, including that of Colombia.

This research analyzes the cycle of the dry bulk shipping market (DBSM) as a representative of spot and period charter rates in dry bulk shipping to develop strategies for investment timing (i.e. asset play) and fleet trading (chartering strategy).

Spectral analysis is a numerical approach to extract significant cyclicality, which may be utilized to develop trading strategies. Instead of working with a single dataset (univariate), a system approach can be utilized to observe a significant shipping market cycle in its multi-variate circumstance. In this paper, a system dynamics design is employed to extract cyclicality in the DBSM in its particular industrial environment. The system dynamic design has competitive forecasting accuracy relative to univariate time series models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in terms of forecasting outcomes.

The results show that the system dynamic design has a better forecasting performance according to three evaluation metrics, mean absolute scale error (MASE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Cyclical analysis is a significantly useful instrument for shipping asset management, particularly in market entry–exit operations. This paper investigated the cyclical nature of the dry bulk shipping business and estimated significant business cycle periodicity at around 4.5-year frequency (i.e. the Kitchin cycle).

The purpose of this study is to focus deeply on the short term to explain the relative long-term evolution of the Argentinian economy in the long and the short term.

The study of the long-term evolution of the Argentine economy and identifying the moment in which it began to lose ground compared to other developed economies, such as Australia and Canada, constitutes the central axis of the historiography of this country. However, an additional problem presented by the Argentine economy is its high volatility. For this reason, the long term should be influenced by the short term, an issue that requires a more detailed study of the cyclical behavior and a deep analysis of the relationship between the long and the short term.

The results obtained point to a cyclical development that influences the long-term evolution and, therefore, explains Argentina’s convergence process with Australia and Canada. Frequent deep busts and short booms characterize the Argentine cycle, offsetting its long-term growth potential.

Although the long term has been profusely studied in Argentina, the short term has not been analyzed to the same extent, which is surprising given the extreme volatility of this economy (Prebisch, 1950). The studies performed on economic cycles have always been partial, disconnected from the long term and carried out without much technical rigor.

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

The authors build a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous commodity production. There are five exogenous processes: a country-specific interest rate shock that responds to commodity price fluctuations, a productivity (TFP) shock for each sector and a commodity price shock. Both TFP and commodity price shocks are composed of unanticipated and anticipated components.

The authors show that news shocks to commodity prices lead to higher output, investment and consumption, and a countercyclical movement in the trade-balance-to-output ratio. The authors also show that commodity price news shocks explain about 24% of output aggregate fluctuations in the small open economy.

Given the importance of both anticipated and unanticipated commodity price shocks, policymakers should pay attention to developments in commodity markets when designing policies to attenuate the business cycles. Future research should investigate the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies in SOE subject to news shocks in commodity prices.

This paper contributes to the knowledge of the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies highlighting the importance of a new source: news shocks in commodity prices.